The NWS refuses to provide an app, so the public very rarely gets that forecast anymore. They'll get TWC or AW if they use their phone. In 2025 if those providers are offering Tornado Warnings that are higher quality than the NWS, why wouldn't the public want to use that source? That's where the confusion could come in because I doubt TWC and AW would coordinate on a warning issuance
I wouldn't say they refuse to do so, and it goes well beyond $$$ and effort. Again, contrary to this article and what some believe, the NWS and private sector do mostly stay in their lane. That's why you won't see the NWS providing direct support to stadiums, railroads, airports, etc., nor do you currently see the private sector issuing warnings to the general public. If the NWS produced an app, it would have to be free (people already pay taxes for it), which would undermine the private sector, and would ideally use location-based services, which for the purposes of weather forecasting, are copyrighted by a private sector company (I think). Regarding the warning comment, that is exactly why it should be left to one source, and I believe those in power see it that way too. Private companies can and do issue custom warnings to paid users, which are going to be other private businesses, airports, etc. That's perfectly fine, because while they're doing that, the NWS is providing information for the general public and various gov. officials. Which leads to my next point...
So when the NWS is issuing a SVR for a storm, TWC is issuing a TOR, and AW says it's just heavy rain - that could be confusing. Waiting until it happens - which seems to be the current plan - seems to be setting things up for a rough ride...
Yes, it would be confusing. However, the NWS has been building relationships with what they call core partners (EMs, public safety officials, etc.) through regular communication, both in person and remotely. This is done to understand what information these partners need in certain situations, which is the backbone to the NWS's Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS). This is a huge program within the NWS, and has received great positive feedback from those core partners who use it. Based on what I've seen and heard, I don't see them "jumping ship", nor do I see them looking at multiple sources at once, even if there were to even be another source of public accessible warnings, watches, etc. any time soon.
Maybe I'm overly optimistic about the future, but I have a hard time believing that in 2029 there has to be a human in the mix for the daily forecast... let alone warnings...
As someone who has designed and built a machine learning-based product for use by forecasters, I would not be comfortable getting all of my information, especially warnings, from raw machine output 100% of the time with absolutely no oversight. If that's where my 75 degrees and blue sky forecast comes from, fine. But if there's a tornadic QLCS heading for my neighborhood, I don't want an algorithm to tell me if I should seek shelter or not. That very well may just be me, and I'm fine with that. We are nowhere near being able to rely on complete automation to warn, whether severe or tornado, on a storm. The research community is still trying to determine the exact mechanism(s) behind tornadogenesis, and why some storms produce tornadoes while others don't. AI isn't going to figure that out overnight, because it's only going to be trained upon the data we give it. If we don't have the proper data, then it's not going to have a perfect or near perfect hit/miss rate. Decades in the future, maybe. 2029? Unlikely. And if I'm wrong, then I will gladly come back to this post to admit it
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