06/14/08 FCST: TX/OK

[Steve Miller TX]

A very nice looking setup for the TX PH and far W parts of OK. It's starting to shape up as a classic NW flow event with strong, sharp veering profiles, modest low level flow and good instability. RUC/NAM/WRF models in very good agreement showing a more discreet supercell potential initiating someplace around the Amarillo vicinity. I believe that is the first time I've been able to say that this year.

One of the problems we've had out here this year is the shallow nature of moisture return up on the caprock that severely mixes out with daytime heating. Based on low level trajectories and the 12z soundings all the way to the coast and OUN, I think (hope) the moisture getting mixing out will be minimal today.

NW flow events can be fickle for forecasters, but can be awesome for us structure freaks...as well as prolific gorilla hail producers. Hopefully the Panhandle Magic will come through today.

 

[BrandonWhittington]

Hey Steve, I totally agree with you on this setup here in the Panhandles. Moisture appears to be deeper in nature and it looks like we might see some huge hail somewhere close to home.

Overall, its not too bad looking, moisture is slowly creeping up and CAPE values are already around 2500. This setup reminds me of the huge hail storm that his Amarillo and Few years ago with the giant hail on the west side of town.

Really looking more for photos today. I would not be suprised to see a funnel or two. We will just have to see, Im going to just stick around the house, here in fritch. CU is already starting to develop here in the central panhandles.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I like to today fairly well considering it's NW flow. Right now the dryline looks to be sitting near the TX/NM border. Moisture is a little deeper in the eastern and SE panhandle with CAPE nearing 2500 j/kg. I think the moisture along with daytime temps in the upper 90's and some good lapse rates will yield some big hail today. I'm going to say the largest hail will be in the eastern panhandle. 2 inch will be the largest reported I think.

Now, for the cap. Per SPC analysis, it's 13 at 700mb right now. That's pretty high for this time of year so I'm thinking very isolated storms will form until late tonight when an MCS forms in the extreme SE panhandle and SW Oklahoma.

At least the storms won't be moving very fast because of weak upper level winds. I think with the directional shear, we will have some rotating updrafts today. The tornado potential looks low, but stranger things have happened. I'm just basically going to sample some hail cores today and hopefully I can get into some big hail. I still want to do a phoner for Channel 10 with big hail falling in the background. It would sure make for good TV.

EDIT: I forgot to add that I think there will be a possibility of strong downburst winds today with the high based nature of the storms. With temps in the upper 90's along with Td in the upper 50's, this will lead to high T/Td depressions.

 

[Steve Miller TX]

Yep, I agree with the main severe mode. The tornado threat I think is there if a storm remains entirely isolated and moves in such a way that the S and SE low level flow trajectory into the updraft region isn't from the heart of the precip core. If a cell can orient and move just right, then we could get a couple of tubes fromthe storm.

As such, if it is an isolated cell, then I think the hail potential is tremendous with the steep lapse rates and the nature of NW flow events. Softballs I think would be a sure bet.

Right now, Cu fields are rapidly increasing across the PH and in particular out around Channing/Vega. Unfortunately, dewpoints are cratering again (too coomon this year) as AMA is now 58 from 60 last hour...but with a windshift to SW. Latest RUC now tries to establish the convergence/dryline just east of AMA, so I'm thinking towards the edge of the caprock for deeper moisture and lower LCLs.

Tricky call for the next couple of hours to hope for a storm closer to the caprock edge or wait for a storm to fire up further west and move into better air. I think that latter poses a risk of the storm becoming too outflow dominant before it does find the better air.

I'm not sure on a target yet, but leaning east of AMA.

It's time for me to get off the computer and get ready to hit the road. Hope to see you guys out there!

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

The cu near Borger has really begin to grow in the last hour. It looks like a a few towers are beginning to pop up here near Borger, north of Ama and SW along the dryline into NM. The dew points are much better off the caprock, but you have to go where the storms are. The RUC has brought the helicity up over all the panhandle on the last few runs now. Both the WRF and RUC have a pretty steep dryline in the north central panhandle by sundown with close to 65 dew points, but from the looks of things now the action will be further to the south.

Looks to be a cell forming NW of Ama as I type this, so I may head that direction soon. I dont have my power intverter with me today so I may get to do this chase old school.