10/12/09: CA Forecast

[Rob Wadsworth]

The NWS has announced that the remnant of Typhoon Melor is to come onshore in Central CA.
At this time, storm surge hasn't been mentioned - not that I've seen so far. The coast and valley areas are to receive up to 5 inches of rain, and the nearby Santa Cruz Mts are to receive up to 8 inches. Sixty mph winds are also expected. Urban stream flooding is also a possibility at the time of this NWS report.


I live in the South Bay Area, so I will probably write up a NOWCAST this Monday. That is, if I don't lose both power and internet. This is supposed to be a lollapalooza. We get one of these type of storms RARELY around here, so any info ST members have to contribute on the characteristics of this storm -at this time- would help me considerably.
Thank You.

 

[Will Wilkens]

I live in southern California. As of now, the farthest south impact will be around Santa Barbara based on NWS LOX, but I'm hoping for some enhancement to get down another 100 miles as we close in on the target date.

 

[Jody Radzik]

As I understand it, the energy from this front is coming from a more northern upper level system. It's just the moisture from Melor getting entrained in a pineapple express-type scenario that's a classic El Nino set-up.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It's funny, I live in Southern CA, too, and I'm hoping the whole mess just stays to the N. If I can't be in a real hurricane, I just want it to be hot and sunny. There's nothing more depressing than the leftover entrails of some previously great cyclone.

 

[Jody Radzik]

But it may have a ferocity nonetheless, with 60 mph gusts and a lot of rain, bringing flood potential and maybe a lot of snow in the mountains, which is good news in my book.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

But it may have a ferocity nonetheless, with 60 mph gusts and a lot of rain, bringing flood potential and maybe a lot of snow in the mountains, which is good news in my book.

Well, I hope you enjoy it up there. I'll continue to sniff way down south-- around Acapulco and Manzanillo-- for my kind of cyclone.

 

[Will Wilkens]

Looks like models are getting in better agreement for bringing 2 inches of rain down into SoCal, possibly as far south as San Diego. We'll have to see how each run evolves over the next couple days. We really need this rain, maybe not such a deluge in a short period of time, but you can't argue that we need it.