Dan Robinson
EF5
The SPC will now issue Day 3 convective outlooks twice per day, at 0730z and now at 1930z:
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SPC Day 3 outlooks to be issued twice daily
- Thread starter Dan Robinson
- Start date
William Monfredo
EF4
Sounds good, seemed due, & could be helpful at times. The old schedule seemed "long in the tooth."
JamesCaruso
Staff member
This will be of particular value for chasers like me, who live outside of the Plains. It will help drive decisions about heading out for those larger, one-off events outside of my core chase vacation (although that concept seems to be nothing but a fantasy for me, because when such opportunities arise it always seems I have too many professional and/or personal commitments to break away from the inertia of real life). It will also help with timing the start or end of a chase vacation.
When chasing, I always do my own Day 1 analysis before reading SPC. This fosters better learning, and avoids potential anchoring bias - i.e., seeing something in SPC, focusing your analysis only on that, and missing other opportunities or important variables. (As I was told by the tour guide that I started with 28 years ago, SPC does not write for chasers!) To be efficient with time and allow a maximum focus on Day 1, I usually rely more on SPC for a sense of Day 2. Unless Day 1 is a down day, in which case I treat Day 2 like Day 1 and do my own analysis first. I don’t rely on Day 3 all that much, unless we are in a down period and I’m looking ahead to the next opportunity. But yeah for one-off events, and timing the start/end of chase vacations, this will be good.
Hopefully the next enhancement is inclusion of tornado, hail and wind risks in Day 3, like in Days 1 and 2!
When chasing, I always do my own Day 1 analysis before reading SPC. This fosters better learning, and avoids potential anchoring bias - i.e., seeing something in SPC, focusing your analysis only on that, and missing other opportunities or important variables. (As I was told by the tour guide that I started with 28 years ago, SPC does not write for chasers!) To be efficient with time and allow a maximum focus on Day 1, I usually rely more on SPC for a sense of Day 2. Unless Day 1 is a down day, in which case I treat Day 2 like Day 1 and do my own analysis first. I don’t rely on Day 3 all that much, unless we are in a down period and I’m looking ahead to the next opportunity. But yeah for one-off events, and timing the start/end of chase vacations, this will be good.
Hopefully the next enhancement is inclusion of tornado, hail and wind risks in Day 3, like in Days 1 and 2!
