10/22/05 FCST: Tropical Storm Alpha

Advisories will be initiated at 5pm for Tropical Storm Alpha. Alpha currently has a pretty good satellite structure, though there is some shear partly caused by the anticyclone over Wilma. There is pretty good consensus from numerical models to bring Alpha very near Haiti, where devastating flooding may occur. This type of track tends to result in many fatalities from floods and landslides, so Alpha MAY (that's a HUGE may) otherwise be a cyclone whos name is retired, but it's WAAAAY to early to know her (EDIT: I have since been correct -- Alpha is a male, thus it's HIS) impact on land. Forward motion should remain rather fast, so any time over land shouldn't be too great, thought the mountainous terrain will likely disrupt the shallow rotation.

The 6z GFDL actually brings Alpha to Cat 4 (!) over the western Atlantic, almost entirely due to VERY fast forward motion. In this case, the GFDL shows a very small area of Cat 4 wind over the se quad, and <34kts over the ne quad, with, indicative of the very asymmetric flow associated with mainly very high translational speed.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051022 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800 051024 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 68.5W 17.7N 70.8W 19.3N 72.9W 22.0N 74.5W
BAMM 16.5N 68.5W 18.0N 70.7W 19.7N 72.3W 22.4N 73.5W
A98E 16.5N 68.5W 18.1N 70.5W 19.4N 72.4W 21.3N 73.6W
LBAR 16.5N 68.5W 17.9N 70.3W 19.7N 71.9W 22.3N 73.2W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800 051027 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 74.4W 38.9N 64.8W 37.7N 40.3W 28.1N 37.8W
BAMM 26.9N 72.9W 39.1N 63.4W 39.8N 40.8W 30.2N 33.3W
A98E 26.0N 72.2W 34.2N 63.9W 38.6N 46.5W 30.4N 31.4W
LBAR 26.5N 72.8W 42.1N 57.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS 39KTS
DSHP 43KTS 46KTS 46KTS 29KTS
 
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