2024-05-08 EVENT: TX/OK/AR/IL/MO/TN/OH/KY

[Matthew Crowther]

I can't chase today but Wednesday is looking perhaps as dangerous as today, but farther east. My preliminary target is in IL east of STL. or maybe in the Bootheel of MO. This NAM hodograph in MO is pretty scary-looking.

 

[Brian R.]

I am becoming more interested in Wednesday, since the enhanced risk is only about 80-90 miles south of me, being in the Chicago metro area, and for some reason I just have a feeling that we will be upgraded to the slight risk from marginal risk during later updates, especially with both a warm front and also a cold front as well. I will be paying closer attention to Wednesday than tomorrow.

 

[Drew Terril]

Wednesday had, for the most part, impressed me more than Tuesday over the past few days. However, as models come more into agreement, it appears that there won't be much along the warm front in Indiana. Even if there was, model agreement tends to place the warm front too far south for my liking. From a chasing perspective, I prefer to stay north of I-70 (east of Indy) and I-74 (west of Indy) as far as Indiana goes.

It does appear, however, that Wednesday is going to favor the TP, without a viable WF target. At this point, I expect any severe weather in my area to be in the overnight hours.

 

[Drew Terril]

Today's runs have confirmed what I suspected yesterday, that the WF would be much too far south for me to make a play. At this point, it looks like all but the southwestern portions of Indiana will be completely out of the risk area, and that's if they see anything at all. It appears more likely that the WF may not even lift north of Kentucky east of I-69.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This day has some vague similarities to the May 8, 2009 "super derecho" in general geographic boundary/upper level feature placement and the MCS developing early in the morning. It seems like a no-brainer to position on the warm front and hope/plan for storms to hold off later to at least midafternoon.

 

[Amelia Urquhart]

If I go, I'm gonna be playing North Texas since I can't stray far from Norman this week. Texas looks like a hail-lightning CAPE bomb, and I'm hoping ABL moisture behind the line will be low enough for some good lightning shots, maybe sprites if the line's big enough and powerful enough.

(Terrell, Texas - 00Z - RAP)

 

[Amelia Urquhart]

I had a bug leading to massively underreported ECAPE. Now that I have that fixed, MU-ECAPE almost 5000 J/kg, which is accounting for both dry air entrainment and precip loading. Traditional MUCAPE reads 6351.

 

[Brian R.]

It's looking like today's activity will be in far southern Illinois, and far southeastern Indiana and south from there. Too far of a trip from the northern suburbs of Chicago, and kinda thinking they will fire close to dark anyway.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Overnight convection has done its thing, pushing the WF/OFB south. New target- western TN as stuff farther north will be elevated.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The day is evolving mostly as expected with the elevated early supercell plowing along the boundary. Looks like the best play is far downstream ahead of this into TN where better low-level CAPE along the boundary can be realized and maintained. I'm going to see if this early storm can surprise me along the boundary, but not expecting much this early in the day. I'll head south after it's past me. Don't think I'm up to going all the way into TN, but will play open warm sector storms in the river floodplain.

 

[Jeff House]

Tennessee outflow boundary remains detached from the WF and south of I-40 Middle Tenn. Mid-levels are warm, but CAPE is high and shear is typical South high too. Parts of the derecho checklist are met.

Of course I'm more interested in tornadoes first. Work could be an issue. However that southern boundary is close enough to get out and back should some adult responsibilities arise. Said boundary does arc back north in West Tenn.

 

[John Farley]

That big supercell now passing south of St. Louis has been moving through the worst chase territory I have ever made the mistake of attempting to chase in - very hilly and wooded, with a limited and curvy road network. You can go for miles with no clear view. Thus far, though the storm is maintaining its eastward trajectory, so if I were chasing (which I cannot do, being in Colorado), I would try to position myself somewhere south of its path on the Illinois side of the Mississippi River. I think it will eventually make a rightward turn, which could be a problem given the NW-SE orientation of the river in that area, but so far it has not. Perhaps an intercept in Randolph County, IL could work.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The supercells south of St. Louis are predictably HP with the circulations deeply rain-wrapped. Weak to no motion on the RFD gust fronts. Inflow is also cold thanks to the early hour with no real sunlight beforehand. This is what the storm at Ellis Grove, IL looked like. As John said, difficult terrain here with few open views - the drone again coming in handy. Thinking the tornado opportunities are mostly done up here.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Waiting in Perryville. I'm very nervous fearing the warm front may still exist in some form (independently of the outflow) along the I-64 corridor that some of the current activity in the STL region may take advantage of. The main OFB is far to the south, but has been out in the sun for a couple of hours as it bends back NW. The next round approaching the river may be able to take advantage of that. I will likely drop south to whatever storm rides along/encounters the OFB and hope that something rogue doesn't rip my heart out back home.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The anvil canopy is overspreading the downstream environment ahead of the current supercells south of I-44. There was only about 90 minutes of full sunshine here, so I think this spells the end of the event tornado-wise north of a Cape Girardeau-Carbondale line. Expecting a downturn in overall storm intensity up here. Areas closer to and south of the OFB look good, but that's nearly in the bootheel. Not sure that's going to be worth the extra distance.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Saw a tornado briefly SE of Clarksville, TN but due to terrain lost it quickly, no photos. Good supercell structure earlier SE of Paducah, KY. Otherwise, it became too messy.

 

[Jeff House]

Yeah Matt we know how in the South it's hard to stay on a good cell, from the terrain to roads going the wrong direction.

Apparently I was right about the southern boundary, but it took until evening. North Alabama and parts of Tennessee had a rough evening, mostly on the southern outflow boundary. WF acted as forecast earlier in the day.

Still I could hardly believe the radar around 9pm Eastern. Shrimp and kidney beans were everywhere in North Alabama, southern Tennessee and northwest Georgia. Most were rotating. Finally got the 15% at 20Z.

 

[James Wilson]

Same here Matt and I had a blast going up/down hills around Big Rock LOL. Clarksville is the worse town to get around in especially when storms have already came through. It was a tough chase with little to show for it but I enjoyed it overall. It's likely going to be a long time until I go back chasing near there LOL.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Interesting day, From what I gather there were maybe only a handful of significant tornadoes, Marysville KY, and east of Huntsville, AL the two most prominent examples. We crossed the damage path on I-65 east of Marysville. The ratio of tornado warnings to actual tornadoes may be pretty low, even after we get the surveys. Not blaming NWS, I think storm interactions prevented a lot of the supercells from really planting, also LL hear was fairly weak, we never were in very strong surface winds

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Near Eddyville, TN