Michael Thompson
EF3
ITA CAT5 with winds of 295kph (JTWC were predicting 305kph) has the potential to be nasty if the GFS and JTWC scenarios occur. Both these US models have ITA skimming land north of Cairns before moving over ocean again. Worse case is ITA could still be CAT 2 over Cairns, a city of over 140,000 people. The centre of Cairns is particularly low and even a 2m storm surge would see extensive flooding.
The Australian Bureau forecast track favours a more SW route, weakening ITA substantially with a longer and more inland land traverse before bringing it back over ocean in a much weakened state.
So basically it will get down to how long ITA stays over land.
Cooktown is the closest town to landfall, expected in 6-10 hours. Cooktown is named after Captain Cook whose ship Endeavour hit reefs offshore and this is the river he pulled ashore to repair the boat, and also possibly becoming first white fella to tangle with a croc.
The forum link below has lots of noise, but will also have live updates from people living in far north Queensland.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubb...252824/gonew/1/Severe_Tropical_Cyclone_Ita_97
The Australian Bureau forecast track favours a more SW route, weakening ITA substantially with a longer and more inland land traverse before bringing it back over ocean in a much weakened state.
So basically it will get down to how long ITA stays over land.
Cooktown is the closest town to landfall, expected in 6-10 hours. Cooktown is named after Captain Cook whose ship Endeavour hit reefs offshore and this is the river he pulled ashore to repair the boat, and also possibly becoming first white fella to tangle with a croc.
The forum link below has lots of noise, but will also have live updates from people living in far north Queensland.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubb...252824/gonew/1/Severe_Tropical_Cyclone_Ita_97
