Snow In Central Florida?

[Randy Zipser]

The screenshot below is from this morning's (2026-01-29) Area Forecast Discussion from the Tampa Bay, FL NWS office (KTBW). It calls for possible snow flurries in my area (Citrus County) down to the Tampa Bay region late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Not unheard of in these parts, but will be only the fourth time I have ever seen falling frozen precipitation in FL (should this forecast verify). "CAA" stands for "Cold Air Advection" in the last paragraph, for non-meteorologist readers.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of Florida have a relatively rare synoptic setup that can allow light snowfall on the peninsula. In the Tampa Bay area it's called "Gulf effect snowfall" because it is analogous to the "lake effect snow" events in Buffalo, NY, but on a much weaker and smaller-area scale. For this to happen, however, a very large differential is necessary between the sea-surface temperatures (which right now are in the mid-60s F in the Gulf right off the west coast) and overlying air temps (could be down into the low 20s F this weekend)...a 40 degree difference. However, the surface winds need to be just light enough to bring the "overrunning-generated" cloud layer onshore, which is why this happens only near the coast and not further inland. It is quite rare, as I'm in my mid-70s and have only witnessed this setup three times. Everything meteorologically must phase just right; but when it does, the lawns can be completely covered with a light dusting of white. I'll take some pics at daybreak Sunday as soon as it's light enough and post here if it does snow (I'm about 15 miles away from the Gulf coastline).

 

[Dan Robinson]

If I were still able to cover winter weather professionally, this would be a no-brainer trip. There might actually be a high bridge icing risk south of Orlando if precip at sub-29F temps were to occur - that's simply insane to ponder!