Mike Smith
EF5
As of 10p Sunday, it looks like a "moderate" risk (using SPC's terminology) for tornadoes, likely strong, will exist Monday from roughly AEX to ELD to JAN to AEX. The SPC's enhanced risk is fine except the northern boundary should run from SHV to 25 N ELD to join the existing enhanced NE of JAN.
Look at the supercells on the RRFS as of 22Z Monday. The surface low is forecast to be on the AR-LA border WNW of MLU and move east with the warm front moving north. This could be a dangerous situation, especially if it is able to continue into eastern LA and MS after dark.
