Glen Romine
EF5
Since convection is active already this morning, and is likely surface based by now, decided to kick off a nowcast thread for discussion of this event as it unfolds. Feel free to discussion reports and short-term forecast trends below.
I'll begin by noting new tornado watch posted by SPC:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/0503301703.wwus20.html
Plumb of deeper moisture evident in the Little Rock sounding this morning could reach the axis cold temps aloft by mid-afternoon, and set the stage for some tornadic potential.
11:30 central update:
Vis sat showing nicely the northward progression of richer moisture as cumulus field now just east of Saint Louis, where a few low 60 dewpoints are observed. Winds are starting to veer across all of Missouri - so convergnce is increasing along the MS River valley. RUC estimates of SBCAPE reaching 1000 J/KG along MS River valley now - so 1500 quite possible by early afternoon across portions of northwest IL.
Glen
I'll begin by noting new tornado watch posted by SPC:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/0503301703.wwus20.html
Plumb of deeper moisture evident in the Little Rock sounding this morning could reach the axis cold temps aloft by mid-afternoon, and set the stage for some tornadic potential.
11:30 central update:
Vis sat showing nicely the northward progression of richer moisture as cumulus field now just east of Saint Louis, where a few low 60 dewpoints are observed. Winds are starting to veer across all of Missouri - so convergnce is increasing along the MS River valley. RUC estimates of SBCAPE reaching 1000 J/KG along MS River valley now - so 1500 quite possible by early afternoon across portions of northwest IL.
Glen