05/25/05 TALK: Southern High Plains

Appears to be some potential for today to be an interesting day - surprised to see no thread in place. Anyhow - active MCS complex in OK continues to churn out a massive cold cold pool southwestward - pressing strong upslope flow into much of the west Texas to eastern NM. Further north, synoptic cold front is pressing southward along the lee of the Rockies, with nw to northerly flow across much of CO now. Surface winds well north of the outflow, but south of the front, continue to veer with time, and while dewpoints across the TX panhandle to sw CO and ne NM where generally in the low to mid 50's, low 60 dewpoints were present around the Clovis vicinity. Question becomes the degree of instability that can pool south of the front. 12 hr RUC forecast has a small pocket of impressive instability in northeast CO later today, combined with favorable low-level shear to yield 0-1km EHI values near 2 by 00Z, combined with strong convergence along an E-W oriented frontal boundary. Ridging caused by outflow should help maintain relatively robust upslope surface winds to the south. So, given th current trends I'll go with a Raton to Springer NM target until further trends become apparent.

Glen
 
In addition, I think the area of W Central TX, to the SW of the MCS complex bears watching this afternoon. Instability looks to build here per RUC model and, with the frontal boundary in the area, decent chance for sufficient lift for supercell development. Low level storm-relative winds at 20-25 kts would be sufficient to feed isolated supercell. Although kinematic support for tornadoes appears lacking, surface low in SW TX along w/ surface vorticity. Not a classic dryline setup, but with cold pool, building instability, and surface boundary - perhaps any misoscale perturbations/mesoscale accidents (gravity waves from yesterday's convection??? - a long shot) make area interesting enough to watch.

EDIT: Mesoscale discussion just issued a few minutes after original post, citing supportive deep layer shear environment.
 
Today was also pretty interesting to watch as the SPC developed its outlooks ... as of last night, the Day Two was downright pessimistic on the chances for development of ANY severe weather. Outlooks upgraded to a slight risk this morning, and then upgraded again to moderate risk in central Texas as of the 2000 outlook. Though still not looking like anything spectacular from a standpoint of tornadoes, today seemed to kind of sneak in the back door.
 
Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
Today was also pretty interesting to watch as the SPC developed its outlooks ... as of last night, the Day Two was downright pessimistic on the chances for development of ANY severe weather. Outlooks upgraded to a slight risk this morning, and then upgraded again to moderate risk in central Texas as of the 2000 outlook. Though still not looking like anything spectacular from a standpoint of tornadoes, today seemed to kind of sneak in the back door.

Thats b/c NW flow & MCS's are a bitch to forecast.
Forecasting for tornadic events is actually a bit easier than current pattern.
 
Per wide range loop on KDYX radar, some type of boundary approaching Abilene from the NE...meanwhile, new convection firing S and W of Midland/Odessa. Maybe we will see things come together in area between Abilene and San Angelo. Kind of surprised we haven't heard any talk from potential chasers on this setup.
 
Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
Today was also pretty interesting to watch as the SPC developed its outlooks ... as of last night, the Day Two was downright pessimistic on the chances for development of ANY severe weather. Outlooks upgraded to a slight risk this morning, and then upgraded again to moderate risk in central Texas as of the 2000 outlook. Though still not looking like anything spectacular from a standpoint of tornadoes, today seemed to kind of sneak in the back door.

Mike, when I got home a little before 2, the SPC had a moderate in E. NM, with a 5 % chance for tornadoes. Their new DAY 1 (at 2:43), had moved that to slight, and shifted the moderate to C. Texas, with only now a 2% chance for tornadoes in texas, and i can't remember if any in E. NM. These systems are very complex, and very tough to judge. Nothing seems to be an "easy" setup, so far this poo poo year. I just got back on, so who knows what it says now, Southern Canada could have a shot at it today. :D
 
Mike Kruze is watching the storm crossing the San Miguel/Guadalupe County (NM) line. He reports suspicious lowerings, possible wall cloud, but is too far to determine rotation. Based on the FDX velocity images, I'd say its probably spinning quite well.

Edit: this storm has a history of 1.75" hail.
 
Good looking storm N of Clovis, NM right now.... is starting to hook and is riding right along an Outflow boundary. Other Storms continue to produce large hail and damiging winds gusts back into central NM...
 
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