Tony Laubach
EF5
Thought it would be cool to hear your stories of low-risk successes. This is NOT an SPC bash, this is simply a fun way to show that you don't need higher end risks to have a good day. Try to include the SPC outlook, maybe the trends through the day, why you stuck with/chose the target you did, and the end result.
Basically, I want you to share your experiences of low-risk chase days and why you don't necessarily have to chase moderate and high risk days.
Remember that the SPC graphics are for overall severe risks, so instances such as what I am about to describe are not completely out of the question and likely do not fall within the SPC categorical forecasts because they are very isolated events that would not warrent a categorical risk!
JUNE 10, 2009 - SOUTHWEST KANSAS
1300z Tornado Probs (within the slight risk)
2000z Tornado Probs (now in a general t-storm risk area)
We had originally targeted southern Missouri/southeast Kansas for this day, but given the seemingly endless number of days of severe weather and tornadoes across the high plains, it was hard to ignore this setup.
I weighed my target decision heavily on the overall lack of change in the pattern combined with a June 11th target in southeast Colorado. Surface features supported a severe storm chance, but dwindled through the day as hinted by SPC's downgrade in forecast for my target area.
When we left in the morning, we ventured west from Blackwell, OK to this target, then turned around for southeast Kansas when analysis looked grim at best. After Taco Bell, we again stopped where my case was pleaded and we eventually turned ourselves back around to southwest Kansas.
Southeast flow increased a bit during the day as storms formed off the southern foothills of Colorado and moved east into southwest Kansas. A messy line of sub-severe storms formed and pushed toward the US-83 corridor where we had set up shop to await these storms.
Our storm matured into an embedded HP and took on some tight rotation. Very shortly after, a white cone formed north of Sublette and remained on the ground for about 3 minutes.
Meanwhile, the slight risk that was introduced at 1300z and remained at 1630z went away to an area of general thunderstorms. We still managed a tornado, low-contrast, but still pretty stout. It was my biggest chasing success of the year given the way the forecast went down.
Basically, I want you to share your experiences of low-risk chase days and why you don't necessarily have to chase moderate and high risk days.
Remember that the SPC graphics are for overall severe risks, so instances such as what I am about to describe are not completely out of the question and likely do not fall within the SPC categorical forecasts because they are very isolated events that would not warrent a categorical risk!
JUNE 10, 2009 - SOUTHWEST KANSAS
![day1probotlk_20090610_1300_torn_prt.gif](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Farchive%2F2009%2Fday1probotlk_20090610_1300_torn_prt.gif&hash=8d833698f927c1436fae57da9fb70d00)
1300z Tornado Probs (within the slight risk)
![day1probotlk_20090610_2000_torn_prt.gif](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Farchive%2F2009%2Fday1probotlk_20090610_2000_torn_prt.gif&hash=89600245e8149d385716b4437e5430ca)
2000z Tornado Probs (now in a general t-storm risk area)
We had originally targeted southern Missouri/southeast Kansas for this day, but given the seemingly endless number of days of severe weather and tornadoes across the high plains, it was hard to ignore this setup.
I weighed my target decision heavily on the overall lack of change in the pattern combined with a June 11th target in southeast Colorado. Surface features supported a severe storm chance, but dwindled through the day as hinted by SPC's downgrade in forecast for my target area.
When we left in the morning, we ventured west from Blackwell, OK to this target, then turned around for southeast Kansas when analysis looked grim at best. After Taco Bell, we again stopped where my case was pleaded and we eventually turned ourselves back around to southwest Kansas.
Southeast flow increased a bit during the day as storms formed off the southern foothills of Colorado and moved east into southwest Kansas. A messy line of sub-severe storms formed and pushed toward the US-83 corridor where we had set up shop to await these storms.
Our storm matured into an embedded HP and took on some tight rotation. Very shortly after, a white cone formed north of Sublette and remained on the ground for about 3 minutes.
![20090610vid_04.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tornadoeskick.com%2Fimages%2F2009%2F20090610vid_04.jpg&hash=f4486e0400d1c044f70ea7f3872481d3)
Meanwhile, the slight risk that was introduced at 1300z and remained at 1630z went away to an area of general thunderstorms. We still managed a tornado, low-contrast, but still pretty stout. It was my biggest chasing success of the year given the way the forecast went down.
![090610_rpts.gif](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fclimo%2Freports%2F090610_rpts.gif&hash=80528035a1cdc9578ca8dda04ee80005)