04/02/2006 DISC: IA/IL/MO/AR/TN

[Gabe Garfield]

Based on an aerial survey of the Dyer Co. tornado by WCMTV (based in Memphis), I can see only evidence of high-end F3 damage. Of course, they may not have surveyed the entire path length, so there might be isolated locations of violent tornado damage.

Still no PNS from Memphis...I would expect one soon, though.

Gabe

 

[Jeff Snyder]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE("PAH PNS")</div>

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT MON APR 3 2006

...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...

EACH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER...ALONG WITH A NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM MEMBER...HAD DETERMINED THAT ALL OF
THE DAMAGE WAS DUE TO MICROBURST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WERE ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 60 TO 70 MPH...WHILE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DAVIESS COUNTY
KENTUCKY WERE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 80 TO 90 MPH. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGERS STATED THAT THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS OF A
TORNADO.
[/b]

--> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=...=20060403191156

I only post that because there were a few tornado reports in that KPAH CWA. I am interested in seeing something out of the Memphis NWSFO.

In addition, the St. Louis NWSFO performed a very quick damage survey from a tornado in their CWA. Props for their rapid PNS release, as they had it about about 4am, less than 12 hours after the tornado occurred.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE("LSX PNS")</div>

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT MON APR 3 2006

...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY FOR APRIL 2 2006 ST. CLAIR COUNTY
ILLINOIS...

PERSONNEL FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN ST. LOUIS
CONDUCTED A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED OVER
NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING, APRIL 2ND. THE DAMAGE
WAS PRODUCED BY A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO.
...
TOTAL LENGTH...7-8 MILES
WIDTH...80-90 YARDS
DAMAGE INTENSITY WAS RATED AT F1
[/b]

--> http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=...=20060403090302

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Strike my previous comments, damage looks extraordinarily severe based on viewing further video from WCM-TV. Click on "Dyer County tornado damage" in the following link, and you'll see what I mean.
Video of Aerial Survey
There appears to be several locations that took at least F4 damage (foundations wiped, only tree stumps left, etc.). Should be *very* interesting to see what rating this tornado achieves.

Gabe

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Strike my previous comments, damage looks extraordinarily severe based on viewing further video from WCM-TV. Click on "Dyer County tornado damage" in the following link, and you'll see what I mean.
Video of Aerial Survey
There appears to be several locations that took at least F4 damage (foundations wiped, only tree stumps left, etc.). Should be *very* interesting to see what rating this tornado achieves.

Gabe [/b]

With the Dyer Count Tornado Damage link, I concur that it looks F3 to low-end F4. Usually, with the most intense tornadoes (above mid-range F4), you don't often see a whole of debris about, presumably because much of it is centrifuged away. OF course, any damage assessing we do is amatuer, since there's a lot more to it. But from a prelim point, I concur. The damage around 1:10 is interesting.

The second link that page ("Damage summary" or sometihng like that), there is an interesting part around 0:34. I'm not sure if that was a small house or what, but you can see that most of the debris has been carried away from the site. There do appear to be a few trees standing, and that truck being where it is makes me wonder if the winds were really too strong. Overall, I think the video makes me think Manchester, which was an F4.

EDIT: I should note the vehicle near the damage at 0:34 may belong to those people who are standing near the used-to-be-structure, and it's possible that the vehicle was not in the tornado. If it was in the tornado, then, from the fact that it doesn't look like it rolled me and the fact that it's up on its wheels (as vehicles should be LOL), makes me wonder if F4-level winds really were required to do the damage to whatever structure was there.

 

[Greg Stumpf]

By the way, the long track supercell cut across the MO bootheel...[/b]

Hmmm - gotta wonder if we just had another "tri-state" tornado?

 

[Jeff Miller]

Hmmm - gotta wonder if we just had another "tri-state" tornado?
[/b]

I certainly would concur, Greg as it started in Arkansas, cut across the Missouri bootheel and went well into Tennessee. Crossed three states, I would call it the "Little Tri-State Tornado" - though it certainly isn't little or weak, just in comparison to the one in 1925.

 

[Greg Stumpf]

I certainly would concur, Greg as it started in Arkansas, cut across the Missouri bootheel and went well into Tennessee. Crossed three states, I would call it the "Little Tri-State Tornado" - though it certainly isn't little or weak, just in comparison to the one in 1925.
[/b]

Well, assuming the storm produced a continuous tornado across that area. I'm not sure that's verified yet.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Well, assuming the storm produced a continuous tornado across that area. I'm not sure that's verified yet.
[/b]

Looking forward to the surveys on this one for sure to see the verification (or not) of this.

 

[Kurt Wayne]

The KFVS web site original linked here has a second story "Deadly storms move across the heartland" that does indeed show the time lapse radar, showing it moving from the Caruthersville/North Pemiscot area over north Dyer and north Gibson counties where the greatest loss of life occurred.

It also looks like, given the track on radar, these from the same system that my son and I saw way off to our east. Amazing...the Bentonville area is quite "gun-shy" right now due to the tornadoes of three weeks back...if the folks here had known what was brewing to the east of them, heading east...

We were SO blessed that our own "tor" came through at 10:00 pm rather three-five hours earlier, although what we got was bad enough.

 

[Alex Lamers]

F2 Tornado in White County AR. PNSLZK.

 

[Johnnie Gambill]

KAIT-8 news at 5:00 (Jonesboro, AR) reported that they spoke with the team from NWS Memphis - they're going with "at least an F4, possibly F5" in reference to the tornado that affected Marmaduke, AR.

 

[mikegeukes]

F5 Tornadoes of the United States
http://spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html

Mike

 

[Chris Hayes]

As if in mockery, my chase target was within 15 miles of an F2 tornado in SE IA. Two others, F1 and F0 from Davenport at this time.

Oh, and does anyone know when the last time we had an F5 in the CONUS was? I would be interested because in my annual beginning of the year forecast I said this looks like the year we will break the F5 drought...we shall see what the survey teams come up with.
[/b]

The last "recorded" F5 tornado was the May 3rd, 1999 Moore F5 tornado. There have been some tornados in the past few years in which the NWS was about to rate an F5, but they stuck it at F4. The last one I know of occured on May 4 or 8, 2003. Be interesting to see if Kentuck tornado is rated F5.

 

[mikegeukes]

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT
F3 Dyer County TN

I am keeping a log of the surveys on this:
04-02-06 Storm Damage Surveys
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/index.php?showtopic=10848

Mike

 

[Gabe Garfield]

KAIT-8 news at 5:00 (Jonesboro, AR) reported that they spoke with the team from NWS Memphis - they're going with "at least an F4, possibly F5" in reference to the tornado that affected Marmaduke, AR.
[/b]

I would assume that they are reporting the damage in segments if that is the case. Memphis is in charge of the Marmaduke section of the tornado track, and they haven't released anything about that as of yet.

On another note, I'm surprised that the Dyer Co. segment of damage was given only strong F3. There were a number of houses where no outer walls were present after the tornado passed. I suppose construction issues came into play when they rated these particular sites.

Gabe