Will central plains fires/smoke effect tornado season?

[Kem Poyner]

In April of 2011 fires in Mexico/Central America caused a plume of smoke that covered a large portion of Eastern US. Much research went into whether the smoke contributed to the Super Outbreak on the 27th. Google the topic and see for yourself ! I remember while chasing later that May, it seemed to have a reverse effect. I think it blocked the sun too much for instability.
I wonder if the current fires in Oklahoma/Texas keep burning what affect may it have this season?

 

[Quincy Vagell]

Aside from the smoke aspect, if the High Plains/central Plains were to stay dry with persistent fire danger, that could work to, in some ways, mitigate moisture return. We could also see a scenario where drylines tend to push farther east than recent years, shifting the severe risk accordingly. I'm not sure there will be much impact though, as a pattern breakdown over the next few weeks should work to bring at least some precipitation threats to the region between the Rockies and central Plains.

With that said, fires will have little impact on large scale patterns, unless the drought were to substantially worsen. That would involve little to no rain for several weeks over a broad area and that seems fairly unlikely.

 

[Jeff House]

Severe season is made or missed on the mesoscale. Sure quality synoptic set-ups increase odds of more severe reports, but I propose tornadoes depend on the right mesoscale features. I really doubt smoke matters. Was that academic/peer reviewed? Google lists lots of stories, including from universities, but Google Scholar only has one article.

Smoke probably has more temperature effects and I could see some precipitation effects as well. However I am a real skeptic in cases where the mesoscale drives results - like severe weather. Though I punt causation, I am open to correlation. The dry pattern that leads to fires could also provide a quality elevated mixed layer an/or loaded gun sounding. Too bad this year split flow and wet southern systems have so far crushed instability - those darn mesoscale details.

 

[Manuel Salgado]

There is a substantial amount of literature on the subject of convective invigoration from aerosols. There's a review paper below has a good summation as of a couple of years ago.

https://www.researchgate.net/public...ls-Coupling_between_microphysics_and_dynamics

So, the mechanism proposed is that higher aerosol content leads to higher ccn content which then provides smaller drop sizes and delays the onset of rain. You get increased condensation which releases more latent heat and both that and the delayed onset of precip serve to increase the updraft magnitudes. What is good for updrafts may not be good for tornadoes, however as you need the RFD to bring in further vorticity for tornadogenisis. Also, while in ideal conditions the right amount of loading may invigorate and deep convection that doesn't mean it always will. A layer of smoke can serve to absorb and scatter incoming solar radiation which limits heating at the surface. If there's enough suspended black carbon you can even create an inversion or a cap.

So, while there is evidence that higher aerosol counts can deepen convection I don't think we can say one way or another what the effect of smoke over the central US will be with regards to severe weather.