10/05/2004 FCST: CO Front Range

[Tony Laubach]

With storms firing this afternoon, tomorrow's setup looks very similar. If a Denver Cyclone can develop again tomorrow, convergence along it will likely aid in storm development. CAPES tomorrow are running as high as 1000J/kg on the Plains, so if today's setup repeats tomorrow, with my evening off, I may find myself playing the October field in the Front Range?!?! Will keep an eye on things through tomorrow morning, but will be planning an afternoon escape out east!

Tomorrow may be a quasi-chase in terms of equipment as most of my stuff is packed away.. going to be a simple camera and HAM chase if things should warrent.. 2 things against me (not weather); an exam which starts at 3; and dreaded traffic (which would take me an hour to get out of town). We'll see, as I work in the labs til 2:45, so I'll have up til then to make a decision.. may ask the teacher for an earlier exam time! *wink*

 

[Jay McCoy]

Since there isnt a now section I will post here.
Tornado watch #850 issued for New Mexico
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN CO AT THIS TIME.
THERMAL GRADIENT DUE TO CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDS SE-NW ACROSS
AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE/LIFT. AIR MASS SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND STORMS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY
COULD PRODUCE SOME TORNADOES ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LARGE HAIL.

We are getting tons of rain in amarillo and it isnt going to stop for about 36 hours. then on and off rain through friday. I think we are going to need a boat. I have to work so no chasing for me today