Robert Dewey
EF5
Thread for your reports - There should be quite a few reports since if was a VERY active day! :lol: :lol: 
10/22/04 REPORTS: Plains/midwest
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
- Status
Dan Christianson
Yeah i got a big CLOUD CLOUD CLOUD wedge and some nasty Cu 's
Shane Adams
Left at noon, drove to Gainesville, got back home by 5pm. Sat there for a few hours hoping the sun would work over the cloudiness just east of 35 and provide a shot at some supercells before dark and before the Pine Lake region. Waited for the 20Z outlook, wasn't impressed, so here I am. Not surprised. This time of year, sustems that are worth messing with are clear by the time you leave...today was like asking a question then shaking the Magic 8 Ball.
Tainted my stats for the year, but we were there if anything had happened. Didn't see or hear a single other chaser all day. And I didn't expect to. Thanks to Tom Tackett & Dwain Warner for the nowcasting!!!
Tainted my stats for the year, but we were there if anything had happened. Didn't see or hear a single other chaser all day. And I didn't expect to. Thanks to Tom Tackett & Dwain Warner for the nowcasting!!!
Mike Hollingshead
Headed nw for an area between Norfolk and Yankton just hoping the boundary would surge east quicker then the latest trend had wanted, since TDs were east. After 50 miles I stopped at the library in West Point to look at 18z ruc just to see what it thought about the way the sfc low would react. It painted a sad sad picture keeping it west much much longer then progged. All out there by itself with sunshine and no moisture. At that point I was like, heck I've left and driven this far I might as well keep it honest and drove nw to the edge of the instability axis. On the way west of Wayne I saw Chris Lenz going east. I see him on so many chases it's crazy. I figured he was either heading home for the day or knew of something I didn't like something going up on the warmfront or something. I kept going and pulled over north of Norflok and a few minutes later he pulled up behind me. We enjoyed the weather and talked about the year's storms for about an hour or maybe more. I gained about 20 occupants while sitting there(damn flies). We both headed for home well before sunset.
Funny gas station story in town here. I got back and had a craving for rice krispies treats bars. I grabbed three and went to pay for them. The lady was facing the other way and picking up a box. She turns around and says, "mmmmmm, these looked so much better yesterday" and laughs while looking at the one cinamon roll left in the box. Then she says, "I had some last night while on the can at the mall, someone probably thought something was going on in there they were so good". I was like, why in thee hell are you telling me this.
Funny gas station story in town here. I got back and had a craving for rice krispies treats bars. I grabbed three and went to pay for them. The lady was facing the other way and picking up a box. She turns around and says, "mmmmmm, these looked so much better yesterday" and laughs while looking at the one cinamon roll left in the box. Then she says, "I had some last night while on the can at the mall, someone probably thought something was going on in there they were so good". I was like, why in thee hell are you telling me this.
Amos Magliocco
EF5
Well, I'll post a non-report, too, since my homeboys did. I saw three major tornadoes, one waterspout over a swimming pool, and a partridge in a pear tree.
No.
I went from Lawrence to Emporia to Manhattan before heading back east to my currently undisclosed location somewhere in North America. Trough was too slow, dryslot didn't move east fast enough, moisture mixed out from west to east before either the dryline or pac front got its confluent act together.
What else what wrong? Plenty. But while I know a lot of chasers who went out today, I don't know one who thought this was a great-looking setup. I think we all had our expectations appropriately calibrated and that made the whole chase easier for me. I made it a point to enjoy the scenery on 177 in Kansas and to stop out in the middle of nowhere and sit in back of my truck and watch the sky. The convective weather sucked, but the drive was great. Also met up with my friend Tony Laubach and his chase partner Jon Merage, so it was cool to reminisce with those guys about the heady days of May 2004 and some other chase experiences we had in common.
Tomorrow I'll meander back into the Hoosier state, the southern part of which is currently spectacular with the colors of fall in the forested hill country. I'm hoping to see the sun!
Amos
No.
I went from Lawrence to Emporia to Manhattan before heading back east to my currently undisclosed location somewhere in North America. Trough was too slow, dryslot didn't move east fast enough, moisture mixed out from west to east before either the dryline or pac front got its confluent act together.
What else what wrong? Plenty. But while I know a lot of chasers who went out today, I don't know one who thought this was a great-looking setup. I think we all had our expectations appropriately calibrated and that made the whole chase easier for me. I made it a point to enjoy the scenery on 177 in Kansas and to stop out in the middle of nowhere and sit in back of my truck and watch the sky. The convective weather sucked, but the drive was great. Also met up with my friend Tony Laubach and his chase partner Jon Merage, so it was cool to reminisce with those guys about the heady days of May 2004 and some other chase experiences we had in common.
Tomorrow I'll meander back into the Hoosier state, the southern part of which is currently spectacular with the colors of fall in the forested hill country. I'm hoping to see the sun!
Amos
mikedeason
EF5
Sounds like I had the best fortune of the day. I at least got to witness a decent light show on the way back home to GRI, down US281 between Spencer, NE and Bartlett, NE. Otherwise, pretty much the same deal as everyone else.
Well, you've got to roll the dice in October when it may happen in your back yard.
Regards,
Mike
Well, you've got to roll the dice in October when it may happen in your back yard.
Regards,
Mike
Tony Laubach
EF5
What a day! My chase partner, Jon Merage, and myself left Denver Thursday night around 10:30, stopping over night in Colby, then heading east along I-70 into Manhatten, Kansas. We met up with Amos Magliocco and chewed the fat with him at Di Dee's (something like that) before we split. Jon and I headed back towards Salina where we stopped in Junction City..
Then it happened. It was huge! I haven't seen anything that big in a while! I couldn't believe this was being served to me! It was so rare and incredible! It was one of the better steaks I've had in ages.. Champs Grill in Junction City, Friday night special; 16oz Strip Steak.. major yums! Oh yeah, forgot the wonderful sunset on the way back.
Special thanks to Jon for sharing his vehicle for this trip. I didn't get the exact mileage from Denver to here as I forgot to check the odometer, but it was literally a voyage along I-70 from Denver to Manhatten and back, so I'll figure it from there. Amos, good to see you again, dude! I don't imagine I'll be out again this season, so I'll see you in February.. by the way, I owe you for that little tornado stunt you pulled! :lol: Thanks man!
Then it happened. It was huge! I haven't seen anything that big in a while! I couldn't believe this was being served to me! It was so rare and incredible! It was one of the better steaks I've had in ages.. Champs Grill in Junction City, Friday night special; 16oz Strip Steak.. major yums! Oh yeah, forgot the wonderful sunset on the way back.
Special thanks to Jon for sharing his vehicle for this trip. I didn't get the exact mileage from Denver to here as I forgot to check the odometer, but it was literally a voyage along I-70 from Denver to Manhatten and back, so I'll figure it from there. Amos, good to see you again, dude! I don't imagine I'll be out again this season, so I'll see you in February.. by the way, I owe you for that little tornado stunt you pulled! :lol: Thanks man!
Kurt Silvey
EF4
Uh …pretty much the same as everybody else except I was on a different road. Headed north up I -29 figuring on reaching the sun-bleached humid lands of se SD. Stopped in Onawa IA for an update and realized the burn-off was never going to happen. Personal note; IA libraries have lighting fast network connections. Anyway hung around and read the latest edition of Mother Earth News, then bugged out for home. Grabbed a quick gas station sausage with mustard, not quite the same as Tony’s steak, but still good, and made it home in time to go to the UNO hockey game. Watched them thump Western Michigan 7-3. Six months till May. I might have to try an early trip deep into the heart of Texas this year. :lol:
Weird talking about hockey in a chase report
Weird talking about hockey in a chase report
Jon Miller
EF2
I was in the Des Moine area on Thurs.(on vacation) so decided to go on a quick Friday chase to w/nw west Iowa. Made several library stops on the way to look at satellite and other data. Due to the ongoing cloud cover into the afternoon I didn't have great hope for anything to happen. Satellite pictures didn't give much encouragement showing clearing way west in Ne and up in S. Dakota. SPC Mesoscale analysis page was showing strong low still out in western Ne which tempered my hopes even further. Headed north up I-29. Made it as far as Vermillion about 4:30. Sky's were clearing out to north west but no hints of any storm developement-not so much as a raindrop for me. With sunset only an hour or so off -concluded that storms probably weren't going to fire up & this chase was BUST and headed east to start my trip back home to Ohio.
Still was fun though .
Jon Miller
`
Still was fun though .
Jon Miller
`
Jason Hetzel
EF0
bust 
yeah same here guys. nick and i decided to head out early to be in somewhere nnw of des moines iowa where everything was looking to be coming together for a decent show. turns out that when we got there spc was still calling for activity to develop then later in the evening a watch was being anticipated and so we decided to head up to somewhere just south of storm lake iowa. we waited and saw nothing come into effect so we stayed for a bit then headed back at 2:30AM this morning. i guess we all learned that even though such setups look very nice on a map they arent so good on land. then again we have all been through a bust or will be so it makes sense. we have decided to go no further than indiana for the remainder of the post-season. we then will head out in may to the plains for maybe a while and hang around and finish what we tried to start this year. so gl to everybody from here until winter coming up. these late systems are like april systems with cells moving very quickly to intercept. gl all!
Jason Hetzel
yeah same here guys. nick and i decided to head out early to be in somewhere nnw of des moines iowa where everything was looking to be coming together for a decent show. turns out that when we got there spc was still calling for activity to develop then later in the evening a watch was being anticipated and so we decided to head up to somewhere just south of storm lake iowa. we waited and saw nothing come into effect so we stayed for a bit then headed back at 2:30AM this morning. i guess we all learned that even though such setups look very nice on a map they arent so good on land. then again we have all been through a bust or will be so it makes sense. we have decided to go no further than indiana for the remainder of the post-season. we then will head out in may to the plains for maybe a while and hang around and finish what we tried to start this year. so gl to everybody from here until winter coming up. these late systems are like april systems with cells moving very quickly to intercept. gl all!
Jason Hetzel
Robert Dewey
EF5
Re: bust
I don't know, but I think Bill Schintler pretty much called this one, since one of the big killers in this event was cloud cover -
From the forecast thread:
I don't know, but I think Bill Schintler pretty much called this one, since one of the big killers in this event was cloud cover -
From the forecast thread:
Bill Schintler
EF4
I was banking on the warm air sector making it a bit further NE
into SWRN MN, with a WF and sharp temperature gradient - my FCST
target was Marshall, MN... I had thought that cells should fire just SW
of this area and then cross the WF into a region of nicely back
low-level flow before quickly becoming elevated in the cool BL air.
So what happened? The main thing was that the significant PVA,
mid-level cooling, and surface cyclogenesis and convergence associated
with the vorticity lobe arrived significantly later then the 00Z ETA
(24 hr - the night before) suggested.
For the record, here are the ETA progged surface low
positions/strengths for 7 PM CDT Fri = 00Z Saturday (GFS and UKMET
were similar but slightly less progressive):
ETA 72 hr: 986 mb/MWM
ETA 60 hr: 990 mb/RWF (GFS 60 hr: 992 mb/AQP)
ETA 48 hr: 992 mb/MJQ
I don't recall the more recent ETA runs, although I do recall a slight
westward progression of the surface low between 36 and 24 hr, while the depth remained fairly constant.
Actual 00Z Sat. analysis: 992 mb/ONL, or about 150 mi WSW of the 48
hr ETA.
Summary: the ETA, 24 hrs +, generally was over progressive with
regard to location of the PVA and the EWRD progression of the surface features.
Now, what about the Friday morning guidance (based on 12Z Friday data)? It's interesting to note
that *none* of the Friday morning 12Z guidance (for 00Z Sat = 12 hr)
developed any real QPF in the FA. Additionally, no decent surface
boundary was suggested except for the CF/Low way out to the W. This alone should have raised a red flag! My past experience with these sorts of systems is that severe WX (or any convection) is much more likely when strong surface convergence and well defined QPF bullseye is suggested by guidance based on the morning 12Z data.
To the contrary, it is interesting to note that the yesterday morning guidance all developed a huge QPF field in central/eastern IA for the period between 03Z Sat and 09Z, which did *not* happen for the most part! The NWS actually had a 100% chance of rain for the overnight period in Eastern IA - and nothing happened here (Iowa City) besides some evening showers and drizzle.
So what did I learn: In these dynamic synoptic systems, be *very*
suspect if the (12Z data, morning of the FCST) models don't give any
QPF or weak/ill-define QPF; or if boundaries are not *obvious* and
consistent between models. If this is the case, the guidence may be
smarter then you think, and you might be looking at a bust.
I think was a bit of wish-casting going around yesterday?
Comments? - bill
into SWRN MN, with a WF and sharp temperature gradient - my FCST
target was Marshall, MN... I had thought that cells should fire just SW
of this area and then cross the WF into a region of nicely back
low-level flow before quickly becoming elevated in the cool BL air.
So what happened? The main thing was that the significant PVA,
mid-level cooling, and surface cyclogenesis and convergence associated
with the vorticity lobe arrived significantly later then the 00Z ETA
(24 hr - the night before) suggested.
For the record, here are the ETA progged surface low
positions/strengths for 7 PM CDT Fri = 00Z Saturday (GFS and UKMET
were similar but slightly less progressive):
ETA 72 hr: 986 mb/MWM
ETA 60 hr: 990 mb/RWF (GFS 60 hr: 992 mb/AQP)
ETA 48 hr: 992 mb/MJQ
I don't recall the more recent ETA runs, although I do recall a slight
westward progression of the surface low between 36 and 24 hr, while the depth remained fairly constant.
Actual 00Z Sat. analysis: 992 mb/ONL, or about 150 mi WSW of the 48
hr ETA.
Summary: the ETA, 24 hrs +, generally was over progressive with
regard to location of the PVA and the EWRD progression of the surface features.
Now, what about the Friday morning guidance (based on 12Z Friday data)? It's interesting to note
that *none* of the Friday morning 12Z guidance (for 00Z Sat = 12 hr)
developed any real QPF in the FA. Additionally, no decent surface
boundary was suggested except for the CF/Low way out to the W. This alone should have raised a red flag! My past experience with these sorts of systems is that severe WX (or any convection) is much more likely when strong surface convergence and well defined QPF bullseye is suggested by guidance based on the morning 12Z data.
To the contrary, it is interesting to note that the yesterday morning guidance all developed a huge QPF field in central/eastern IA for the period between 03Z Sat and 09Z, which did *not* happen for the most part! The NWS actually had a 100% chance of rain for the overnight period in Eastern IA - and nothing happened here (Iowa City) besides some evening showers and drizzle.
So what did I learn: In these dynamic synoptic systems, be *very*
suspect if the (12Z data, morning of the FCST) models don't give any
QPF or weak/ill-define QPF; or if boundaries are not *obvious* and
consistent between models. If this is the case, the guidence may be
smarter then you think, and you might be looking at a bust.
I think was a bit of wish-casting going around yesterday?
Comments? - bill
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