Why To Not Be An SPC Chaser

[Tony Laubach]

Thought it would be cool to hear your stories of low-risk successes. This is NOT an SPC bash, this is simply a fun way to show that you don't need higher end risks to have a good day. Try to include the SPC outlook, maybe the trends through the day, why you stuck with/chose the target you did, and the end result.

Basically, I want you to share your experiences of low-risk chase days and why you don't necessarily have to chase moderate and high risk days.

Remember that the SPC graphics are for overall severe risks, so instances such as what I am about to describe are not completely out of the question and likely do not fall within the SPC categorical forecasts because they are very isolated events that would not warrent a categorical risk!

JUNE 10, 2009 - SOUTHWEST KANSAS

1300z Tornado Probs (within the slight risk)
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2000z Tornado Probs (now in a general t-storm risk area)
​

We had originally targeted southern Missouri/southeast Kansas for this day, but given the seemingly endless number of days of severe weather and tornadoes across the high plains, it was hard to ignore this setup.

I weighed my target decision heavily on the overall lack of change in the pattern combined with a June 11th target in southeast Colorado. Surface features supported a severe storm chance, but dwindled through the day as hinted by SPC's downgrade in forecast for my target area.

When we left in the morning, we ventured west from Blackwell, OK to this target, then turned around for southeast Kansas when analysis looked grim at best. After Taco Bell, we again stopped where my case was pleaded and we eventually turned ourselves back around to southwest Kansas.

Southeast flow increased a bit during the day as storms formed off the southern foothills of Colorado and moved east into southwest Kansas. A messy line of sub-severe storms formed and pushed toward the US-83 corridor where we had set up shop to await these storms.

Our storm matured into an embedded HP and took on some tight rotation. Very shortly after, a white cone formed north of Sublette and remained on the ground for about 3 minutes.

Meanwhile, the slight risk that was introduced at 1300z and remained at 1630z went away to an area of general thunderstorms. We still managed a tornado, low-contrast, but still pretty stout. It was my biggest chasing success of the year given the way the forecast went down.

 

[Adam Lucio]

While I can't give myself credit for making a detailed forecast of the event ahead of time, my greatest intercept came on the outskirts of low probabilities on a MDT risk day. June 7th 2008. I thought there would be some severe weather in the area, but of course I was drawn towards the area SPC had highlighted.

Most chasers chose IA this day, and I won't lie if it weren't for oral surgery scheduled this morning I might have been suckered out there as well. I was home recovering and watching things locally and sure enough an isolated supercell formed in the meager 2-5% area and dropped a whopping 7 tornadoes which is insane for this area, some of these were wedge tornadoes rated up to EF-2 [probably would have been higher had they hit significant structures which luckily they didn't.]

A video frame grab as the tornado approaches I-57 only a few miles south of the densely populated suburbs of Chicago

Storm reports, surely the MDT risk areas did not bust, but the IL storm was the storm of the day as far as photogenic tornadoes goes, and it was in the lower end of the probability scale.

Naturally we are drawn to the areas of greatest probability, since we want to do everything we can to increase our chances of success. Days like this serve as a reminder as to why forecasting skills are more important than what SPC says.

The recent tornado day 3-8-10 is an even greater example of this.

 

[Shane Adams]

June 12, 2009 No risk at the 13Z outlook. I checked data and then walked outside and thought "this feels like a chase day." Made my target, and headed out. Along our way to the target, a slight was introduced for my target area at the 1630Z, and we went on to intercept the storm of the day near Limon, and tracked it SE for most of the afternoon.

March 8, 2010 2% tornado day the night before and morning of, which was dropped that afternoon. We continued with our plan (although I nearly screwed us out of it) and intercepted a trio of tornadoes late in the day.

As always, I just want to say I appreciate the SPC on both good and bad days. I was thinking today at work, when the SPC nails it on a given day, and chasers score, the chasers get the credit. When the SPC busts and chasers see nothing, the SPC gets the credit.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

This isn't exactly a career chase but for a "Hey, it's close by and I don't have anything better to do" chase, it turned out pretty good.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1otlk_20090430_2000.html

I remember that day the cap was very strong and didn't expect anything to go up. Ross Kimes and I sat outside Kingfisher hoping that something would break the cap. It wasn't until sunset that I got a call from another chaser and friend, Scott Peake, that he saw a tower going up. Given the excellent thermodynamics (~4000 cape) and some old outflow boundaries around, the storm exploded and was quickly tornado warned.

I wasn't able to get any pictures of the storm but the images of the perfect barber pole updraft in the twilight is burned into my memory. It never produced before dissipating as fast as it exploded.

I thought the night was over but on our way back to Norman, another storm exploded near Kingfisher. It wasn't structured as nicely but we were treated to a barrage baseballs and hail fog in Yukon.

Again, nothing incredible but it's really sweet on almost cap bust to score two explosive supercells. The icing on the cake is when you are one of a very few chasers on the storm. Which is something that you don't get on MDT and HIGH risk days.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Most obvious one of these for me is May 24, 2008. While most chasers targeted Nebraska or Kansas a few enterprising individuals were in Oklahoma and caught the entire show (11+ tornadoes?) from start to finish along the outflow boundary, well south of the greatest threat area as outlined by the SPC in the morning.

Another great example for me that I think is less common was May 8, 2007:

Which netted this little low contrast tube near Lawton with amazing structure (this image brings back painful memories of having a crappy consumer hd cam with low contrast, OH THE HORROR!):

I'm sure there are numerous examples from peeps who did their own forecasting and were rewarded. I hope any of the newer folks to chasing who still have trouble producing their own forecasts take all of these stories to heart and it motivates them like many of these same stories motivated me to get better...just migrating to the center of the highest risk area as outlined by the SPC doesn't guarantee success. Those guys are great at what they do, but they NEVER get them all right.

 

[jamesmseitz]

The Best Tornado I have seen Lately was Goshen WY. It was a very small 10 % and that Tornado was on the gound for a good time. Wonderfully Back light. And I was on a Hill about 300 feet high,or so, looking out at it with no obstruction. As you all know by Vortex 2 the last few minutes I WILL NEVER FORGET !!!!!. Slight days usually produce less storm as well (usually) and not to mention not as many less experienced (stupid) chasers out!

 

[MatthewCarman]

I never chased this day but June 7, 2009 comes to mind. A huge chaser fest in Missouri as everyone followed a super cell that looked to produce and nobody was expecting anything in Colorado. At least 5 tornadoes ended up touching down north of Denver and were very photogenic.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/2009/0608/19686264_240X180.jpg Brittany Mckown took the picture.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/090607/act-plot.gif SPC reports page.

 

[Derek Weston]

think the real test here is to imagine yourself before the even with option of being anywhere you wanted. and then to know you wouldn't have choosen anything too close to what the SPC bullseye might be. i think plenty of us end up with targets not in the SPC bullseye because of time/money/geographical constraints.

(not saying that those who posted in this thread did this....)

 

[Rejean Boudreau]

Less storm also equals less junk to go through and better quality images. Just need to do a good forecast of the situation to be on the isolated storm spot. Big bonus photo opportunities. Also, some of us don't always chase for tornadoes or chase even if probs are not there - specially at night. A good spot, a nice storm with multiple CGs - again Big bonus photo shots.

Having said that, being from Canada... When i go down in the Tx, Ok, Ks, or the area, i'm looking/expecting/hoping for big setups. But even if the setup is not that great, we'll be out to catch whatever there is. The Panhandle, North Ok, and western KS - so many superb spots to take pictures/videos with un-obstructed view/sight. Never chased much to Nebraska and north - but seems great as well.

Here's a pic from last year (april in Tx, near Odessa/Midland) - a 5% afternoon, got that fire from a CG in the oil field, that gave that plume of smoke being sucked in the storm. As i said, low tornado probs on that day, but great photo ops. Later we continue our chase and got good size hail, then a back lighted wall cloud - no tornado on that day, but what a day.

That was april 11th 2009 - don't look for SPC report map, there's none.

Whatever the SPC is giving on the map - it's still your decision to go where your own forecast will lead you - and maybe out of the way from the followers.

Below, 0% tornado, not even a thunderstorm warning, but a thunderstorm came out and ... voila !!

 

[Bill Tabor]

May 3rd 2003 Stonewall / Haskell County Surprise

More Pix: http://www.tornadoxtreme.com/Chases_By_Year/2003_Chases/May_3rd/may_3rd.html
SPC Day 1 20z: Looks like they missed with the 20z Categorical Slight, but may have just barely caught the 2% Probabilistic edge for Tornado. Earlier outlooks were a bit better except the 06z which I had looked at the night before. By 20z they were definitely primarily looking elsewhere though. I recall our storm went severe / tornado warned without being in a tornado watch box. I heard of Tim Marshall who had been further north in the Panhandle diving south to make it.

Repost of old account from WX-CHASE:...

Why do I call it "surprise"? Well, I guess because so many were looking - elsewhere that day. This was a great chase
day for me for a couple of reasons: 1) because of the fact that it was a wonderful dynamic storm, with lots of exciting
features and tornadoes / wallclouds; 2) This supercell formed right where I had forecasted it to be & right on time even
though I bet against SPC in this case.

The day started strange with me thinking (the night before) that the place to be was between Dodge City and Woodward.
However after looking at it again in the morning I came to the conclusion that the area between Childress, and Snyder Tx
was prime. I took off (alone)...I don't remember when. I think it was 10am or so. Headed straight up 183 toward
Abilene. Once north of ABI I checked vis sat and there were cu growing in my area! Then I found out that SPC had
removed even a slight risk in that area - I believe. I started wondering if they were crazy or if I was! I knew there
was very high cape and LI's - there was a dryline and what was left of the E/W front which got pretty much washed out to
NE I believe. DA was showing high convergence in the area - a good sign. I continued on to the area hwy 83 to
Aspermont and then 380 west out to Kent county. I think I then went on thru the town of Clairmont and up 208. Somewhere
along the way on 83 I could see a large tower in the distance! Then a tornado watch was issued! So, I began to believe
maybe I wasn't so crazy after all. By the time I caught up to the first storm of the day it already had a svr warning
on it. There were actually two cells one north of my southern cell. Originally the northern cell showed better
rotation.

On hwy 208 I pulled over to get data in an analog area which I am currently having trouble with. I hadn't seen any
other chasers but suddenly as I'm looking down at the pc along drives up....Gene Moore. How the heck? SPC has a
moderate risk up north in NE and a torn box up there, in the Tx panhandle and east over the Red River near SPS, but Gene
(who I hadn't talked to at all about this) had the same idea and area. Small world. Happy to see Gene we both head off
following after the storm which had now moved off to the east. We caught the cell north of Jayton and parked under it
checking out the base. At first it didn't look too good, but I hope it was still getting it's act together. Turned out
that was correct - we were seeing signs of rotation in the base. We followed back SE toward Aspermont - but not wanting
to lose the storm Gene found a dirt road Ranch 1263. Well, this road wound around and went north, then east, then south
on down toward - eventually Old Glory. I believe the roads were: Ranch 1263, Ranch 3431, to Ranch 1835. At one point
the road ran a number of miles up under the base taking us into somewhat dangerous territory with the sky spinning above
and in the distance. I kept hanging my head out and all around looking to make sure something wasn't coming down on top
of me. As we dashed south on 1835 I was looking in my review mirror through the back window, Suddenly the whole sky
just came down to the ground and was churning. Gene eventually noticed it and we pulled over. That's when I took the
shot of the first tornado. There was a svr warning in progress at the time. We then got down to Old Glory and turned NE
on 380 toward Rule. We went up 3 miles or so and watched two very large wallclouds / funnels with the one further east
(toward Rule) being almost on the ground. We drove closer to Rule a mile or so to tell if it was on the ground but by
that time it had lifted substantially. It remained that way for a bit and then a large core wrapped around and obscured
both wallclouds. At that point we went south and then east toward Sagerton on hwy 283. To the north I could see the
large dark area where the tornado and funnels had been. We almost took hwy 6 north toward Rule, but believed that the
area was already cut off. Instead we continued just SE of Sagerton on 283 / 6 and filmed one quick, weak tornado due
north of our position, and then I shot pictures of a weak multi-vortex just north of Sagerton. Not wanting to lose the
storm we continued to Stamford & got gas. We could see a large lowering to the north. We then heard reports of very
large hail and a multi-vortex tornado 8 south of Haskell and 1 to 2 east of hwy 277. We shot north on hwy 277 toward
Haskell and turned east on Ranch 618. Along the way there was reports of a tornado headed for Lake Stamford very near
our position. We filmed another very weak multi-vortex tornado at that location and continued east across a bridge. We
passed my brother in law's ranch and wanted to take the first dirt road left after the bridge, but it was all mud and
Gene's tires were low on tread. That was Loop road. Instead we continued on the road we were on to Rockdale road which
wound around and eventually hit Loop road. Along that way Gene jumped out with his camcorder and tripod and filmed a
long rope tornado. I just barely caught it. I might have done better with my 35mm but haven't developed it yet. I
believe Gene got a really nice shot of it though. That was it for the tornadoes that night.

We continued on down the road and it became more and more muddy and slippery. Luckily we both had 4WD and I just bought
new Michelin All Terrain's recently. However on down the road there was a group of chasers all out of their vehicles
and flagging us down at a bend in the road. Apparently one of the pickup trucks had slid over into the ditch rather
than turning the corner. Probably the turn snuck up and the 2WD vehicle just couldn't stay on. [Note: the valid use of
4WD and SUV's for chasing here...you skeptics - lol]. Turns out it was "Speedy" Reed and crew which Gene and I had run
into last year near Snyder. They had friends out from California. They were all having a blast but in a bit of
difficulty. Fortunately Gene had a strong chain and volunteered to pull them out of the ditch. That was successful -
however unfortunately the ball joint / tie rod was broken on the left driver side. Good news is that Reed and company
had caught the big tornado by taking Loop road up the mud. In retrospect I guess we could have made it, but weren't
willing to sacrifice the storm to see if we could keep from sliding off at the time. It was a very nice large cone
tornado. We believe it was this tornadoe's rope stage that we caught over off of Rockdale.

Anyway, that's pretty much the long of it. I can't say anything short apparently. I have posted updated pictures with
captions to my website of the 5 tornadoes, funnels, wallclouds, etc. This was a great chase! Enjoy:

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

A big one, though I suppose it snuck up on just about everyone is April 20th 2004.

Here's the 2000Z outlook issued around the time the Chicago WFO HWO stated "no severe storms forecasted"

And eventually the reports:

My account from that day can be seen here, though the low contrast and poor quality video captures don't leave much to be excited over.

http://prairiestormmedia.com/20040420.html



Adam hit another big one with June 7th 2008. While it's been said that the day "fell into my lap" it was apparent long before that tornado potential existed in north central IL. Some potential was visible the night before (highly unstable warm front scenario with very favorable hodographs, but a stout cap), though the main draw was to Iowa and southern Minnesota where things seemed more obvious. However, just a quick glance at a little data in the early afternoon on the 7th showed that much of northern Illinois was absolutely juiced. However, with the main event in Iowa and Minnesota this region did not garner much attention until the supercell of the day was producing wedge tornado after wedge tornado. I think at 1 PM, MLcape was around 4500 j/kg with 0-1 km helicity near 450. However, if one were to follow the SPC outlooks or the spotter network icon clusters they'd have ended up far from the main event.

 

[Jay McCoy]

One obvious one is May 3rd 1999. That day started out as a slight risk only. Ofcourse by the 2000z it was high risk..lol. I had worked all night and was going to have to work the next night so I had to make a tough decision to go or not and then come back and work again with only a few hours sleep that morning. I am soo glad I went.. Caught some great video of the Anadarko tornado with the Moore/Bridgecreek wedge further in the background

 

[Justin Turcotte]

This was the day Mike H. snapped an infamous pic near Alvo, NE. I was on the other side of the storm and saw this:

 

[Verne Carlson]

June 15, 2009 was a day that a lone supercell over Elizabeth, CO produced 4 tornadoes!

Barely in the slight risk and outside the 2% tornado risk area. I'd be lying if I said I targeted this area. I happened into it by dumb luck leaving Denver late. The new rule we have is don't leave CO before noon when there is any kind of upslope into the Palmer Divide!

Tornado #1

Tornado #2

Tornado #3

 

[Aaron Strum]

This was the day Mike H. snapped an infamous pic near Alvo, NE. I was on the other side of the storm and saw this:

What day was this? I'm just wondering as I am from Michigan.