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Why did I miss the tornado?

From my perspective (as a chasecationer who comes over for ~2.5 week from the UK each year) at least some tornadoes have been missed due to indecision...somehow being between 2 developing areas of storms, and not committing and going for at least one of them!

In more recent years, a desire to try the less-obvious target has caused frustration - Dodge City, 2016, being one! Although I think, to be blunt, I just lost situational awareness of the decent boundary, and decided (during the haul north from N TX) to target an area of the eastern TX Panhandle, as it was nearer. Saw a nice LP storm - didn't see xx number of tornadoes! The following day was also a miss, being suckered SE of Wichita, having eyed up Salina as being the place to head to! Needless to say, I sharpened my senses again after that, and ensured I looked more closely (again) at boundaries, etc.
 
My entire chase career is nothing but a series of painful "how I missed the tornado" stories:

June 16, 2014: Missed the Stanton-Pilger-Wakefield four-EF4 show by about 45 minutes due to a combination of "sleeping in" (it was the first day of my vacation and I work a 3AM-noon shift) and leaving an hour later than I'd planned, then panicking at the sight of midmorning convection over my original target area of Sioux City during a data check, retargeting to Omaha (which, to be fair, had an epic forecast sounding as well), and making a navigational error which took me even farther out of my way. Had any one of those things not happened, I could have at least caught part of the Wakefield tornado. As it was, I reached the storm as it shrunk into a photogenic LP, produced a last-gasp bird fart near Hubbard, and rapidly weakened as it ran into the air stabilized by that morning convection I had been worried about.

April 9, 2015: Sat in Forreston, IL (about 30 miles northwest of Rochelle as the crow flies) until about 5 PM, then gave up and went home, arriving just in time to watch the debris ball on radar. Again a combination of factors/excuses. The setup didn't appear high-end enough with enough lead time for me to justify taking days off, so I was tired from working 3AM-noon that day and faced the prospect of doing the same the next day (so if I stayed chasing till, say, 8 PM and got home at 9:30, I'd get less than 4 1/2 hours of sleep); the fact that my car's CHECK ENGINE light had come on during the drive down, I didn't know what the problem was but didn't want it dying on me in the path of a tornado or hail core; and general pessimism about the setup (I had chased another northern Illinois warm front setup the previous April that busted, and the day seemed to be playing out exactly as the scoffers had predicted, with a small window for tornadoes in Iowa quickly closing as storms lined out along the cold front).

June 22, 2015: Was within two miles of a rain-wrapped EF2 as it formed south of Amboy, IL and struck the Woodhaven Lakes campground west of Sublette, but saw nothing but a wall of rain. I was uneasy about getting into the "Bear's Cage" of a tornadic HP and took my escape route (US 52) southeast to stay ahead of and eventually drop south of the action area. Had I just stayed put the tornado would have passed just to my west and I would have had a much clearer view. I don't really regret this one as it was a conscious decision made in the name of safety, but it still stings knowing how close I was to a much better shot, even though this tornado was not particularly photogenic especially compared to the previous two events.

March 15, 2016: Glimpsed in the after-sunset lightning flashes a large cone funnel hanging down below the tree line to my northwest from Hanna City, IL (confirmed by survey as an EF2 tornado). However, instead of staying put and shooting it (bird in the hand and all that), my chase partner and I opted to blast east to stay ahead of the storm. We never saw it again in the darkness.

May 20, 2019: Parked on US 62 between Duke and Gould, OK; poised to intercept the eventual Mangum supercell just as it began to look good on radar. Waited until I was sure the base must have crossed the highway to my west, unable to make out any features in the murky haze (in retrospect, the tornado actually hadn't started yet). Just as I was about to pull back onto 62 to head east back to Duke and north on OK-34 which would have taken me right to Mangum, I was met by a solid string of headlights coming east. I had to go west all the way to Gould just to find an opening to spin a uie and join the conga line, which put me hopelessly behind as it moved no more than 35-40 MPH with the person in front of me frequently coming to a near-stop to take pictures with their phone out the driver's window.

Honorable mentions for missing the tornado(es), or at least a chance at seeing the tornado(es) by not chasing: February 28, 2017: Because it was BLOODY FEBRUARY in the upper Midwest, it had been something like 25 degrees with snow and freezing rain in Madison like three days before. December 1, 2018 because apparently the previous didn't teach me not to dismiss deep cool season setups north of Dixie Alley on sight. May 24, 2019: Kalona-Iowa City, IA because Iowa ALWAYS performs on the days it's not supposed to, and vice versa. EVERY other cell that day failed to become sustained long enough to produce.
 
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June 22, 2015: Was within two miles of a rain-wrapped EF2 as it formed south of Amboy, IL and struck the Woodhaven Lakes campground west of Sublette, but saw nothing but a wall of rain. I was uneasy about getting into the "Bear's Cage" of a tornadic HP and took my escape route (US 52) southeast to stay ahead of and eventually drop south of the action area. Had I just stayed put the tornado would have passed just to my west and I would have had a much clearer view. I don't really regret this one as it was a conscious decision made in the name of safety, but it still stings knowing how close I was to a much better shot, even though this tornado was not particularly photogenic especially compared to the previous two events.

To be fair, you had to be in the tornado to see it really. Lucio was the only other vehicle I saw in the cage that day, and then we got screwed by the power lines and trees falling on a road and cutting us off. That storm was HP af and PWAT values were >2 on the 00Z DVN that day. The storm motion and speed didn't help either.

May 20, 2019: Parked on US 62 between Duke and Gould, OK; poised to intercept the eventual Mangum supercell just as it began to look good on radar. Waited until I was sure the base must have crossed the highway to my west, unable to make out any features in the murky haze (in retrospect, the tornado actually hadn't started yet). Just as I was about to pull back onto 62 to head east back to Duke and north on OK-34 which would have taken me right to Mangum, I was met by a solid string of headlights coming east. I had to go west all the way to Gould just to find an opening to spin a uie and join the conga line, which put me hopelessly behind as it moved no more than 35-40 MPH with the person in front of me frequently coming to a near-stop to take pictures with their phone out the driver's window.

Do everything you can to stay way ahead of the storm. You're done as soon as you get in the conga line. I know that's an obvious answer, but it was easy to stay ahead that day. And the view was fine from the northeast.
 
Back when I started, I dedicated my life to chasing. Really. I sacrificed everything to be able to chase, because I had nothing. In reality, a person as broke as I was/am should never have even started chasing. But I found my life's dream, so I grabbed that son-of-a-bitch with both hands and strangled it. I lived my life this way for several years, missing out on life events, developing/nurturing friendships, and destroying relationships. I regret none of it.

As I got older and became involved in a serious relationship that was obviously starting to become a "lifelong" type deal, around 2012, I started to do something I had never done prior during the storm chasing portion of my life: I started considering other people. I started to concern myself with how my chasing gambles and sacrifices would affect Bridget, who initially came out to be with me TO start chasing. But once we realized we were "in it" for life, that changed things. My 24/7 on-fire chasing passion could really send our normal, daily life into a tailspin, reaping the repercussions of my "caution to the wind" attitude about putting "normal life" on hold to chase. I started to see the stresses it was putting her under because, at the end of the day, she was always a Mom to two boys first, before she was ever a storm chaser.

So chasing, for the first time in my life since I began, stopped being my #1 priority. I could easily have stayed with the lifestyle and kept sacrificing everything myself, because chasing is all I want, still, at almost 48 years old. It's all I've ever wanted, and it will always be. But finding a balance is a responsibility I thrust on myself when I involved another person in my life, and because of that I've had to try and figure a way to channel/harness my chasing passion so that I don't let it override my daily life responsibilities. The problem for me is that, that way of thinking has become natural, and hence, it became a built-in excuse to pass on setups that were "too far away" or "too much of a longshot" or "in bad terrain."

The "secret" to my success during the years when I was killing it was simple: all I did was focus on chasing. Not sitting around taking forecast classes or reading textbooks, just thinking about chasing 24/7. It consumed me, and there was no room for anything else. The more I learned, the less I thought about things beyond the basic forecast/chase strategy. I was almost automatic, like each chase was scripted before I left the house, with a Plan B,C & D should Plan A go wonky. It didn't always mean success, but it guaranteed a focus on every chase that was the maximum effort I was capable of giving. That's as good as you can be.

My issue for the past several years has been that lack of focus, the inability to "turn off" real life concerns/problems/worries while out chasing. Letting those things creep into the back of my mind until they start to influence my decisions; let's not go so far, I have to work tomorrow....this is a huge gamble and we don't have enough money to chase that seemingly sure-thing setup four days from now. The kinds of things chasers who have responsibilities must worry about. The knowledge that regardless of what happens, unless you die tonight, you WILL wake up tomorrow and have to deal with the consequences of the next day.

So my struggle since 2012 more or less has been trying to find balance, more to the point, trying to figure out a way to maximize the few opportunities we get. Chasing 4-6 times a year wouldn't be an issue if we could nail 3-4 of those days. But when they ALL go to garbage, that's soul crushing. In fact the new analogy I've been using is, these endless, wasted seasons of nothing to show and little opportunity kill my horcruxes. If I started with seven, I've got about 2-3 left maybe.

I need chasing. I need tornadoes. I need it to validate myself. I don't mind saying that out loud, in fact I'll shout it from the rooftop. "Passion Twist Video" isn't just a clever brand name. "Passion" is the first word because it means something. I have to find ways to get tornadoes in my viewfinder again. I have to find ways to better ourselves personally/financially so that the odds of goal #1 are better and better. But mostly what I know is, I will never stop fighting that battle, until the day I stop drawing breath. Shane Adams is goddamned storm chaser. That's who I am. That's why I exist. All this other stuff is just the penalty for existing. Working, paying bills, holidays with family....all the stuff we all have to do because we're alive. But that's not living. Being out on the open road, smelling tornado fuel on a stiff southerly breeze, and watching that low, rotating base just west of you. THAT'S living. And that's what I'm chasing 'til the end of my days.
 
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I only count them as misses if I actually chase. There were some big days I chose not to chase, but I rarely regret that choice, because in every case I can think of, I had a good reason not to. If the Campo tornado had happened any other day, I would have chased, as I was in NM and thought that somewhere around northeast NM or southeast CO looked like a good target that day. And the tornadoes near Campo occurred off and on for so long that I almost could have driven there from Santa Fe when the first warning was issued and seen at least some of the best one. But we had tickets to a Crosby, Stills, and Nash concert that day in ABQ, and it was an experience I will never forget - as they performed outdoors, the Sandia Mountains behind them were brilliantly illuminated by the setting sun. And though I did not know it at the time, that turned out to be my last chance to see them, since they stopped touring within a year or so later. Another time, when I was department chair, I had committed to go to graduation at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville on what turned out to be a great chase day in northeast MO, a couple hours drive away. But I knew that if I wanted my colleagues to attend graduation when they said they would, I needed to set an example. Photogenic tornadoes occurred, but I was in a packed gym listening to boring graduation speeches. And although I chased in OK the day before both the Moore tornado and the El Reno tornado in 2013, I had told my wife I would be home the next day and when I say that I nearly always stick to it. Not that I really regret missing either of those; I think chasing either would have been more frightening/upsetting and potentially dangerous than enjoyable. And there was the time I chased a southern Illinois storm for 2 or 3 hours and broke off from it a half hour before it finally produced a tornado, because I needed to get home for my daughter's birthday celebration. I don't count any of those as misses, any more than any other day I did not chase and there was a tornado. And I don't regret any of them.

So what DO I count as a miss? When I chase, there are tornadoes I could have seen, but I miss them because of either a bad forecast or because of bad choices in the heat of the chase. And I would say I have missed a lot more because of the latter than the former. Usually I can get myself to a place where I have a decent shot at seeing a tornado, but many times I have missed because of bad road choices or poor chase strategies. In some cases, over-reacting to mess-ups the last time I chased. And the most frustrating ones at the times I have been on the right storm but then somehow manage to miss the tornado or tornadoes. For example, on that day before the 2013 Moore tornado, I was on a storm near I-35 right at the border of KS and OK. The storm dropped a nice rope tornado that, if you were in the right place, was rather photogenic. But somehow, though I was on the storm the entire time that tornado occurred, I managed never to see it. On April 19, 2011, I was on the storm that produced a photogenic tornado near Litchfield, IL, but chased it too aggressively into the flood plain of the Illinois River and ended up without a good east route once the storm was near me, and got overrun by the core then behind the storm with no view when it dropped the tornado. If I had just driven 30 miles up I-55 from home and waited, I would have had a great view of the tornado. And I could cite a number of other, similar cases to these. Road choices and chase strategies that make or break a chase. Fortunately, I have done it right enough times to see some really nice tornadoes, but it still drives me nuts when I target the right area, pick the right storm, and then find a way to mess it up. To me, those are the real misses.
 
Back when I started, I dedicated my life to chasing. Really. I sacrificed everything to be able to chase, because I had nothing. In reality, a person as broke as I was/am should never have even started chasing. But I found my life's dream, so I grabbed that son-of-a-bitch with both hands and strangled it. I lived my life this way for several years, missing out on life events, developing/nurturing friendships, and destroying relationships. I regret none of it.

As I got older and became involved in a serious relationship that was obviously starting to become a "lifelong" type deal, around 2012, I started to do something I had never done prior during the storm chasing portion of my life: I started considering other people. I started to concern myself with how my chasing gambles and sacrifices would affect Bridget, who initially came out to be with me TO start chasing. But once we realized we were "in it" for life, that changed things. My 24/7 on-fire chasing passion could really send our normal, daily life into a tailspin, reaping the repercussions of my "caution to the wind" attitude about putting "normal life" on hold to chase. I started to see the stresses it was putting her under because, at the end of the day, she was always a Mom to two boys first, before she was ever a storm chaser.

So chasing, for the first time in my life since I began, stopped being my #1 priority. I could easily have stayed with the lifestyle and kept sacrificing everything myself, because chasing is all I want, still, at almost 48 years old. It's all I've ever wanted, and it will always be. But finding a balance is a responsibility I thrust on myself when I involved another person in my life, and because of that I've had to try and figure a way to channel/harness my chasing passion so that I don't let it override my daily life responsibilities. The problem for me is that, that way of thinking has become natural, and hence, it became a built-in excuse to pass on setups that were "too far away" or "too much of a longshot" or "in bad terrain."

The "secret" to my success during the years when I was killing it was simple: all I did was focus on chasing. Not sitting around taking forecast classes or reading textbooks, just thinking about chasing 24/7. It consumed me, and there was no room for anything else. The more I learned, the less I thought about things beyond the basic forecast/chase strategy. I was almost automatic, like each chase was scripted before I left the house, with a Plan B,C & D should Plan A go wonky. It didn't always mean success, but it guaranteed a focus on every chase that was the maximum effort I was capable of giving. That's as good as you can be.

My issue for the past several years has been that lack of focus, the inability to "turn off" real life concerns/problems/worries while out chasing. Letting those things creep into the back of my mind until they start to influence my decisions; let's not go so far, I have to work tomorrow....this is a huge gamble and we don't have enough money to chase that seemingly sure-thing setup four days from now. The kinds of things chasers who have responsibilities must worry about. The knowledge that regardless of what happens, unless you die tonight, you WILL wake up tomorrow and have to deal with the consequences of the next day.

So my struggle since 2012 more or less has been trying to find balance, more to the point, trying to figure out a way to maximize the few opportunities we get. Chasing 4-6 times a year wouldn't be an issue if we could nail 3-4 of those days. But when they ALL go to garbage, that's soul crushing. In fact the new analogy I've been using is, these endless, wasted seasons of nothing to show and little opportunity kill my horcruxes. If I started with seven, I've got about 2-3 left maybe.

I need chasing. I need tornadoes. I need it to validate myself. I don't mind saying that out loud, in fact I'll shout it from the rooftop. "Passion Twist Video" isn't just a clever brand name. "Passion" is the first word because it means something. I have to find ways to get tornadoes in my viewfinder again. I have to find ways to better ourselves personally/financially so that the odds of goal #1 are better and better. But mostly what I know is, I will never stop fighting that battle, until the day I stop drawing breath. Shane Adams is goddamned storm chaser. That's who I am. That's why I exist. All this other stuff is just the penalty for existing. Working, paying bills, holidays with family....all the stuff we all have to do because we're alive. But that's not living. Being out on the open road, smelling tornado fuel on a stiff southerly breeze, and watching that low, rotating base just west of you. THAT'S living. And that's what I'm chasing 'til the end of my days.

That was a beautiful text, Shane!

We all share much of that passion and we all have our own limitations - mine mainly being living in Sweden. Nowadays I have a family with two small kids and going chasing is getting increasingly more difficult and I was both surprised and incredibly happy that we could figure out a solution so I could go chasing once again. This makes my whole year! Before, I didn't start getting excited until maybe a month before but nowadays I start anticipating the trip already in January. I have felt for many years now that this year is probably gonna be my last for a while, but I have always managed.

As I typically only have 1-3 weeks of chasing I have never tried chasing by myself. I have never really wanted to invest the time (and lose a season or two) in order to go by myself. Still, things have worked out fine as I have been able to with tours and chase partners. If there has ever been a missed tornado, it has thus never really been my fault (as well as the opposite) which brings the bets down for both good and bad. Misses tend to disappear in my memory, thankfully, and although I have had a few painful ones with Chapman 2016 being on top there has mostly been about either missing out on a "normal" tornado or completely missing it. I am glad I never had to suffer through misses like the ones you are mentioning - like having car issues 5 miles away from a tornado.

The one tornado that often comes to mind though is Simla, CO. We were chasing in Wyoming the day before and went for the north central KS target (afair it was because of insane CAPE) but had a lift bust. Had we stayed in the area we probably would have seen Simla. Still, I was chasing with people who didn't adher to the same rules of safety as I to put it mildly. I was kind of glad not seeing tornadoes during that chase, but that's a whole different story.
 
As I typically only have 1-3 weeks of chasing I have never tried chasing by myself. I have never really wanted to invest the time (and lose a season or two) in order to go by myself.

A rather obvious recommendation, but you should definitely do some solo chasing. Your knowledge and experience gains will be significantly boosted, as you'll be humbled even more by your successes and failures (because each one will be uniquely yours). And if/when you do manage to nail a tornado while alone, the ecstasy will also be enhanced. It will just be you and nature out there. No need to have someone to celebrate with...you'll have that moment to yourself for the rest of your life...something no one can take away from you.
 
A rather obvious recommendation, but you should definitely do some solo chasing. Your knowledge and experience gains will be significantly boosted, as you'll be humbled even more by your successes and failures (because each one will be uniquely yours). And if/when you do manage to nail a tornado while alone, the ecstasy will also be enhanced. It will just be you and nature out there. No need to have someone to celebrate with...you'll have that moment to yourself for the rest of your life...something no one can take away from you.

I fully agree! (I also agree with Christoffer about @Shane Adams writing a great piece above). I also have to travel over to the US from Europe (the UK) to follow my dream - and it was always a dream from a young age, but seemed a million miles away for many years.

Chasing on your own terms brings risk and reward - yes, you can miss stuff (the risk) which more experience and/or more decision makers you might not have - but, then again, everyone has misses, including the tours. So why not miss on your own terms? The wins sure make up for it!
 
You are off course right and I would love to chase solo in the future, or at least with someone of equal knowledge as I know this would increase my knowledge a whole lot having to be the one making the final decisions etc. The first reason I haven't done so is that I have my tour review website for which I want to cover as many tour companies as possible on a first-hand basis (I have tried 8 different tours so far and a have very in-depth knowledge in what they do and how they do it). The second reason is that I have also had so much fun chasing with my friends David and Alex (and David also have the perfect chase vehicle). The third, most important, reason is that I have never wanted to gamble one season and possibly fail miserably after waiting a whole year for tornado season.

Nowadays, it's not really an option either as I will only be chasing for 7 days. But, I will go solo one day when I have more time to chase again.
 
Christoffer, I don’t think you would really have to gamble a season. You have probably picked up way more than you realize over the years, and would probably surprise yourself with relatively good results.

My own first season was 1999, and that was after three years on tours. I caught the Basset NE tornado that year. I’m sure I missed stuff then too (and definitely have missed many things since), but now it’s 20 years later so who cares? If you bite the bullet sooner rather than later, before you know it you will have many years of chasing behind you and will be glad you got the first year gamble over with when you did. You don’t want to look back with regret that you could have been chasing yourself for the past however-many years.

You could also split the difference, basically chasing on your own but maybe confirming your forecast against someone else’s, or getting some nowcasting assistance, etc.

I can definitely second what Jeff and Paul said. I want to live and die by my own decisions, for better or for worse. Over the years I have refused to even chase with good friends who were more experienced, just because I didn’t want to just end up mindlessly following them. My chase partner has always been the same guy who just isn’t as into the forecasting; he is certainly a help in the field making decisions, looking at radar, navigating, etc., but the forecast decisions are basically mine, which is the way I like it.
 
The biggest reason is 'I never left home' .LOL.

Some background (even though I know parts of it are somewhere in other posts on here):
Until a couple years ago, I even know storm chasing was a thing (don't know how I missed that since I've always loved a good thunderstorm!)
Last year I'd kinda hoped to pick a storm & go chase/see it, but that didn't happen. I did 'watch' some storms or radar (and actually did ok at picking which severe-warned ones would become tornado-warned))
There are some things that held me back are:
* The simple fact I'd never done it, and really wasn't sure on what/how/etc all to go about it..
* I also had a very limited cellphone plan(but it was free so no complaints). So basically having no data on the road, unless I could find a store or something with free wi-fi to stop at, no radar..
* I was thinking I could just look ar radar, pick a larger and/or sever storm while at home, then head out & hopefully get a place to jump on wi-fi along the way.
* I also didn't really realize that its more-so late-afternoon/evening before the storms really get going, I figured I could get an early afternoon storm & be back home by dinnertime. (avoiding the clusterf--k of rush-hour atleast heading out)

with the above:
* Having had another year to read stuff/watch videos/etc, I feel more confident than last year. I also plan to try & attend a Skywarn spotter training this spring.
* The (free) cellphone plan I had was discontinued, I'm gonna have to find a new (low-cost) one to replace it, probably get a new phone too since the current one is really out of date.
* The idea of picking an already severe-warned storm at home I don't think is going to work, because of the distance, exactly how to go about it I haven't figured out. Its probably going to have to be a matter of picking a spot based off the SPC pages/info...along with a 'best guess' on which of the smaller storms .might. do something...
* The thing with storms being early afternoon comes from me being near the mountains...the little thundershowers we get start then (really didn't think about the fact they need to move farther out & grow). I now realize that I'll just have to get home a bit later (nice thing with summer is the longer daylight hours!).

Maybe this is the year I won't miss the tornado (and even if I do miss that, maybe I'll get to see some awesome storm structure & a good lightning show!)
 
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