Tom Dulong
EF2
I'm usually not one to wishcast this far out, but the GFS 144hr 500 mb fcst looks very similar to the 500 mb analysis the morning of 13 March, 1990
(that was the day of the Hesston, KS F5 for those too young to remember).
Check out the synopsis for the Hesston event via Doswell's paper at
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/...ocs/Hesston.pdf
Also, last nights ensemble spagetti chart for 168hr (Wed evening, 8 March) is encouraging - not very much spread:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f168_us.html
Certainly someting to keep an eye on.
(that was the day of the Hesston, KS F5 for those too young to remember).
Check out the synopsis for the Hesston event via Doswell's paper at
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/...ocs/Hesston.pdf
Also, last nights ensemble spagetti chart for 168hr (Wed evening, 8 March) is encouraging - not very much spread:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f168_us.html
Certainly someting to keep an eye on.