10/14/07 NOW: TX / OK / KS

[Jeff Snyder]

Initiation occurring in far SW OK attm, with other convection developing well east of the front/dryline SW of Lawton. I'm not really sure what's forcing that convection, and, for all I know, it may be a sort of warm-air advection regime that way. A weak boundary appears to lie NW/SE near the Red River, with convection giving it a go NE of Hollis. We're currently in Snyder, likely heading NNW to Hobart soon. Low-level shear is hurting a bit immediately along the dryline and front were relatively weak 700-800mb flow resides. CAPE >2000 j/kg S of I40 and W of I44 in SW OK looks to support significant supercells upon maturation of convection.

 

[Martin North]

There are a number of cells going up...from Beckham Co down to the TX border.

I would suggest those in Altus (there are a few there) are making their move N now towards Blair and beyond...

 

[Ilya Neyman]

Does anybody have any clue on whether or not that activity moving across the Red River is elevated or more surface-based?

 

[Marc Remillard]

I agree Martin, there is some very good potential for a supercell west of Altus as the boundary explodes in unstable atmosphere. Looks like LCL is lower in central OK, where the storms will move.

 

[Martin North]

I agree Martin, there is some very good potential for a supercell west of Altus as the boundary explodes in unstable atmosphere. Looks like LCL is lower in central OK, where the storms will move.

The Cell(s) on the border of Greer and Harmon are my thinking. I reckon to be tracking these North.

These can only go severe now...

That new cell going up in SW Kiowa is catching my eye though...

 

[David Drummond]

Does anybody have any clue on whether or not that activity moving across the Red River is elevated or more surface-based?

I am just east of it. Definitely elevated right now. Kickin' out some nice CGs and thunder though.

 

[Martin North]

That cell about to tag Hobart looks to be rotating on doppler...

There...they've just 'Warned' it as I write..

 

[John Wetter]

I am just east of it. Definitely elevated right now. Kickin' out some nice CGs and thunder though.

It would appear to be becoming surface based... Edwards just reported a funnel half way to the ground near Hobart via spotternetwork. Cell still looks pretty good on radar, though still just an SVR on it from OUN.

-John

 

[Marc Remillard]

The cell that passed through Hobart is looking good. It has a TVS on NEXRAD data. Other storms are still initiating from south.