Chase Case #1 2011

[Brandon Jenkins]

Missed a couple updates but based on the 12z update I would probably have been headed NW toward Amarillo with the intention of awaiting more data. The 15z and 18z updates certainly tempt me to abandon my preliminary target of Dalhart in favor of a SW KS target but I will probably hold strong and latch on to the cell near Dumas, TX while keeping a watchful eye on areas further south along the dryline.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Based on the 18z data, I'm going to hop on this cell riding proximal to the warm front (positioned somewhere between LBL and GCK) WNW of Dodge City, KS and see how it develops, while keeping a close eye on the cell down near AMA, as it may have a better environment to work with at is develops ENE along the moisture plume.

 

[David Wolfson]

Out of Stratford, TX, running north ahead of the dryline via OK95 and KS27 to Syracuse, KS, by 21Z.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

A new radar return is popping up straight overhead in Garden City. I'll be following it with interest. If this one doesn't pan out, there's still a lot starting to happen all along the WF and OFB arc, including that persistent cell that's about to enter SW Kearney Cty.

 

[JeffGonzales]

Based on the 18z, I'm Leaving Liberal, KS and Heading to cell near CO/KS boarder that is entering Stanton County, Kansas, while keeping an eye on the storms developing in south east Colorado. I have yet to get a Colorado tornado so would like to be in position just incases they become tornadic.

 

[Chip Redmond]

From 12z data, I would head west for the dryline play initation. From 15z update though, seeing southwest winds along dryline at surface would be of large concern an convergence will not be as strong along dryline in TX panhandle. Also southerly backing winds at 700mb from AMA sounding represent mid-level warming an cap holding an getting stronger. I would run north to Liberal, KS an would arrive around 20z.

Chip

 

[JeffGonzales]

On the way to stanton county, KS, saw the 19z watch come out with nice isolated cell in south east Colorado, so headed to that cell out in Baca County, Colorado Hoping to get my first colorado tornado

 

[Jeremy Perez]

This is the situation that drove me crazy in South Dakota and Kansas earlier this year.

That cell moving into Kearney County seems to have a cleaner fetch of inflow than the one over Garden City. I'm concerned that the convection and cloud cover over Mead and Gray Counties is probably going to kill the inflow for my storm. But the anxiety of leaving it for the Kearney cell and then having it produce as I leave it behind is putting me in a mental feedback loop.

So I'm breaking it. I'm going to re-position to intercept and follow the cell further west into Kearney County, KS

 

[Skip Talbot]

Looks like its going to be an early show up by the warm front. We've got initiation well underway along the warm front in southwest KS and I'm too far north of the front, so I'll be dropping south out of Scott City heading somwhere between Lakin, KS and Ulysses, KS or Johnson City, KS depending on how far south I make it before I hit the warm front. I'm going to try and meet that cell on the KS/CO border as it moves NNE.

 

[Verne Carlson]

I recognize this day and boy did I screw it up in reality. I'll sit this one out since I know the outcome.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I know this day too. It was good for me as I scored the CO tornadoes in real life...One of my best chases ever.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Oh crap, I just found out what day this is! Haha, oh well, it was an amazing day in real life.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I intercepted my storm as it was made its way out of Texas into the central Oklahoma panhandle, and I backtracked with it toward Guymon. I could have just sat in Guymon and let it come to me. I'm presently a little ways north of Guymon. Other storms are firing to the south along the dryline, and I can easily drop down and explore them if I want to, but I like this one. It's vigorous and in a great location, with strong, unimpeded inflow, and surface winds will only continue to back as it moves up into Kansas.

And on a separate note--Merry Christmas to you all!

 

[JeffGonzales]

Enjoying some of my first Colorado Tornadoes as I decided to go after the storms developing in SE CO and follow them up to the North East. Hopefully the tornadoes are not done for the day just yet.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Yeah, the upgrade to moderate and watch gave it away. Its interesting that I played the opposite end of this setup in the online case than I did in real life.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays first off. Also, I am adding storm reports as we go through each update. Many of you recognize the date, and if you have photos of any of these reports you may share them in real time without giving up the date. We are pretty much closing this case out. There will be a few more updates. The situation has exploded across Colorado, Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma and by 23z/0z most of the action had already taken place. I will post a 23z update a bit later, and close out with the final 0z update later this evening. There may be some chasers that didn't chase this event, nor are they aware yet so I will keep things rolling.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Matt, thanks again for posting this! I really appreciate the opportunity to practice. It looks like I was in good position to catch a virtual wedge in Kearney County. I was worried when I saw the 20Z update that I might have set up between the two areas of action--but the next cell rolling out of SE CO got the job done.

 

[Bob Hartig]

While Lisa is making eggnog, I'm dropping southeast to intercept the storm presently located west of Perryton and will play my cards from there. What a fun little Christmas Eve diversion! Thanks, Matt!

 

[Matt Gingery]

While Lisa is making eggnog, I'm dropping southeast to intercept the storm presently located west of Perryton and will play my cards from there. What a fun little Christmas Eve diversion! Thanks, Matt!

Your welcome Bob. . .

I will be posting the final 0z update tonight. Due to the time of year 23z and shortly thereafter becomes a daylight issue with a chase this time of year. Although I pulled a late chase on this event in reality. I will be posting the date and storm reports for the final update. At this point it wouldn't bother me if anyone lets the cat out of the bag. This was a fun day for me. Sure can't wait to see photos and videos.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Thank you Matt for doing this! It was really fun to put my forecasting skills to the test.

In reality, I played this day opposite of what I played it in this case. Reason being is models this day were consistantly showing a huge dryline buldge in the central TX panhandle. Those 2 blips south of I-40 turned out to be cyclic tornado producers near Goodnight, Jericho, and Alanreed, TX. A lot of people played this area. And a lot of people scored bigtime.

Here's my summary for this day with photos and radar images.
http://weathernoize.webs.com/apps/blog/show/5630819-april-22-2010-chase-summary

Here's my video from I-40 of the first 2 tornadoes, and the tornadoes near Alanreed, TX.Watch video >

 

[Matt Gingery]

Reports are posted and this virtual chase has come to an end. Thanks to everyone for participating. April 22, 2010 was a very memorable chase day for myself and the chasers I was with that day. Those of you with photos, please share your accounts, pics, videos etc. Once again thanks, and I am glad those of you enjoyed it.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Thanks for putting this together, Matt! I think I would have done Ok virtually intercepting that cell southwest of Lakin, KS judging by the red streak on the reports map. In real life I initially targeted the Childress, TX area and went north to intercept the I-40 Jericho/Alanreed tornadoes.

Would have loved to have been on the Goodnight tube like you were.

http://skip.cc/chase/100422/

 

[David Wolfson]

Thanks for the practice, Matt. A successful virtual intercept of the Kearny County, KS, cyclic cell, in Syracuse by 21Z with plenty of time to get ahead on the right flank east of Kendall.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I chased that day with Dann Cianca and after debating about staying in Colorado or heading down to Texas up until the night before, luckily we decided to try to get the early show in Colorado. We started in Eads and saw that little cell pop up near Las Animas and went after it and were rewarded greatly...

Las Animas, CO tornado #1

It then put down a second tornado at the same time which we had horrible position on as they both started to wrap in precip. Michael Carlson has some insane video of this event, so check it out on Youtube, it's damn impressive!

We both figured that cell wouldn't produce anymore (which we were dead wrong) but we did manage to make our way over to Lakin, KS where we saw the reported wedge. It was insanely rain wrapped in the middle of a huge HP cell...It was very hard to make out and only one of my photo's that day showed it.

That cell went on to produce more near Deerfield, Friend, and Shallow Water. It was definitely the big opening day of 2010 where almost all of the targets verified in one way or another. I could be wrong on this but I believe Dann and I were the only chasers who scored tornadoes in 2 separate states that day, regardless it is a very fond chase memory for me and was one of many great chases I had in 2010.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I didn't chase this day, as I was working, but I can recall seeing all of the video from the Texas supercell. I likely would have intercepted the cell in Kansas that rode the warm front in Kearney County based on my last intercept of choice (previous post) north of Dodge City, though it's interesting to note the disparities between simulations and reality, as I recall my "virtual" target that day was down in the Texas panhandle closer to the dryline, so I never strongly considered playing the Kansas target, probably more so over concerns about instability early on.