Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target:
Jetmore, KS (18 miles N of Dodge City).
Timing:
Storm initiation 5 PM CDT.
Storm mode:
High-based supercell storms, later evolving into a strong MCS which will track to the east during the late evening hours. Chasers may consider staying in Great Bend, KS overnight for an impressive lightning show after dark.
Synopsis:
Little change in the large scale pattern, which remains dominated by a slowly weakening, vertically stacked low over SD. At the SFC, an outflow-enhanced CF had pushed to the S of the Red River, and this provided the focus for a couple of pulse-type storms during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Further N and W, weak upslope flow and a H5 shortwave rounding base of upper low have resulted in scattered convection in ERN CO. SFC moisture was limited W of a CDS to ICT to TOP line where dewpoints ranged from the low- to mid-50’s with NWRLY LLVL flow.
Discussion:
The NAM, GFS, UKMET, and NGM were reviewed, and as has often been the case for recent day-2 forecasts for setups similar to tomorrows, the NAM solution was well south of the model consensus. Recent verification for setups with a H5 tough over the SCNTRL CONUS and SFC low in the OK panhandle has been trending towards the northward GFS solution.
Moisture return will commence overnight as a 25kt H85 LLJ develops into WRN KS, however the highest SFC dewpoints and deepest moisture will arrive in the target area by the time of storm initiation. The target is along the NRN edge of a shallow layer of 60F dewpoints. This will serve to keep cloud bases in the 1500-2000m AGL range. Tomorrow, SFC low pressure will become established over the WRN OK panhandle in response to lift in RRQ of 45kt H5 speed max coupled with strong SFC heating. A developing SFC WF will trail ENE of this feature with backing, up sloping SFC flow to its north, and forcing along and just north of this feature that will be the focus for severe convection. Deep-layer shear should be around 50kts, along with SRHs in the 200m2/s2 range. However, the aforementioned limited LLVL moisture will limit tornado threat. Overnight, a strengthening 40kt LLJ will aid in the maintenance of a strong MCS.
- bill
Jetmore, KS (18 miles N of Dodge City).
Timing:
Storm initiation 5 PM CDT.
Storm mode:
High-based supercell storms, later evolving into a strong MCS which will track to the east during the late evening hours. Chasers may consider staying in Great Bend, KS overnight for an impressive lightning show after dark.
Synopsis:
Little change in the large scale pattern, which remains dominated by a slowly weakening, vertically stacked low over SD. At the SFC, an outflow-enhanced CF had pushed to the S of the Red River, and this provided the focus for a couple of pulse-type storms during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Further N and W, weak upslope flow and a H5 shortwave rounding base of upper low have resulted in scattered convection in ERN CO. SFC moisture was limited W of a CDS to ICT to TOP line where dewpoints ranged from the low- to mid-50’s with NWRLY LLVL flow.
Discussion:
The NAM, GFS, UKMET, and NGM were reviewed, and as has often been the case for recent day-2 forecasts for setups similar to tomorrows, the NAM solution was well south of the model consensus. Recent verification for setups with a H5 tough over the SCNTRL CONUS and SFC low in the OK panhandle has been trending towards the northward GFS solution.
Moisture return will commence overnight as a 25kt H85 LLJ develops into WRN KS, however the highest SFC dewpoints and deepest moisture will arrive in the target area by the time of storm initiation. The target is along the NRN edge of a shallow layer of 60F dewpoints. This will serve to keep cloud bases in the 1500-2000m AGL range. Tomorrow, SFC low pressure will become established over the WRN OK panhandle in response to lift in RRQ of 45kt H5 speed max coupled with strong SFC heating. A developing SFC WF will trail ENE of this feature with backing, up sloping SFC flow to its north, and forcing along and just north of this feature that will be the focus for severe convection. Deep-layer shear should be around 50kts, along with SRHs in the 200m2/s2 range. However, the aforementioned limited LLVL moisture will limit tornado threat. Overnight, a strengthening 40kt LLJ will aid in the maintenance of a strong MCS.
- bill