Winter Storm 01/16-01/17 in the Appalachians

[Melissa Moon]

As of right now, the GSP NWS is forecasting the Asheville area to receive 3-5 inches of snow overnight with possibly more on Thursday (depending on how quickly the snow changes over to sleet/freezing rain and rain) associated with the low pressure system currently moving over the SE US. As the forecaster down there discusses (and we were also discussing here in the office) it all depends on whether or not frontogenic forcing as shown in some of the models prevents the warm mid-layer from moving over the area sooner changing our precip from snow to rain at an earlier time. Some of you guys up north are probably laughing at this because 3-5 inches is nothing for y'all but for Asheville this is a pretty big event. Combine that with some sleet/freezing rain with all the trees around here and the windey mountain roads, and we might have quite a mess in the morning.

This will definitely be a very interesting situation to watch here in the mountains as it's harder to predict exactly what is going to happen here as opposed to some of the flatter parts of the state where terrain doesn't play as significant of a role. Earlier on, I was really pessimistic about us getting much snow as the Tw was around 30 and could easily rise as warmer air moves in and some of the soundings W/SW of here were indicating a very thick layer of warmer air with only a shallow layer of cold air at the surface (meaning it was likely we'd change over to rain pretty quickly once that mass moves into here). But it's hard to call...while there is no question as to whether we will receive precip, the models are in slight disagreement. The NAM shows and inversion favorable for sleet or ice by morningtime, but the GFS and even the RUC seem to be more favorable of a longer period of snow. I am eager to see the next batch of soundings this evening.

I hope none of y'all have any urgent orders needing to be filled with NCDC. We may be forced to close in the morning.

 

[Josh Durkee]

It's snowing pretty good outside here in Athens, GA

 

[Dan Robinson]

The high T/Td spreads in advance of storms like this makes it hard to tell where/when the precip is going to start, with the widespread radar echoes and huge virga region out ahead. The obs tell part of the story, but the 'light snow' METAR symbol really covers a wide range of snowfall rates from barely a flurry to a light shower that can coat the roads and the ground.

It's tempting to head east to I-81/I-64 to see if that 5 to 9 inches happens, but in the mountains there really isn't much of an impact. I'm more interested to see how RDU-GBO-CLT handles their 'armageddon' half inch of snow.

http://www.ncdot.org/traffictravel/

 

[Jason Foster]

DC region starting

The DC region (especially north suburbs) are seeing the a good snow rate attm. The dusting is just starting and anticipate 2-4" in northern Montgomery County. I will be venturing out (with the van half in pieces as I was wiring it for the spring) for photos and a little bit of video.

I'll be tempted to head northwest toward the Maryland Pan handle (and the mountains), for the deeper snows (upto 6" or more).

 

[Dan Robinson]

Temps ended up being 4 to 8 degrees higher than forecast areawide this morning. As a result, only the western Piedmont and the mountains are getting much of anything. We never dropped below freezing here and were actually warming overnight due to downsloping. Just east of the mountains was the place to be for this one...