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SPC Mesoanalysis Update

I really dig this new format. They made it much easier to see the changes. One thing I would change would be the RUC forecast hours. I would make them 0, +1, +2, and +3 just for the mere seeing 6 hours in advance is a little beyond what I think the meso analysis page is designed for. Other than that it is a fantastic upgrade.
 
I like the new additions to the page a lot, especially the new forecast trends area which provides immediate mouse-over access to forecast data/obs for several hours before and after the current image. I have a question, though, about those images... I always was told that the data you see on the mesoanalysis page is simply taken from the latest RUC run, that it's model data and not real current conditions/observations, with the exception of course for things like radar/satellite. Now, however, using the trends capability, you can see a difference between the image for the hour zero obs (the yellow -0 button) and the forecast hour zero data (blue +0 button). At first this made sense because we always knew the RUC mesoanalysis stuff wasn't necessarily representative of the actual conditions on the ground... But the current mesoanalysis image seems to be the same as the yellow -0 hour obs image and not the forecast +0 hour image... So obviously either things have changed, or (more likely) I have it wrong. Could somebody explain exactly what the difference is between the regular current data - what you first see on the page, which also seems to match the -0 hour trends image - and the +0 hour trends image, which is ostensibly the RUC forecast for hour 0. Why is there a difference? Does this mean that the regular image is now coming from actual observed conditions, which would be nice but I highly doubt, or is it all just different kinds of RUC data... Obviously I'm not really understanding the new trends zero hour stuff. Could someone explain it better? Thanks.
 
I like it so far, but I don't understand the 2, 4 ,6 RUC forecast hours. I'd like to see the 1 hour forecast the most!

By the way, the SREF got an update too recently.
 
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They're probably trying to save compute cycles and bandwidth with the two hour increments. The mouseover feature on the webpage makes it easy to flip between the plots and get a feel for the trend though. You can pretty easily interpolate in your head what's going on between 0 and +2 to get your hour forecast. This is going to be killer on the chase while awaiting initiation. I can't wait to put it to use.
 
Been using it and really like how all the information is compiled on one page. The only set back I'm finding is that the VIS sat usually displays an error code - every once in a while it'll come up, but frequently not. No big though -- still a great resource regardless.
 
Probably I just haven't yet learned how to use it properly, but it's a little bit frustrating. On some of the parameters, it seems like you have to hold your mouse over one of the + or - pads to get any data at all. On others, that's not necessary but there's really no indication of what time frame you are getting. So, I just get the feeling I'm looking at apples and oranges as far as timing goes. I've always been skeptical of the upper air charts on the mesoanalysis because upper air soundings are normally only taken every 12 hours, so how accurate really is an RUC forecast 9 hours from the last sounding? I understand there are data sources like aircraft measurements, but to what extent is this data really incorporated into the RUC? I guess I'm a skeptic, but I've learned there's a danger in taking the SPC mesoanalysis graphics too literally.
 
Aircraft soundings and satellite soundings are incorporated into the RUC, plus some soundings go every 6 hours, so it's fairly accurate. The time frame should be the same for all maps, and I haven't seen a +/- thing so not sure what you have going on there.

If you don't click on anything, it defaults to the -0 (analysis). If you click the +0 / 2 / 4 / 6 you are getting the RUC forecast.
 
rdale said:
Aircraft soundings and satellite soundings are incorporated into the RUC, plus some soundings go every 6 hours, so it's fairly accurate. The time frame should be the same for all maps, and I haven't seen a +/- thing so not sure what you have going on there.

If you don't click on anything, it defaults to the -0 (analysis). If you click the +0 / 2 / 4 / 6 you are getting the RUC forecast.
Click to expand...

The +/- referred to are the signs in front of the 7 options displayed under the "Trends/Forecast" panel on the upper-right side. The RUC forecasts (+ side) are often greyed out, depending on the specific parameter selected. Several times, I've noticed the "default" is no data at all and you must continuously hold your cursor over one of the 7 options to get data.

Also, I agree with a previous poster in that I'm confused as to the difference between the -0 and +0. I thought all of the data was based on the RUC anyway, so why would there be a difference between the -0 and +0? Again, probably just a learning curve issue on my part!
 
I've seen the + side grayed out, but it still shows me -0 by default. And if I check later the + is back alive.

-0 is analysis, +0 is 0 hour forecast.
 
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