07/12/06 FCST: MANITOBA / ND / MT

Some very juicy air and the passage of the trof through Southern Manitoba and the northern plains should set the stage for at least some large hail, intense lightning and damaging winds. The latest RUC shows afternoon Td's for southwestern Manitoba reaching 75, with winds aloft from W/SW at 40 kts. Current shear profiles, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, suggest the possibility of higher-based severe thunderstorm activity for southern Manitoba.

Convection should initiate approx. 4:30 pm with peak daytime heating. Chase target: Melita, Manitoba.

John
VE4 JTH
 
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