Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target:
10 miles north of Matador, TX
Timing and storm mode:
Storms should back build from the northeast to southwest, reaching the target area between 4 and 5 PM CDT. Although the primary storm mode will be multicell, an embedded supercell or two will be possible early in storm evolution. Movement of individual cells will be towards the east at 20 mph.
Discussion:
Convection will be ongoing early in the period over most of the western portion of OK. Storms will later build towards the southwest into TX through the afternoon hours along an outflow-enhanced cold front. Overall, relatively weak flow will be the rule from the surface through 700mb. A location to consider, however, may be where surface flow is locally backed due to orographic lift within the Red River valley. Here, locally-enhanced shear parameters should exist. Model soundings suggest moderate clockwise hodograph curvatures. SFC-3km SRH should increase to 200m2/s2 by late afternoon as a modest low-level jet overspreads backed surface winds along the eastern edge of the Caprock. Deep layer shear should increase accordingly within the RRQ of a 40kt upper-level jet.
- Bill Schintler
09:59 PM CDT, 06/13/10
10 miles north of Matador, TX
Timing and storm mode:
Storms should back build from the northeast to southwest, reaching the target area between 4 and 5 PM CDT. Although the primary storm mode will be multicell, an embedded supercell or two will be possible early in storm evolution. Movement of individual cells will be towards the east at 20 mph.
Discussion:
Convection will be ongoing early in the period over most of the western portion of OK. Storms will later build towards the southwest into TX through the afternoon hours along an outflow-enhanced cold front. Overall, relatively weak flow will be the rule from the surface through 700mb. A location to consider, however, may be where surface flow is locally backed due to orographic lift within the Red River valley. Here, locally-enhanced shear parameters should exist. Model soundings suggest moderate clockwise hodograph curvatures. SFC-3km SRH should increase to 200m2/s2 by late afternoon as a modest low-level jet overspreads backed surface winds along the eastern edge of the Caprock. Deep layer shear should increase accordingly within the RRQ of a 40kt upper-level jet.
- Bill Schintler
09:59 PM CDT, 06/13/10
