05/11/04 FCST: S Alley

[Tony Laubach]

Just in case the 12th moves to the 11th! The week is holding, but will it be the 11th or 12th? Your comments here, folks!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

11th looking impressive to me. GFS has gotten quite consistent in showing a deep sfc low tracking from ne CO to nc NE ahead of a very nice upper jet punching into western KS.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...2hr_300_wnd.gif

That is some pretty massive spreading of the winds aloft over western KS and surrounding areas.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_pwat.gif

With an open gulf moisture should be no problem by then.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_mslp.gif

Very persistant in developing a very deep sfc low.

700mb and 850mb temps slightly warm however. Seems as though this year it's tough to get deep moisture in place so far, as the Gulf keeps getting wacked(or at least severly wacked once). One would think by then we'd be set. Right now I'm torn between liking the area along the wf ahead of the sfc low or the dryline that will likely be very nicely isolated. Still 5 days out though. Eastern Dakotas could could raked on into MN as well as the western plains areas. Anyone leaning one way or the other on potential target areas given what the gfs is showing actually happens?

Mike

 

[Bob Schafer]

I wish the GFS was progging a bit more directional shear along the DL for the 11th.

The sfc conditions look ominous for W KS down through the PH's (00Z 040512), but look at the 700 winds. Most available dir shear (sfc-700) is about 35 degrees down around MAF. I know 35 degrees isn't too bad, but I always love to see a little more than that. Get up nearer AMA or Liberal, and any storms would have some trouble rotating, and would be moving pretty swiftly NNE.

Also, as Mike pointed out, the cap may be a major issue on the DL. I'm looking at CoD's models, and it shows 850 temps over SW K and extreme W OK PH ABOVE 28C!! And 700 temps of 10, 11C? (Which are also present all the way up to nearly SD) That's usually just a little warm for explosive instability, but yikes, not with 850 temps like that!

500 vort is progged too far west, too.

Nice left front jet exit region over SW KS, though.

Check this out:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_prcp.gif

GFS wants some precip to be ongoing E and SE of LBB at 12Z Wed morning, huh?

Obviously (and I am not fond of the way 10 people always point this out....but here I am, doing it myself, lol) it will be a lot different in a few days, but, you know, I just may be in Sterling CO come 2000Z Tue.

Bob

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I wish the GFS was progging a bit more directional shear along the DL for the 11th.

I see se sfc winds in all of western KS down through the panhandles. With sw at 700 and some speed shear up to 300. Plus with a deep deep sfc low like that and a good dl push winds may back more then progged. I think sfc to 700 should be 90 degrees anyway if not greater.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_SVR_C...HSWEAT_84HR.gif

Areas in central SD look sweet for Tues!

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_500_G...NDVORT_84HR.gif

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_SFC_S...INDSLI_84HR.gif

50knts west southwest at 500mb atop likely ese sfc winds with cape would work very nicely. I asked about being able to open a Tues thread awhile ago still no ops. So, this southern plains one will have to work. Northern plains look more doable for Tues now...southern Wednesday.