Severe Weather Possible In the Midwest Next Week??

[Brandon Sullivan]

Well I sure was about to throw in the hat for the year..... But I have been paying attention to my local offices AFD's and noticed they kept talking about thunder chances...

SPC mentions that possibility also! WRF shows some CAPE and nice LI values over the area on 0z monday. Anyone else been looking at this? Granted, nothing too impressive, but interesting to see if we can squeeze another small event out..

 

[Maggie Kahman]

Isnt it kinda late in the season?? Can i see the information, please? Im curious.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Yes, Maggie it is a little late. But we must remember that severe weather can and has happened in every month in the year. I Pm'D you all the info about next weeks forecasts. So I dont rehash forecasts on the thread. Yep.

But no, I am not all excited yet. Just wanted others opinions.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'm not trying to be Buzz Killington here, but the Monday 0z WRF shows insufficient Cape and Shear to sustain supercells (at least for very long). I guess if there is some weather possible its worth keeping an eye on though.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Its Ok Skip. I agree..

Just for CLARIFICATION.. The 0z Monday WRF Showed me..

700J/KG CAPE and -4.0 LI's.. Granted nothing impressive. BUT for middle/early november, can you complain? I will take what I can get guys. If winter doesnt want to come yet, then I wont complain...

 

[rdale]

0Z Monday is Sunday evening - I'm thinking that's not quite "next week" and more likely falls within the 7-day requirement to be in the forecasting section... In any case - given a glance at other models, I'd have to put the kibash on Illinois getting a chase day out of the event.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Hey, November isn't always a slouch. I'll take one of these again:

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I was simply hinting at the possibility of the weather NEXT WEEK, and only chose to highlight sunday night's possibilities. And remember Sunday is the first day in the week if ya look at a calender. Anyways, its ok Rdale, I made sure my thread was in the right place. Thanks Though!

As Rdale stated, IL may not be the favored area at this time. Which is why the such broad area "Midwest"

Yes Skip, I would like one of them too! Don't plan on that though..

It is worth noting the Theta-E values in the area.. A well defined ridge of higher values encompassing the area.

Few more model runs should make or break it. Trying out the new model viewing software tonight. Good practice for it.

 

[Maggie Kahman]

It sure would be nice to get one more decent storm in before the season winds down. Im going through withdrawals over here, people!

 

[Bob Hartig]

I've been watching it for the past few days. Best I can say right now is, there will be storms somewhere Monday and/or Tuesday. Other than that, the GFS has been all over the map with it. It's still a ways out, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

What software are you using, Brandon?

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Hey Bob.

I am using MeteOs V 1.0 and I must say I love it!