Sorry TX... MN has you beat for tornadoes this year.

Rob H

Rob H

EF5
Joined
Mar 11, 2009
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825
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Twin Cities, MN
http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2010/08/minnesota_torna.php

It isn't even close. Minnesota isn't the land of 10,00 lakes anymore, it's tornado alley. According to NOAA, 122 twisters have been reported here so far this year. The nearest competitor? Texas, with 87. Ha! Take that you cowboys.
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Previous record is 71 for MN, I believe - and it looks like we could possibly up that count some more this week. TX could get some from hurricanes, but it's got quite a deficit to overcome. I'm not saying "hey look, it's global warming!" but it does seem a little odd that MN is so far ahead of the pack this year. Any theories for this?
 
It's amazing how a different state not known for tornadoes seems to set a new record every year. I'd say it's a simple matter of so many chasers being out there to see what was likely there all along.
 
I'd say El Nino provided the warmer atmosphere. But Shane might be right there hasn't been a stone unturned as far as documented storms this year.

Edit:
Here's an interesting article Minnesota farming
 
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My theory is more people out chasing and that leads to more tornadoes seen and more tornadoes reported.

March and April were very quite. There went part of Texas tornado season. So Texas was not as active this year. When Summer comes the jet stream moves north and the storms follow. This time of year Minnesota can get tornado outbreaks being farther north and the severe weather season has lasted longer then it normaly does. So Minnesota is having a more active year. This won't be the last year Minnesota has over 100 tornadoes and I doubt it was the first. This is just the first in recorded history. Long ago when the tall praire grass was every where there was a very warm period for about 5000 years. Minnesota was probably Texas back then. Then came a cooling period that favored trees which we are in now. I think Minnesota could have easily seen over 100 tornadoes in a year before recorded history.

This is just Earth and mother nature going through a natural life cycle.
 
Each year within the "alley", you have hot zones. They just move every year. Next season it could be in KS. I don't think it's dramatic that MN is above there count this year, now if this happens each year for the next 30, then I will call it the new TX for tor counts.

That's my theory.
 
Skip Talbot said:
48 of those reports are from June 17 alone. It only takes out big event to skew the numbers.
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Didn't they settle on 39 for that day after the damage surveys and whatnot? I'm not sure if the 122 is confirmed tornadoes + recent reports, or just straight reports. Even if you take out 48, you still have 72 for the year - which beats the previous record and is only 15 away from then second-place TX, with some active weather patterns still in play for MN.
 
Shane Adams said:
It's amazing how a different state not known for tornadoes seems to set a new record every year. I'd say it's a simple matter of so many chasers being out there to see what was likely there all along.
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There's no doubt that this, along with more spotters and more attention generally, explains why the national tornado count has gone up quite a bit in the last decade or two. But I don't think it explains the relative shift among states - chasers, spotters, and locals with video cameras are everywhere.
 
Those report numbers are preliminary and not final. I think they are taken directly from the SPC reports database, which is not necessarily what appears in Storm Data. These numbers can be vastly different. Just looking at the tornado numbers from 4/22/10, I'd put a good wager down that many of those are duplicate reports of the same tornado.
 
When you see the photographs of literally hundred(s) of chasers lined up and down a highway for as far as you can see, no wonder tornado numbers are up. Every spin up from every flanking line gets added to the total. Obviously the areas that have the highest concentration of chasers are going to have elevated reports. A good example of inflated reports is June of 2009. I observed four weak tornadoes in Hardin and Grundy counties in Iowa. There were quite a few chasers/spotters on that storm and some were reporting as many as eight tornadoes. I don't know what they were looking at for sure but there was no way there were eight separate tornadoes from that storm. The Parkersburg tornado in May of 2008 had at least three small tornadoes (my observation) quickly develop and rotate around the wedge and disappear. I don't think the three were counted as separate tornadoes. It is also possible that some local NWS do a better job than others when documenting actual tornado numbers after an event.
 
Chad Berryhill said:
Each year within the "alley", you have hot zones. They just move every year. Next season it could be in KS. I don't think it's dramatic that MN is above there count this year, now if this happens each year for the next 30, then I will call it the new TX for tor counts.

That's my theory.
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No! No! No! Not KS. Say Michigan! Michigan! :D
 
Skip Talbot said:
48 of those reports are from June 17 alone. It only takes out big event to skew the numbers.
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Another 13 reports came from June 25th. June 26th also had 13 reported tornadoes. 6 tornadoes were reported on July 14th. 8 tornadoes on July 17th.

So if you add up the reported tornadoes for those 5 days you have 89 of the reported tornadoes. There was another day with 5 reported tornadoes and another with 4 reported tornadoes. That would make 98 of the reported tornadoes. If you look at the Severe Thunderstorm Event Database most days in Minnesota were not very active for the months of May, June and July with only six days having more than 4 tornado reports that I could find.

So if you think about it Minnesota is only doing so good in tornado count because of 6 days spread out in the months of June and July. I would think there would be fewer confirmed tornadoes then reports.
 
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