Jeff Snyder
EF5
Advisories will be initiated at 5pm for Tropical Storm Alpha. Alpha currently has a pretty good satellite structure, though there is some shear partly caused by the anticyclone over Wilma. There is pretty good consensus from numerical models to bring Alpha very near Haiti, where devastating flooding may occur. This type of track tends to result in many fatalities from floods and landslides, so Alpha MAY (that's a HUGE may) otherwise be a cyclone whos name is retired, but it's WAAAAY to early to know her (EDIT: I have since been correct -- Alpha is a male, thus it's HIS) impact on land. Forward motion should remain rather fast, so any time over land shouldn't be too great, thought the mountainous terrain will likely disrupt the shallow rotation.
The 6z GFDL actually brings Alpha to Cat 4 (!) over the western Atlantic, almost entirely due to VERY fast forward motion. In this case, the GFDL shows a very small area of Cat 4 wind over the se quad, and <34kts over the ne quad, with, indicative of the very asymmetric flow associated with mainly very high translational speed.
The 6z GFDL actually brings Alpha to Cat 4 (!) over the western Atlantic, almost entirely due to VERY fast forward motion. In this case, the GFDL shows a very small area of Cat 4 wind over the se quad, and <34kts over the ne quad, with, indicative of the very asymmetric flow associated with mainly very high translational speed.
