Certain Death Warnings

[Greg Stumpf]

With Katrina, the language was perfect.

I'll differ with that opinion. The Katrina "death warning" never mentioned the two real reasons for the catastrophe - the storm surge and the flooding as a result of levee breaching. Wind damage was a secondary and not-so-severe issue. In the pre-Katrina New Orleans scenarios, it was widely known that the effect of water would be the major impact, due to the vulnerability of the low-lying communities.

I think somehow the general public needs to come to an understanding of the extremely unpredictable nature of weather. We all have it. We understand that if we make a forecast for severe weather in the plains and it does not verify, then hey - that's just the nature of the game.

Agreed. It's hard to second-guess statements like these, however, without being part of the decision-making process. With any higher-certainty forecasts and warnings, I see no reason why enhanced wording should not be used. But it must be emphasized that no forecast can be 100% certain. As an example, the May 3, 1999 tornado could have dissipated soon after the tornado emergency was declared, even though at the time, there was a large and extremely dangerous tornado being tracked live on television. Certainty was 100% at the time the statement was issued, but not 100% beyond the present time. Sill, you take a chance when issuing any enhanced-worded statements because the future is never 100% certain.

Anyway, here is the text from the Katrina warning if folks need their memory jogged:

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Agreed. It's hard to second-guess statements like these, however, without being part of the decision-making process. With any higher-certainty forecasts and warnings, I see no reason why enhanced wording should not be used. But it must be emphasized that no forecast can be 100% certain. As an example, the May 3, 1999 tornado could have dissipated soon after the tornado emergency was declared, even though at the time, there was a large and extremely dangerous tornado being tracked live on television. Certainty was 100% at the time the statement was issued, but not 100% beyond the present time. Sill, you take a chance when issuing any enhanced-worded statements because the future is never 100% certain.

Exactly - - - storm cycling is a real-time concern that occurs during the heat of battle that I honestly don't know how forecasters and WCMs deal with. Thanks for the post - and for the clarification on Katrina.