Heidi Farrar
EF3
- Joined
- Sep 26, 2007
- Messages
- 217
Monday is the looking like the most promising day for severe activity that we've seen since early Spring (at least in the Ozarks).
GFS is showing nice mid to low-level shear, but as the SPC's Day 3 convective outlook would allude, there are still questions marks when it comes to the presence of ample instability at the right time. After considering the models and reading what the SPC has to offer, this is looking as though it could play out similarly to 09/22/06, when that day saw strong remnants of a MCS come through in the early morning hours (and subsequent day-time heating destabilizing the atmosphere sufficiently); an organized tornadic system move through in early afternoon; and then a third line of discrete tornadic supercells (which eventually became linear) form ahead of the cold front only a few hours later. I realize that there is a lot of wishful thinking involved to in any way expect that same scenario to play out again on Monday, but I have to say that I was intrigued by the SPC's suggestion of "...PERHAPS SOME STORM RE-INITIATION BACK W CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT" after the initial event. Regardless, this is the best outlook this region has seen in quite some time. My camera is ready!
GFS is showing nice mid to low-level shear, but as the SPC's Day 3 convective outlook would allude, there are still questions marks when it comes to the presence of ample instability at the right time. After considering the models and reading what the SPC has to offer, this is looking as though it could play out similarly to 09/22/06, when that day saw strong remnants of a MCS come through in the early morning hours (and subsequent day-time heating destabilizing the atmosphere sufficiently); an organized tornadic system move through in early afternoon; and then a third line of discrete tornadic supercells (which eventually became linear) form ahead of the cold front only a few hours later. I realize that there is a lot of wishful thinking involved to in any way expect that same scenario to play out again on Monday, but I have to say that I was intrigued by the SPC's suggestion of "...PERHAPS SOME STORM RE-INITIATION BACK W CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT" after the initial event. Regardless, this is the best outlook this region has seen in quite some time. My camera is ready!
