Some viral weather forecasts are fake news - Two reasons they must be stopped

Jeff Duda

Jeff Duda

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshal...easons-they-must-be-stopped-now/#34db17765197

Good coverage of the meteorological aspect of the "fake news" phenomenon that has cropped up in recent months. Anyone who has been following the science and the social media aspect over the last several years is probably already pretty familiar with this. Former AMS president Marshall Shepherd offers an informative and well-discussed take on the issue, and also provides links to other great blog posts about it. A helpful guide was also posted by the NWS a few days ago about how to deal with posts of extreme weather forecasts that may be fake:

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I'm rather amazed at how long it took an official body of Government and other resources to come to their senses. Fake or otherwise hyped forecasts (and other bogus meteorological practices) have been a major part of social media publicity for years. Individuals have made a fortune by hype and fear mongering. I don't need to tell anyone that I (and a handful of individuals) have been trying to draw attention to this for years. I have archives full of screen grab examples where social media forecasts, spotting observations and/or operations were intentionally falsified to scare people or gain some type of public favor in return -- e.g., page likes, commercial benefits or publicity.

No offense, but shame on NWS Norman and others to finally realize this is a problem when they were well aware of it years ago as it occurred right in their own back yard -- but like a lot of people and organizations, they decided to go with the flow of what was incorrectly perceived as genuine and popular at the time -- despite the deafening roar of warning bells -- some coming from well-established meteorologists in the area. Too late now. There is a whole new crop of social media offenders who witnessed the success (and immunity -- at least for awhile) of false behavior and now they want to cash in.

Good luck putting the genie back in the bottle.

I can't wait till spring!
 
Warren - the NWS started this at least two years ago. No shame in not knowing - don't shame them though because you weren't aware :)

The issue is this... Social media offenses were NEVER able to be stopped. A new study just published shows that during two major snowstorms, only 10% of people got their forecast from weather.gov Most used local TV, social media, and apps to get their forecasts. Dr Shepherd's article is neat, but wrong. There's no way to stop it. It simply is not legal. And the claims that these "fakecasts" cause life safety issues are bogus too - show me an instance where KMart's 180hr hurricane map or a Facebook blizzard killed someone?!?

In the end - many professional TV meteorologists with AMS Seals are doing the exact same thing - putting out a 5 day ECMWF ice storm map. Adding "But this isn't my forecast" doesn't make it right.
 
Thanks for pointing out the dates, I am aware of this and my intention is not to blame the NWS but to point out the root of these issues goes back many years. Nor is this just about winter weather. The issues include spring thunderstorms and hurricanes. More and more, people are relying on private social media information to make life and death decisions -- as opposed to NWS warnings or well-established and trusted media outlets like many in the OKC area. My point is that a lot of people turned a blind eye when previous, gross offenses including misleading forecasts and exaggerated storm reports were being issued by specific people and commercial entities on social media -- and now it's out of control -- just like fake news. Myself and others once predicted that the lack of complaint and intervention would clear the path for others to emulate the same crap -- and they have -- not only in social media, but in other aspects of severe weather and chasing. I understand why people want to ignore reality, but it's difficult to rewrite history when it's forever preserved in electronic media.
 
I've thought it would be helpful to start archiving screen captures of the hypecasts, then make a big infographic with those right next to post-event maps of what actually happened. Better yet, a 3-column graphic with the hypecast, the official NWS forecast and the actual result.

I am going to try to start doing this if I can find the time.
 
Dan, that is a great idea and a really big step in the right direction. The only problem I foresee is the beating you might take when you point out specific people who are generally immune from attack and well protected by the chase community -- or spared by outright censorship. I'm not sure you want (or deserve) to take that punishment. I've been archiving such data for a new book and other purposes for years and I'll say the information is stunning when you look at some of the records and the actions people took based on false information.
 
I feel your pain Warren - but you keep mentioning "prevent" as if there is something that could have been done xx years ago to stop it. That's simply not realistic. Nor is it today.

If you read comments for those who follow the hypecasters, they could care less about verification. I applaud your efforts Dan, but I have absolutely no doubt they'll be a waste of time and energy. It's like trying to tell a InfoWars.com reader that FEMA doesn't have secret concentration camps. Heck - mention the Farmers Almanac as a joke and you'll get drilled.
 
Remember - it's the Oklahoma TV market that really is responsible for starting it. I'm not sure if you're familiar with any of those TV outlets, but they LIVE on hype and fakecasts (predicting EF scales in advance, judging a tornado windspeed based on radar reflectivity, giving 10 day tornado forecasts, etc.) And these are degreed meteorologists. And they did it LONG before social mediarologists took the helm.
 
Here is one example from January 7 in Georgia. It's worth noting that in this case, the hypecast was posted by an individual on his personal FB feed rather than one of those weather pages. It went viral just the same, though.

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NWS is between a rock and a hard place on this subject. My local NWS WFO spends a lot of time and effort trying to work with local broadcast media. The WCM points out that they are all important members of the integrated warning team (IWT) and it is important that they work together and not against each other. He will also say that in storm survey after storm survey, the victims who report having gotten warning almost always say it was from broadcast media or a friend/family member (via phone or social media). Almost no member of the general public says they got warning from the NWS directly (although the NWS warning is often what media or a friend/family told them about). This means NWS has to have a good working relationship with their IWT media partners. It is very hard to do that if they call them out in public. A good WCM meets often with the media partners and delivers criticism in private.

I suspect the WCM job in my area is getting harder. We have one station who has invested a ton of money in new radars and who's marketing department seems to have taken over the weather department. Just a few days ago another station was hyping a major winter storm this coming weekend. To it's credit our NWS office did an info graphic saying don't believe all the hype and explained their forecast without calling out any local media directly and posted on the web and sent it to EMs and spotters.. The same station that did the hype had it's chief meteorologist making sarcastic tweets during last week's minor snow about how "folks needed to take it seriously" and how "schools should have closed". I'm sure some of his followers didn't get the sarcasm.

Like it our not, NWS needs the broadcast media to relay the message. That puts them in a hard place when it comes to public criticism of the things the broadcast media do.

As for the independent bloggers and social media alarmists out there, I've never seen anyone who could tame the internet. It is a jungle out there, and I see no way to rein it in.
 
rdale said:
I feel your pain Warren - but you keep mentioning "prevent" as if there is something that could have been done xx years ago to stop it. That's simply not realistic. Nor is it today.

If you read comments for those who follow the hypecasters, they could care less about verification. I applaud your efforts Dan, but I have absolutely no doubt they'll be a waste of time and energy. It's like trying to tell a InfoWars.com reader that FEMA doesn't have secret concentration camps. Heck - mention the Farmers Almanac as a joke and you'll get drilled.
Click to expand...

Yes, very good points.

I do believe that intervention regarding bogus forecasts does work. I cannot recall the individual's name, but the NWS issued a statement several years ago when someone continuously posted fake forecasts. I believe this action stopped the activity. It's also up to Facebook, Twitter and other sites to close the accounts of chronic offenders -- as they are attempting to do with fake news reports. I see the day coming when individuals are taken to court when they issue fake forecasts or spotter reports resulting in mass panic, injury or death.
 
That was Kevin Martin. It didn't stop him at all, that just encouraged his followers and he had tens of thousands of people going to his page.

I still can't see how a fake forecast can do harm, and until that happens not sure how that would result in a court case.
 
rdale said:
I still can't see how a fake forecast can do harm...
Click to expand...

That's a joke, right?

Hype forecast: TORNADO OUTBREAK TOMORROW!
Reaction: schools, businesses, government agencies close.
Verification: few or no tornadoes
Cost: Missed school, lost revenue, public services absent.
Harm:
-Kids left home alone if parents still work, or parents need to rush to find babysitter or daycare, which costs them money they may not have needed to spend.
-What if someone who gets paid by the hour has their work close when they need that money for food, rent, pay off debt etc?
-What if someone depended on that government agency that closed down for the day?
 
Jeff,

I understand your example of how this *could* happen. Do you have an example (news article or something) of where this actually happened?

I my experience, nobody who makes decisions on closing schools or other public services makes those decisions based upon fake news. Yes, some businesses might. But generally public offices and schools listen to the NWS. And usually businesses make the decision based upon TV meteorologists or the apps on their phone. In many cases, they just look out the window and decide.

Now again, this is just my experience. I'm curious if fake news has ever caused the kind of reaction that you are saying. Yes, fake news can cause a lot of talk and speculation. But I honestly believe that real decisions - whether to delay/close/leave early - are made from real information.

I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm saying I do not personally know of a situation where this has actually happened.
 
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