03/07/05 FCST Southeastern US

[Larry J. Kosch]

Thought I would put up a FCST thread for Southeastern US after reading this forecast from the SPC:

SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /PER 00Z VANCOUVER ISLAND OBSERVATION/ IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MI AT 07/12Z WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHING SEWD TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING...

THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY SWWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WHERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

You can read the rest of the sypnosis:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

I will change the heading as needed. (Or the mods can do that).

Happy Forecasting!! LJK.

 

[W. Grant Dade]

I live in Hernando, MS, just south of Memphis. Looks like things could be coming together for severe weather. Latest NAM has 0-3km CAPE over 300 and MUCAPE around 2000. LIs are around -4 and the dewpoint looks to be over 65°F around 3pm local time. Strong unidirectional shear. SRH close to 200. One thing I noticed on the sounding was the ELR were close to the DALR for the first 5000ft or so. That was for Olive Branch, MS tomorrow afternoon. Seems to be a strong wind event unfolding but there could be a couple of tornadoes, expecially at the onset of the event. I hope it can hold off untill 3pm so I can chase. Getting excited to say the least.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Note current mesoscale discussion now highlighting NE Texas to SW Arkansas. Although quick glance of RUC shows EHI will have a hard time getting over 1.0, even just to the south of the highlighed area, forcing appears strong enough to pay some attention. As the trough dropped SEwd late last night over the KC area, we experienced some pretty wicked lightening, so I wouldn't sell this system short as it drops into juicier airmass later today.