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Storm of a Different Kind Inside NHC

Joined
Aug 16, 2005
Messages
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Location
Albany, New York
Lots of storminess inside NHC and the NWS. It sounds to me like heads are turning at NWS HQ and vice versa at NHC. Check out today's news headline below for details. A bunch of beaurocratic B.S. from HQ IMO...
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MIAMI - The director of the National Hurricane Center, who has been outspoken in warning about an aging satellite used for hurricane forecasting, was chastised Friday by a superior for his comments.

Bill Proenza has been talking about the QuikScat satellite since taking office in January. The satellite was launched in 1999 and designed to last two to three years but is now showing signs of its age. Certain hurricane forecasts could be up to 16 percent less accurate if it fails, Proenza has said. That could lead to wider areas placed under hurricane watches and warnings. A satellite with technology meant to replace QuikScat would not fly until 2016, seven years later than planned, The Associated Press reported this week.

On Friday, Proenza was given a 3-page letter from the acting head of the Weather Service, Mary Glackin. Proenza's recent statements "may have caused some unnecessary confusion about NOAA's ability to accurately predict tropical storms," Glackin wrote.

Glackin, who visited Proenza's office at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said that talking with other weather service managers would have given Proenza "accurate factual data."
Proenza said Friday that he did not believe that his comments caused confusion and that he had properly talked with his superiors. The letter is an attempt to quiet his comments on the satellite, he said. He said another superior had previously warned him to stop making comments about QuikScat.
"I'm not going to do anything different," he said after getting the letter.
Proenza shared the letter with his staff, which led to its public release. The letter also included reprimands for two more procedural items, including allegedly improperly authorizing promotions.
Glackin was named acting head of the weather service in May after its previous director announced his retirement. She said in a telephone interview that the letter was less about what happened in the past than about her expectations going forward.
 
quikscat is kindof worthless though. Would you rather spend those 100s of millions on a new innacurate satellite, or a couple more recon planes that are far more accurate?
 
QuickSCAT is not even REMOTELY close to "kind of" worthless. I'm not sure who sold you on that information - but recon planes don't have NEARLY the coverage area that the satellite does.
 
Recon may not have the coverage area but they are so much more precise. Quikscat values are often contaminated and their resolution is poor. They have trouble with higher end values inside stronger storms. Quikscat's low altitude means it can only see a small part of the earth. A given spot may go a very long time, up to about a day, before the next reading is taken. Recon will also have gaps, but as signficant threats approach the US recon will fly almost continuously.


Also from what I am aware this wind data is not incorporated into any models, at least recon returns temp and dewpoint and heights etc that are incorporated into some models, especially the wrf hurricane run that is supposed to be the heir to the gfdl.

You will see a lot of hurricane discussions with "we will make the following call once recon gets there..."


I would disagree with "quikscat is essential". Recon is essential. Quikscat is a nice bonus.
 
Nobody is saying recon is bad - but recon isn't everything. Nobody wants to eliminate recon for the satellite, they are just saying don't eliminate the satellite.
 
I would disagree with "quikscat is essential". Recon is essential. Quikscat is a nice bonus.

Really? I bet if you said that to some of the NHC specialists they'd be shocked at what you say. Certainly the maritime WFOs depend on Quickscat. Most hurricane tropical cyclone forecasters don't have the benefit of Recon. Ask JTWC forecasters if it's just a nice bonus. As Proenza said, 16% improvement is not exaggerating. And we're not just talking about hurricane forecasts that benefit. The entire maritime industry benefits, day to day forecasts benefit.

Most of the errors you talk about pale in comparison to the negative consequences of not having Quickscat. If you know how to use the data, you get the most benefit from it. To me, Quickscat is a killer tool. Otherwise, try to analyze oceanic winds with a station coverage of 1/100,000 km**2. I've done that and I know how much I miss.
 
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