06/06/2010 FCST: CO/WY/NE/KS

Joined
Feb 1, 2006
Messages
87
Location
Garland, TX
A quick check of current conditions show that CAPE values have increased to between 2,000 and 3500 j/kg along the front range, and low 60s dew points from pooling are being reported northeast of Denver. Bulk shear values are higher than I expected, ranging from 70 kts in extreme northeast Colorado, down to 50 kts along the front range and into southeastern Colorado, extending almost to DDC. HOWEVER, 700 mb winds are a bit weak over the area with the highest indicated by the SPC Meso page at 25 kts dropping to 5 kts in southeast Colorado. 500 mb winds north of the Palmer Divide are around 45 kts, but drop to 20 kts south of Colorado Springs.

As of 1930z, storms are developing along the front range between Fort Collins and Cheyenne.

Wind reports do not indicate that a DCVZ circulation has or is forming, although surface winds have backed a bit at Fort Morgan and Keota. Fort Morgan has a dew point of 63 degrees, with mid-50s along the I-25 corridor.

I'll be arm chair chasing today. Wish I could be there, but can't.

Good luck to all who are chasing today.
 
CAPE is certainly sufficient at over 3500 j/kg. A lot of the plains are capped but that seems to be eroding. In my opinion, conditions over the northern palmer divide seem more favorable for general severe than anywhere else in CO at this time. I will be watching satellite closely for some towers going up in the Mt. Evans area.
 
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