Well, it's day 1 - so might as well give today a quick rundown. Area I find most interesting right now is the small but intense shortwave slowly migrating across KS this morning will slip into NE, continueing to offer enhanced lift ahead of the wave. Weak and widely scattered showers are present across portions of NE and KS, within inflow rooted around the 900 mb level. 50 knot WSW flow at 250 mb sampled this morning at DDC offers a glimmer of hope that reasonable speed shear could be in place along the southern edge of the wave - but whether convection can develop in wake of subsidence from mid-level short wave, as mentioned in the SPC discussion, is certainly tough to buy. RUC and NAM both consistent with intense convective development in the se NE area, where it appears sufficient shear will be in place for rotating storms, with the main instability axis sliding in from the sw edge of what is shown as a small convective cluster. At least upper 50 dews look to slide into the region by later today, with clearing appearent in the 'mini' dry slot that should offer a decent chance for keeping up with the strengthening cap. So, I guess the thing to watch for over the next few hours is whether the current elevated convection can start to get better organized, then there may be a chance for the tail end cell to be of interest. Model guidance suggests a Hastings to Beatrice area right now - too early to pinpoint until the current evolution becomes more clear. But, if I were working at SPC, I'd consider adding a 5% torn bullseye in this region at the 1630 outlook.
Glen
