T.S. Karen

[Marc Austin]

Well, most of the models have been consistently calling for T.S. (near hurricane) Karen to move to the NNW and then NE out to sea, however, a couple of the most recent runs are showing Karen taking a NNW turn followed by a turn to the west, possibly taking aim on the U.S. East Coast. I know this is very far out, but I just wanted to know if anyone had any thoughts. It's such a large system I thought it was worth starting a thread over.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The latest NHC advsiory package-- 5 pm EDT-- now shows a noticeable bend to the left starting Day 4. Very, very interesting.

I'm having trouble picturing a Cape Verde hurricane hitting the USA in October-- but weirder, more anti-climo things have happened in the last few years.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

If you buy the Euro and the CMC - both paint a picutre of Karen hitting South Florida as a major Hurricane! (Take this with a large pinch of salt this far out)

 

[Ed Schoenborn]

Josh, I remember well when Hurricane Hazel, a cape verde hurricane made landfall and destroyed Long Beach, North Carolina on Oct. 15, 1954. My home in Raleigh was in her western eye wall although I did not know it for many decades later. A new cape verde hurricane hitting the eastern US would be no surprise. Ed

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Hey Ed!

I guess everyone's definition of "Cape Verde hurricane" is different-- because I never considered Hazel 1954 a Cape Verde hurricane. I consider a CV 'cane to be one that becomes an actual cyclone (tropical depression or greater) E of 40W and S of 20N. I know others have different definitions, and I'm not suggesting mine is necessarily the best. But Hazel's point of origin (at almost 60W) doesn't suggest a CV hurricane to me.

Nothing's impossible-- but climatologically, Cape Verde hurricanes hitting the USA in October are extremely rare-- so, it would still surprise me greatly to see it happen again. That doesn't mean I'm saying it won't happen-- just that it's extremely rare and goes against what one would expect based on climatology.

P.S. Here's Chris Landsea's take on Cape Verde hurricanes: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A2.html


He considers a CV 'cane to be one that forms within ~600 mi of those islands-- but, interestingly, he admits that there's no formal definition and that the term is essentially used subjectively:

Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.) Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October. The numbers range from none up to around five per year - with an average of around 2.​

 

[Josh Morgerman]

P.S. Here's one important-- but rare-- example of a Cape Verde 'cane hitting the USA in October. This one made landfall in SC with an intensity of ~955 mb/105 kt:

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

This is another one that is going to be "beheaded by the wind's shears"...

NHC is being un-realistically optimistic on bringing Karen through 72 hours of Westerly flow aloft, then a NW flow aloft - Even more destructive - For another 24 hours after that.

In 96 to 120 hours, the cyclone should be free of such hurdles.

Ofcourse, don't expect a depression / remnant low after that. Karen will be torn apart in 48 hours, and is already just above TS strength - Barely.

If a 'MIARALE' does occur, and Karen gets through all that - Then, yes FLORIDA - Be ready for "Jeanne number 2" ;-(

Dream-on ... It's 2007, NOT 2004-2005 ;-(

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I agree-- the picture looks somewhat grim for the cyclone this morning. But, man, if it survives the next few days, things will get very, very interesting...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Shear apart, the risk to any Florida / US landfall is going away rapidly with any North movement in track - and as you can see from todays Viz loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html Karen is moving DUE NORTH.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Yes Indeed!

The NHC is talking about a WNW motion but the storm's moving due north on the visible.

I thought I was drunk or something but I cannot understand why NHC is still saying WNW?

What's up with that?

Shear apart, the risk to any Florida / US landfall is going away rapidly with any North movement in track - and as you can see from todays Viz loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html Karen is moving DUE NORTH.

 

[Jim Leonard]

As far as hurricane chasing goes this year the only chance is the western Caribbean mostly between the 10th and 20th of October. After that the chances on average for a U.S. landfalling hurricane diminish quite rapidly. The way the hemispheric pattern is setup this season with frequent ridging in the eastern U.S. and western atlantic any storm that does develop in the western Caribbean would likely go to the west or northwest into central America or Mexico. Some years storms will develop in the western atlantic just off the Bahamas from a mid-latitude hybrid system. With the ridging this year over the western atlantic this would make one of these type of storm tracks quite interesting.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

As far as hurricane chasing goes this year the only chance is the western Caribbean mostly between the 10th and 20th of October. After that the chances on average for a U.S. landfalling hurricane diminish quite rapidly. The way the hemispheric pattern is setup this season with frequent ridging in the eastern U.S. and western atlantic any storm that does develop in the western Caribbean would likely go to the west or northwest into central America or Mexico. Some years storms will develop in the western atlantic just off the Bahamas from a mid-latitude hybrid system. With the ridging this year over the western atlantic this would make one of these type of storm tracks quite interesting.

Jim, when you mention October, why do you specifically mention the middle ten days of the month? What are your thoughts about 01-10 October?

I'm hopeful about getting some additional chase action this October in the Caribbean. There have been some huge (Cat-4) October landfalls on the Yucatan in recent years-- i.e., Iris 2001 in Belize and Wilma 2005 in Mexico.

Even today, there's a very large convective flare-up in the SW Caribbean.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I seems that we have trashed the TS karen thread - never mind - even so I am also also interested in JL's thoughts for the first 10 days of Oct -where should we be looking ??

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I seems that we have trashed the TS karen thread - never mind - even so I am also also interested in JL's thoughts for the first 10 days of Oct -where should we be looking ??

Sorry, Stuart. If you want, I can delete my off-topic posts and move them to a new thread.

P.S. I feel the discussion Re: Cape Verde hurricanes and analogue tracks is relevant to Karen.

 

[Jim Leonard]

Jim, when you mention October, why do you specifically mention the middle ten days of the month? What are your thoughts about 01-10 October?

I'm hopeful about getting some additional chase action this October in the Caribbean. There have been some huge (Cat-4) October landfalls on the Yucatan in recent years-- i.e., Iris 2001 in Belize and Wilma 2005 in Mexico.

Even today, there's a very large convective flare-up in the SW Caribbean.

Josh,
The middle weeks of October is the best period for Florida and the eastern GOM in an average season. Late September into early October we usually see the end of the C.V. or deep tropical atlantic type storms, the problem is like whats occuring these days with Karen they very rarely make across the atlantic because of strong westerly shear and recurving too early.. The next week to ten days is somewhat of a transition period between these breeding areas. Late October into early November you get more development toward the SW Caribbean. These storms tend to go west or rapidly NE and miss the U.S. You can get some real monsters in late October, like Hattie 1961, <920mb Mitch 1998 905MB and of course Wilma 882mb. Except for Wilma most of the monster late October prefer to strike central America.