SE Queensland, Australia -15th Oct 2011 - Possible Supercells (Forecast)

Michael Thompson

Michael Thompson

EF3
Joined
Mar 19, 2004
Messages
250
Location
Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Forgive me if this should be in target area.

The next few hours ( say 4-6 hours from post time) should see development of wide spread storms in SE Queensland. Supercells with large hail are possible, tornadoes are rare here, even with supercells, but this area has had F3 tornadoes.

At present (10am QLD) an overnight band of storms is just clearing offshore and sunshine should return in the next couple of hours, Lift Index figures of -8C and CAPE of 2000-3000 and a mid upper level cold pool should ensure storms in behind the clearing by early afternoon.

What is different from a Aussie POV is that the wind shear is at the adequate levels to get some rotation going.

Models are here
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormc...011101418&chart=li&loop=no&start=&=#stormcast

I would (if I could ) be targeting about 500 kms north of Brisbane and the highest CAPE to swap lower instability for much better shear.

If any night owls want to follow the action our primitive radar is at

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/

plus the usual noisey banter at, soory you will need to sort 'wheat from chaff' here.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/forums/22/1/SE_QLD_NE_NSW

Regards
 
Simon Andersen said:
Is there anyway you can see storm reports other than WZ? Like SPC Storm Reports? I've only seen monthly summaries by the BOM.
Click to expand...

Not really, sorry. The Bureau will issue severe warnings, but there are issued when a storm has been identfied.

This is the link I would watch for the warnings

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

There is no convective outlook as such.
 
Quite a substantial line of storms going on Brisbane's radar. Best isolated storm appears southeast of Redcliffe over water at the moment. Warning representations are rather interesting.

Thanks for the heads up!

Chip
 
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