Mike Kovalchick
EF3
Chase Target for Saturday, August 9
Chase target:
Petoskey, Michigan
Timing and storm mode:
Waterspouts. All day.
Discussion:
Conditions for waterspouts in the near shore waters of Northern Lake Michigan appear to be coming together for an outbreak possibily similar to what occurred further South on Lake MI yesterday.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=17232&source=0
The parameters outlined in the Szilaguyi waterspout nomogram should be met.
http://www.essl.org/ECSS/2007/abs/07-Climatology/1178114308.keul-1-sec07.oral.pdf
Unseasonable cold air out of Canada will be blowing across the warm waters..creating a 850 mb Delta T's in the 15 C range with the Lake temps around 70 F.
Winds will be out of the NW which should blow any convective elements that form towards the SE shore. Lake induced equilibrium levels should be above 25K feet.
Models differences between the NAM and the GFS on Bufkit soundings for APX suggest early morning or late afternoon as possible good viewing times. Little Traverse Bay...with the help of land breeze convergence into the bay could be a particuarly good spot.
NWS APX Discussion for this event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KAPX.html
Chase target:
Petoskey, Michigan
Timing and storm mode:
Waterspouts. All day.
Discussion:
Conditions for waterspouts in the near shore waters of Northern Lake Michigan appear to be coming together for an outbreak possibily similar to what occurred further South on Lake MI yesterday.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=17232&source=0
The parameters outlined in the Szilaguyi waterspout nomogram should be met.
http://www.essl.org/ECSS/2007/abs/07-Climatology/1178114308.keul-1-sec07.oral.pdf
Unseasonable cold air out of Canada will be blowing across the warm waters..creating a 850 mb Delta T's in the 15 C range with the Lake temps around 70 F.
Winds will be out of the NW which should blow any convective elements that form towards the SE shore. Lake induced equilibrium levels should be above 25K feet.
Models differences between the NAM and the GFS on Bufkit soundings for APX suggest early morning or late afternoon as possible good viewing times. Little Traverse Bay...with the help of land breeze convergence into the bay could be a particuarly good spot.
NWS APX Discussion for this event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KAPX.html
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