07/17/07 NOW: IA / MN / SD / IL / WI

[Colin Davis]

Sitting at Panera Bread in Waterloo with Scott Kampas. Calorie count now at 3400 for Scott and 3200 for myself.

We're considering relocating to Mason City soon, but nothing really imminent that is pushing us to leave. The northern game seems to be the more logical one right now - similar convergence with more SErly winds at SFC than down further south.

Anyone else out or planning on going out?

 

[Joel Wright]

I'd watch the area between Waterloo and Mason City IA. That seems to be the "hot zone" of development today. This area is right on the nose of the very high instability, and just north of the capped off area. Outflow boundaries lie in this area from all the overnight MCS activity.

Southwest MN is a tossup. Anything that can manage to go up here will go ballistic. The lack of any real upper level forcing and surface convergence in this area may keep convection from firing until the LLJ kicks in by mid-evening. Later on this evening a very powerful MCS may originate from this area however, and sweep southeast across northeast IA...

 

[Paul Townsend]

Sitting at a new Comfort Suites south of Cedar Falls and mooching wi-fi. Was thinking about heading up Mason City way, or even a tad further north, but low level warm advection is cranking up just west of here. Warm front/outflow boundary is advancing this way, in conjunction with increasing low level WAA. Lack of cumulus suggests cap is winning and all that has managed to form is high-based showers well east of surface boundary. Waterloo area might not be so good afterall. Heading north or northwest soon if not convinced to stay here.

 

[Derek Weston]

Cap might not break for a few hours here... Keep an eye on central IA (towards E. Central) as it has very nice profiles for supercell/tornadic activity...

 

[Josh Richardson]

Cap is certainly worrying me as well at this point. I'm pretty sure we will just hang between here and Waterloo at this point as I cant see trying to make it much further than that.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Waiting in IA...

While I'm not out today, I am quite confident that explosive storm development will take place just northeast of Waterloo in the 8 PM CDT timeframe. I support this primarily with recent visible satellite trends as well as the CIN and moisture convergence trends in the SPC mesoanalysis. I've also noted a slight cooling trend in the mid-levels over the last few hours. Following initiation, storms should quickly become severe and move southeast at 30 mph. Given shear and instability parameters in place, it should be an interesting late show.
- bill

 

[Chad Cowan]

According to the SPC mesoanalysis page, there are some mammoth CAPE values present over northwest IA and into SD. Mixed layer CAPE is +5000 j/kg and LI is -11 ! According to visible satellite imagery, initiation will most likely occur over northeast IA, which is on the edge of the extreme instability, and development will be very rapid. Anything that remains discrete will be rotating (500 m2/s2 0-3km SRH). Given these impressive parameters, I would not be surprised if the SPC upgraded to 10% TOR on the 0z outlook... or not.

 

[kenny_allen]

The Severe Studios team is heading into the severe warned thunderstorm in Douglas county, SD. We have reports of 80 mph and shingles off of houses. While the chance of tornadic activity is slim, we are hoping to see some nice lightning and cloud structure. Live ChaseCam is up and running now.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Still think we could be looking at a high end damaging wind event over eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois tonight. As others have stated, it looks like things will indeed hold off until sunset or shortly after to initiate, but once it does I believe it could be one of those instances where some blips show up, and a couple scans later there a severe storms dotting the radar. I think it's gonna be either all or nothing though... as there is also a good shot nothing will form at all. In that case I think we'll see the mcs in South Dakota continue its trek eastward and will likely affect Iowa in the overnight with a lesser severe threat. If things do go in Iowa, I don't think things will remain discrete for terribly long, but a tornado report is possible during the initial period, though I'm guessing we'll mostly be seeing hail reports. Shortly after I do expect a quick transition into a bow echo with a good S/SE clip with some high end wind reports possible around the Quad Cities into the Peoria-Galesburg-LaSalle areas of NW Illinois. Not sure how long the complex will last, but given steep instability levels into the night, there are some indications that it could last well into the early morning and rake across much of Illinois and parts of far NE Missouri and western Indiana.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Well we finally have some initiation started over in extreme NE IA and NW IL. Could start to possibly see some scattered convection forming along NW-SE oriented line from Southern MN/Northern IA towards the NE IA and NW IL area. At the very least it appears NE IA and W IL could start to finally get some action.

 

[Craig Maire II]

07/17/07

Encountered a BUSTNADO today! Was hanging out with Josh Richardson earlier in Mason City and finally gave up at around 8:45pm. Am under a severe thunderstorm watch now and development of thunderstorms is still likely after midnight. We still have some incredible parameters in my area so I will leave my Noaa Weather Radio on and be up with a moments notice! (Not depressed about seeing the BUSTNADO today though, when you live in Iowa you get used to seeing BUSTNADOS plus I saw incredible storms yesterday so what the hey, can't win them all!)

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Now people might understand why Iowa has the reputation that it does. I know some were commenting on that earlier and not understanding what I was talking about when I said I didn't want to chase Iowa. I managed to catch a lucky break yesterday.

On a side not... supercell continues in nothern Illinois north of Dixon. Wondering if we'll ever see a warning on it. It has tripped a TVS several times with strong couplets and at this moment has broad, but very strong rotation, but not even a severe thunderstorm warning. It's elevated I'm guessing... but still surprised at the lack of attention.

 

[stephanieschweitzer]

Waiting till nigh-fall has its perks. CU went up incredible over last half hour. Currently home watching amazing show just south in Fairbault CO. MN. Ready to leave in 15...