Jason Harris
EF5
You've probably seen the slight risk for FL for Tuesday afternoon and especially evening.
The SB CAPE looks to stay under 750, which is discouraging, but an impressive blob of 0-1KM helicity of 350-400 shows up in the WRF last time I checked this morning by about 1 AM EST near the East Central Florida coast.
The local forecast discussion is taking this seriously, alluding to bow echoes, supercells ahead of the squall line, and embedded storms producing a few significant tornadic results:
Any further thoughts on this set-up?
The SB CAPE looks to stay under 750, which is discouraging, but an impressive blob of 0-1KM helicity of 350-400 shows up in the WRF last time I checked this morning by about 1 AM EST near the East Central Florida coast.
The local forecast discussion is taking this seriously, alluding to bow echoes, supercells ahead of the squall line, and embedded storms producing a few significant tornadic results:
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR / LOW
LVL HELICITY / FAVORABLE LOW TRACK AND TIME OF DAY (NIGHT) WITH
LOWER LCLS ALL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG AND VIOLENT
TORNADOES
Any further thoughts on this set-up?