10/25/2009 FCST: TX/OK

[Erik Burns]

Well things are looking interesting for the 25th. Decent CAPE finally moving into the southern plains on the order of 1,700- 2,000 j/kg. Excellent turning with height. Forecast sounding showing a very nice right curve hodograph though not terribly large but should do the job. Decent Dryline moving into the NW-N Texas area around 0z. LLJ slightly out of the SW but does not appear to be bringing in any dry air. I think there will be a couple hour window for a discrete supercell mode and possibly a tornado or two. After the main forcing arrives storm mode will become more linear and line out along the cold front and over take the DL. Cold front seems to stay far enough north to let the dry line get going with some discrete cells. I would say at this point the most favorable area is NW and N Texas. Worried about storms further north in OK getting undercut. Another worry is if there will be enough moisture in place. If moisture can become established we could see a few nice storms tomorrow with some surprises.

 

[Chris Lott]

I've been watching this potential for a couple of days also Erik. Dewpoints seemed to recover nicely overnight with the jet coming into the area. Dew's are already up to around 63 at Temple and almost 60 at Waco. The cloud cover has me worried right now, holding back potential instability. Still hoping the cloud cover can burn off and allow for some good surface heating later this afternoon. Still not sure where I will go. I'm going to watch satellite and surface obs throughout the day and decide later when and where to go, IF it doesn't turn into something that will go after dark.