Weekend of February 27-28-29

[Bob Schafer]

This looks kinda interesting, but I doubt I'll make the trip out from NM.

Model guidance suggests a decent low migrating across the mid-Plains with some notable moisture return ahead of it. Right now, though, the GFS indicates 1000mb temps below 24C until you get to deep south TX (on the 9day for Saturday). This seems a little weird to me....but that's what it says, lol.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9d/mrf_1000_9d.html

Other parameters all look pretty good. It will be fun to watch it for the next week. Is it a teaser, or more than that?

Bob

 

[Amos Magliocco]

more moisture trouble

It sure looks like a dynamic system. Unforuntately, the newest run shows the mid-week system (with little chase potential) leaving the southern plains in ruins moisture-wise for the weekend. Another strong-shear, no moisture episode, from the early guesses. Still something to watch!

Amos

 

[Simon Brewer]

The GFS is showing a good Mexican Supercell setup provided some deep moisture can make it to the Sierra Del Huacha across the border!

Anyone with a good 'severe head injury' would head down to the border to greet an intense cell into the country.

 

[George Tincher]

Very interesting. I'm not sure this will turn into much until it reaches the deep South this weekend, but it's worth watching. Areas along the Texas Gulf Coast, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and perhaps Florida (also Tennessee if good moisture return can happen after this current "moisture robber" moves through) will bear watching. That area is certainly favored climatologically anyway this time of year for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Isn't Mardi Gras in full swing this weekend also? Let us hope no dangerous weather will be moving through that area. Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes, huge crowds massed together and lots of booze are not a good combination. I would not want to be an emergency manager trying to deal with a situation like that. It is somewhat scary to see some of the largest gatherings taking place in areas during times when severe weather is at or nearing it's peak for that area. Mardi Gras is one, but then there is the the NASCAR race at Texas Speedway in April. Then we have the Indy 500 in May. On top of that there are numerous MLB baseball games played in tornado prone areas during peak tornado season. At least most of these events are well planned for and let's hope luck remains o our side and we never have to put those emergency precautions into use. But these large gatherings really worry me for the simple reason that a direct strike from a powerful (or even weak tornado), a derecho or even a hail storm could get really ugly, really fast.

 

[Bob Schafer]

You know, just a couple years ago, a 9day or 10day on the MRF was little more than a notion. By the time a week passed, the models had completely changed. How incredible that a week has now passed and the forecast for this weekend seems almost exactly like it was when I started this thread!!

I am considering making my first chase of the year, which would mean leaving in about 16 hours for LBB, but I want the models to show a little more Td and instability for Sat and Sun first. One thing that I've seen that the models got wrong is the sfc wind speeds in the ph's and E CO/W KS. They are brisk, at 20 and 25 kts plus gusts. There is still no moisture within 10,000 miles, and little to no return coming in from the Gulf yet, but I'm watching it.

I don't expect any naders anyway, just a little SDS relief. I am going nuts.

Bob