Spring Flooding - Here We Go Again!

[John Hudson]

Today the Manitoba Government unveiled its flood forecast for spring this year, and while there are more than a few unknown variables that enter the mix, such as speed of spring melting and snowfall accumulations in the interim, the outlook is already grim.

Within the city, the Red River is currently six feet above normal levels for this time of the year. In 2010, we received more precipitation to date than in 1997, just before the Flood of the Century.

We have since had the floodway significantly expanded to protect the city, but with all else being equal I believe regions south of Winnipeg and extending far into North Dakota will indeed be under serious threat to an extended and damaging flood this spring. In fact, if I lived in Fargo or Grand Forks, I would be starting to look at relocating any treasured household possessions.

My brother in Minneapolis tells me he has never seen so much snow in the Twin Cities as he has this season.


John
VE4 JTH

 

[Derek Heide]

This has been a very active winter for southern Manitoba. Not much in the way of major winter storms but a constant snowy pattern. I remember we had an active stretch in late November and early December. It quieted down for awhile but, since the end of 2010, we've seen numerous Clipper type systems. Not much accumulation with each event but, over a 3 week span, it adds up.

I'm interested in seeing how similar this matches up to 2009. That was a snowy and cold winter followed by one of the coldest springs and summers in a long time. The flooding is obviously a big concern but are you also worried about a hectic thunderstorm season? If that blocking dissipates, a moderate La Nina would tend to develop a strong ridge to our south where it's been very dry this winter. With the extremely high soil moisture content up here, there would be plenty of moisture to work with come summer in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Manitoba.

Your thoughts?

 

[John Hudson]

I'm interested in seeing how similar this matches up to 2009. That was a snowy and cold winter followed by one of the coldest springs and summers in a long time. The flooding is obviously a big concern but are you also worried about a hectic thunderstorm season? If that blocking dissipates, a moderate La Nina would tend to develop a strong ridge to our south where it's been very dry this winter. With the extremely high soil moisture content up here, there would be plenty of moisture to work with come summer in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Manitoba.

Your thoughts?

Hi Derek:

I never worry about an active thunderstorm season, but always wish for it! Currently, flood forecasters are not ruling out an event similar in scale to 1997, since all the ingredients are there. Spring flood forecasting is not an easy venture though, and educated guesses at best.

As others here have already mentioned, there are a few factors pointing to the possibility of an active storm season across the Northern Plains, making for some great chase days in late May and throughout June.

Only time will tell.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Derek Heide]

Hi Derek:

I never worry about an active thunderstorm season, but always wish for it! Currently, flood forecasters are not ruling out an event similar in scale to 1997, since all the ingredients are there. Spring flood forecasting is not an easy venture though, and educated guesses at best.

As others here have already mentioned, there are a few factors pointing to the possibility of an active storm season across the Northern Plains, making for some great chase days in late May and throughout June.

Only time will tell.

John
VE4 JTH

I don't really worry either when it comes to thunderstorms. The more the merrier if you ask me. It's been rather quiet since 2007. I think we're due for an active year similar to 2005 or 2007.

What are your thoughts on flood outlooks being issued as early as January? I've heard mixed reviews about it. Some say it's way too early to be issuing one and that the weather pattern could change quickly.

I think this is a bit of a different scenario with the high soil moisture content. Also, the fact we had more precip last year compared to 1997 is enough to sound off the alarm bells.