1/7/08 NOW: OK, KS, AR, TX, MO, LA, IA, IL

[Brian Emfinger]

Figured it was time for the NOW:

Storms are intensifying across SE Ok and new storms have just popped up near Fort Smith. Winds are beginning to back at several stations across these areas...especially extreme SE OK (McCurtain County) where the strongest storm was located. I still expect most of the stronger storms to hold off till later (0-3z) but its encouraging that storms are developing and strengthening and winds are beginning to back.

Strong storms are also in SE KS and soon to move into W MO. As Karen and others mentioned in the FCST thread this area and into Central OK has veered winds so I doubt they would strengthen much more.

I am going to go ahead and leave home and head W on 40 towards Fort Smith. I wish I was already there as that storm north of there is strengthening pretty good.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Cell east of KIRK, Mo showing high reflectivity, and some rotation.. Don't have any radar software with me (School), but RIDGE Radar shows it to be a nice cell, and it is moving into an unstable environment, where latest MSAS shows high effective shear, and High Supercell Composite Parameters.

EDIT:: TOR WATCH ISSUED!!

 

[Shane Adams]

Despite the slight scouring of moisture over the late morning/early afternoon, I remain pessimistically-optimistic about a sleeper storm in southern Oklahoma. Obviously further east is the play (for the best shot at severe), but I can't help but wonder what the RUC has been up to with today's runs, consistently putting convection in a NE/SW-oriented line, but displaying a more broken-line/cluster appearance as opposed to an outright squall line. And with each passing run, the SW tip of this convection extends further and further south. It's highly-unlikely, but I can't resist hanging around here in Ardmore and seeing what happens around 4pm. It's basically up to the surface winds, which I hope will find some kind of meso/microscale magic and back themselves in the vicinity of any storm.

My other "possible" is to wander northeast from here, perhaps towards Ada, and see what happens by later in the evening.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Again, Tor Watch 1 Issued for KS/IL/MO..

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

I will be staying put!!

http://weather.cod.edu/kamala/offs/KWNS/0801071948.acus11.html
http://weather.cod.edu/kamala/offs/KWNS/0801071953.wwus20.html

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

My CHASE PARTNER AND I WILL BE HEADING OUT ABOUT 5PM AND HEADING WEST TOWARDS JOPLIN AND THEN SOUTH ALONG US 71 TOWARDS FAYETTEVILLE. HOPEFULLY THE STORMS WONT BE TOTALLY LINEAR TONIGHT. I EXPECT A WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SW MISSOURI FROM 4PM TO MIDNIGHT. STORMS LOOK IMPRESSIVE ACROSS SE KANSAS ON UP INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AT THIS TIME, BUT I FEEL THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND NOCTURNAL JET WILL TRIGGER A BETTER CHASE SCENERIO AFTER 6PM.

IMO
BUDDY

 

[Chad Cowan]

It's amazing how much the models undershot the instability for today. I wonder if the melting snow pack and under-initialized sfc temps had a hand in that...? The new Day 1 has 5% tor probs all the way up into Chicago! I don't think there was a single model run in the past week that had 500+ CAPE any further N or E than STL and yet here we are at 22z with 2hrs of daylight with 1000+ sfc CAPE.

Cheers to Dick McGowan, Tony Lyza, and Joel Wright who called the northern target in the FCST thread. You guys saw something the SPC missed.

 

[David Drummond]

First watch of the year so a quick reminder:

(3) Prohibited content. Users may NOT post the following:
* Weather bulletins and forecast images, except as brief excerpts, in moderation, and with an explanation of their meteorological relevance;

Everyone here already knows where to find this content.

 

[Rodney Price]

Nice hail spike showing up from EAX's radar 1.3 deg. slice on the Benton County storm. Web camera to the southwest of the storm doesn't show anything interesting but the clouds are racing!

http://24.182.136.174/

Rodney

 

[Taylor Pechacek]

Hey all...

Any thoughts on the storm in far southwest Ogle Co. IL near Rockford. Looks like some rotation developing and a well developed updraft per the VIL output.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Very impressive couplet crossing from Benton into Morgan Co.'s in Missouri; no surprise there's a spotter-indicated funnel cloud in association with this. Towns of Stover (pop. ~1000) and Versailles (pop. ~2500) look to be in the immediate path. Cannot find any immediate information as to whether or not sirens exist in this area (anyone know?), they are not on the list of StormReady cities/counties, however.

EDIT: Radar image as of 3:14CST, shows the couplet just east of Stover, between S.R.135 and 52.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm just amazed to see 75-80 dBz returns on the supercell in Morgan County, MO. Latest radar imagery from EAX and SGF show very high reflectivity core with this storm -- suprising given the <1000 j/kg CAPE analyzed in that area. I'm always amazed to see such high reflectivities in relatively low-CAPE environments. Shear through many layers is significant, so there is likely very strong upward forcing from various vertical perturbation pressure gradients in that supercell. At any rate, velocity data show a strong low-level mesocyclone, and 1.5 degree reflectivity have shown intermittent BWER signature with that cell as well. Heck, reflectivity and velocity data from EAX show a respectable TBSS as well:

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

My sister lives in Versailles and the sirens were sounding at around 3:20pm

The school was holding students in shelter until the storm passes! There is an incredible hail shaft on this storm as well.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Anyone know the warning URL for COD for GR3? Allisonhouse is not working.

 

[Chad Cowan]

The Morgan County, MO supercell is quite similar to the 2/28/07 storm that produced the EF4 in se KS. The storms' environment are similar with the low CAPE, high shear, yet still have updrafts with 70 dBZ returns. Both showed the triple body scatter spike like Jeff posted above, and as he mentioned, the updraft is enhanced considerably by the massive wind shear creating a vertical pressure gradient.

IMO if this storm's motion deviates a small bit to the east, it could easily drop a long-track tornado, if it isn't producing already. Columbia and Jeff City need to watch this very closely.


EDIT: Dick, here is the COD Warnings server: http://warnings.cod.edu/

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm just surprised to see all the tornado warnings with the crappy surface winds; all of Missouri and Illinois have SSW winds per SPC mesoanalysis page. I expected supercells but not all these t-warnings.