SPC comments

[Jim Zandonai]

Anyone see Accuweathers' Henry Margusity blog regarding the SPC ?
I pasted it here rather then the link because of quick reference..
I just want to see what others here think of or agree with his comments..

Personally I have always had the highest regard for the SPC. Over all they do a fantastic job when it comes to severe weather forecasting and Meso discussions..It does seem lately however a bit of conservative thinking or in the case of of Monday here in N IL and SE WI and apparently in the south today the risks are not getting either in the areas or upgraded until the event is practically in motion. Now I am the last person that is going to criticize the SPC but his observations seem valid to a point.
Is it that perhaps the condtions or parameters are changing so rapidly lately that perhaps the SPC or anyone for that matter cant possibly know until it just falls into place at last 'hour' ?
My thinking is that perhaps either some things maybe arent being seen or more likely just condtions for a risk area being moved northward or for a slight risk to be upgraded to moderate risk conditions are falling into place at the last 'hour' that didnt exist earlier to warrant the eventual outcome.. I dont know whats worse being more conservative at first then have to ramp up..or stick your neck out and then nothing happens to a large extent and then the public really doesnt take it serious when the next mod risk is issued and then someone gets blown off the map..
My final thought is I dont think SPC really 'dropped the ball' but of course no it wasnt a perfect forecast for the events this week long-term wise..but it shows forecasting is always tough even for those guys.
I still say SPC gets a thumbs up over all IMHO. They do the best they can.

Here's the Blog ....


"I want to make a point about SPC (Storm Prediction Center) and my rant on the video the other day. I was upset because we are in an extreme weather situation where tornadoes can occur and come during the day when schools are in session. The areas hit by tornadoes the last several days are often in slight risk areas during the course of the year and, from a public perspective, it becomes just another day. However, when a moderate or high risk is issued, it prompts additional statements from the local NWS offices about the added risk of severe weather. Based on those statements, local officials can make decisions that can save lives, like perhaps closing schools or changing bus routes or having tornado drills. Even today, when it was clear that a tornado outbreak was going to occur, they waited until the storms were underway before issuing a moderate risk of severe weather. These are the folks that have the sole responsibility of issuing forecasts for the risk of severe weather then coordinating the risk through the local offices in the United States. I am not hindcasting, but point out that the last several days have been days where attention should have been given to the possibility of extreme weather, and I feel the meteorologists at SPC dropped the ball on the outbreaks not once, but three times. End of rant.."

 

[Jesse Risley]

I think nature will always take it's own course. Weather has a tendency to not always follow lines drawn on a map. If I recall correctly, a similar question was posed at one of the severe weather workshops at the COD a year or so ago. The person answering the question reiterated that it's often easier to upgrade an area if the severe weather threat becomes more pronounced, but it can be more difficult to back down from a much higher threat level if you've already predicted "doomsday" and everything falls apart.

Wasn't Accuweather raising a stink several years ago because the NWS was being too efficient in its decimation of taxpayer-supported weather products, supposedly hampering the ability of weather forecasting firms in the private sector to adequately compete?

 

[Jon Person]

...predicted "doomsday" and everything falls apart...

...sometimes referred to as a "High Risk". Sorry

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Let's see, it's January 10th, so far this year we have seen two Moderate risks and two PDS watches, does it really matter if they were issued shortly before the events began? Its not like the general public looks at the SPC page 2-3 days prior to the event to get a forecast, and once the slight risk is out there if other forecasters can't look into things enough to determine the risk themselves then whats their use? I think the bigger issue is more the fact that these "critics" seem to use the word outbreak a little to liberally.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Accuweather - a would be competitor that would like to have the whole ball of wax and pushes for legislation...yeah that's an unbiased critic. Let me just say ah, ah, ka..bull chit! (fake sneezes) Excuse me.

It's so easy to Monday morning quarterback these things and have 20/20 hindsight. I'm sure the guy is a genius. Surely he would have executed perfectly and not a hair would be lost.

 

[Damon Poole]

Bill Tabor just hit the nail on the head! My sentiments exactly! Tell it like it is! Accu Weather is an oxymoron! Both my thumbs up, and hat tipped to the SPC and the local WFO's that always do a superb job in getting the word out.

 

[Bob Hartig]

The folks at SPC are there because they're the best, and some of them are storm chasing legends. But even the best can only forecast the weather; they can't make the weather obey their forecast. I mean, it's weather, for crying out loud. It's slippery, squishy stuff that doesn't stay put, a lot like Jello-O. And the SPC is highly skilled at nailing Jell-O to the wall.

I'll admit that, green as I am at forecasting, I was puzzled by the discrepancy between some of the models and the SWODY1 runs this last Monday. But I'd far rather glean from the knowledge of the folks at the SPC, which they make available freely, than have to pay some private firm for a product that is NOT going to be any better, just more expensive.

 

[Chad Cowan]

I enjoy watching Henry's vlog (did I really just use that word?) because he is very adamant about what he does and can get pretty animated at times. He is also a very talented meteorologist and forecaster. It is not unusual for him to criticize the SPC, in fact, if he had a catchphrase it would probably be "SPC is out to lunch again!"

Let's see, it's January 10th, so far this year we have seen two Moderate risks and two PDS watches, does it really matter if they were issued shortly before the events began?

Today has been the only MDT risk of '08. Monday was upgraded to 10% hatched Tor probs (SLGT) on the 01z SWODY1 after the outbreak was well underway.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Accuweather, pay us for NWS forecasts made to look pretty after you pay us the fee we want.

ok a few things

The local NWS offices have meteorologist as well right? last time i checked they arent mindless idiots taking orders from the all mighty and powerful SPC. They are going to issure warning/ severe weather statements ect as they see fit. They are going to issure warnings wether there is no risk of svr weather or there is a high risk. take for example a early Sunday morning last month, there was no risk of severe weather however a line of storms that produced winds between 65-80mph blew threw parts of Chicago, the NWS in Chicago did what they are paid to do and issued the warnings.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/071222/index.html

Changing bus routes? is he really serious? change routes for a storm that may not even hit let alone be tornadic. i know we have had a thread about schools so i wont rehash that.

the area's hit are often in moderate risk areas as well and they become just another day along with the slight risk. In the Chicago area we had the August 23rd moderate risk which produced a ton of damage and then again on Oct 18 when the media pounded it like a beating drum and nothing happened for the most part.

from what ive seen the SPC has done their job by issuing Tornado watches

before the tornadoes hit SW Missouri and Northern Illinois on Monday and today over the south. People dont pay attention to the SPC day one outlooks, this has how its always been and probably how it will always be. if weather was such an exact science there would never ever be a bust. May 3 1999 wasant obvious either, the day started off under a slight risk

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS

 

[Jim Zandonai]

I guess over all the point that does matter is in most recent events like said before I think as long as A Tornado watch is issued by SPC before and the local WFO issue a Tornado warning before the tornado strikes ..you cant really do that much better..When I see a slght risk I expect something to happen anyway..mod risk puts you on perhaps a more elevated state..in either case Tornado or Severe T storm watches are put out..doesnt matter what the'risk outlook' is then at that point.
True the general public really doesnt see SPC outlooks..but think as long as a Tornado watch does get issued before hand or a Severe Tstorm Watch you cant ask for much more..The local WFO would issue warnings even if a watch wasnt issues as said by another poster here.
Yeah Accuweather is a profit driven org. as we know and they have some good people and I enjoy there site but I dont think they are any better then the NWS/SPC at forecasting but its always easy to be critical of the otherside..
Personally I have always been a big supporter of the NWS. Nothing is perfect in weather but I dont think Accuweather would any better if they were at the front line..

 

[Adam Lucio]

I always tell people that the models and all the tools we use just give HINTS. You can make the perfect forecast 12hrs before an event, but something can happen in the atmosphere in the last hour that can totaly change things and your perfect forecast means diddly. If things werent subject to such last minute change than we wouldnt need the RUC and local NWS offices wouldnt launch additional balloons on days where severe weather seems more likely.

Kevin Bowman made a good point by posting the definition of the tornado watch. The LIVE conditions are what matters most.

Now if SPC and NWS [sounds like a bad rap lyric] start telling me theres going to be calm, fair weather and we get an outbreak of severe weather, I might criticize

 

[mikedeason]

What needs to be kept in perspective here is that while the SPC does still issue categorical outlooks according to perceived threat, the categories are based on probabilistic forecasts of an event happening within 25 miles of a given location according to the forecasters confidence. So, a slight risk is going to convey a probability of 5%-10% when it comes to tornadoes which is, IMO, a pretty decent degree of confidence with an atypical scenario that occured several days ago.

The fact of the matter is that Accuweather (and a few other folks) have a chip on their shoulder about not being able to bring you a tornado warning by the makers of Product X.

For me, the NWS is one government agency that actually gives me a bang for my tax buck and I hate to think how chaotic things would be without a centralized watch and warning service. Sure, they're human and prone to not get it right every time. But it's also easy for every hotshot Monday morning quarterback to look at things postmortem and talk up about how they would have done better.

I'd challenge companies like Accuweather to make all their past severe weather forecasts available for comparative verification against the SPC. I'm sure there's a few companies that would do just as well, or maybe even better in some cases, than the SPC. But I'm sure there would be some that would not do as well.

And, of course, in the end it boils down to one thing. If Accuweather muffs a forecast, they only have corporate sponsors to answer to. If SPC muffs a forecast, they have to answer to the taxpayers.

 

[David Schuttler]

I would hate to live in a town, that the local weather guy/gal forecasted only by what was given out by SPC.......

 

[Shane Adams]

This is only to those who have (or have had) issues with the SPC's performance...

Like I've always said, to the complainers: have a sitdown in the hotseat during the action and let's see how well you do. As you all know I've been a huge defender of the SPC for its entire existence. People don't always react the same way to certain situations, and there's more than a few folks who work at the SPC. Perhaps the actual events that unfolded did surpass the limits of a "Slight Risk" this week, but it's not like they ignored the situation and issued nothing. How many of you would issue a moderate risk in early January with clouds, 500j/kg and largely unidirectional flow, including SSW surface winds? How many of you have raked SPC over the coals for "blowing a High Risk" forecast? Now you want to throw stones at the opposite end of the spectrum?

Let me ask you this...have you ever had a really bad day at work, to where you just wanna pull your hair out, and the only salvation is getting off shift, and driving home, and relaxing and forgetting all about it? Now imagine when you get home, you have to sit and read all about it from strangers who know nothing of the details that are involved, the tiny bits of importance that no one outside those walls can possibly understand? Would you want to deal with that?

Oh sure, they're government employees, but they're still people, who are doing a job that most wouldn't want and if they did, aren't qualified for. That's why the majority sit back in the comfort of the hindsight section of the Peanut Gallery, munching nuts and throwing shells on the floor and tossing criticism (excuse the crappy metaphor).

I will admit that myself, this week, at one point wondered "why have they stayed "slight" today? But as quickly as that thought was verbalized, it was discarded, as I figured they know something or have a feeling about something I don't or couldn't understand. The US Government (aside from blowing s#$t up) isn't easily-parted with its (our) money...so the fact they're paying these people at SPC holds more than a bit of water. I know it's easy to be reactionary (trust me, I KNOW) but remember they're still people like you and me.

In closing, I'll offer a public challenge to all who disagree with my post: From this moment on, don't use SPC. Don't access their webpage, outlooks, mesoanalysis, watch/warnings, anything. If they're flawed enough to lash out at whenever they aren't perfect, they're flawed enough to not be essential to chasers.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The guy acts like SPC has sole responsibility for forecasting severe weather. What about all the local NWS offices and the local TV mets? That is how the vast majority of the public gets their warning. Of course the mets at the local level use SPC for guidance, but they can think for themselves and don't have to follow SPC't thinking word for word. The Accuweather guy has nothing to stand on IMO. What was his forecast before the "outbreak"? Even if he got it right this time, I'm sure he gets it wrong just as frequently as any other forecaster out there. The guy ought to shut his pie hole IMO.