Proposed changes to the Saffir-Simpson Scale

[Bart_Comstock]

It looks like NOAA is contemplating changing the name of the scale and meaning of each category in the scale to only be a reflection of the wind speeds found in the storm as apposed to what kind of storm surge is also associated with each category.

The proposal to drop storm surge heights from the scale and change it to the "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale" was generated due to the fact that the scale does not include many factors other than the wind speed into account when suggesting the height of the surge that will accompany a storm.

However, hurricane size (extent of hurricane force winds), local bathymetry (depth of near-shore waters), and topographic forcing can also be important in forecasting storm surge. Moreover, other aspects of hurricanes - such as the system's forward speed and angle to the coast - also impact the storm surge that is produced. For example, the very large Hurricane Ike (with hurricane force winds extending as much as 125 mi from the center) in 2008 made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane and had peak storm surge values of 15-20 ft. In contrast, tiny Hurricane Charley (with hurricane force winds extending at most 25 mi from the center) struck Florida in 2004 as a Category 4 hurricane and produced a peak storm surge of only 6-7 ft. These storm surge values were substantially outside of the ranges suggested in the original scale.

They hope that if the changes are implemented that it will lower the amount of public confusion and misinformation of the severity a storms surge will be and how large of an area it will effect. Personaly I think this is a great idea but only if it will coincide with proper education for the public on the threat of storm surge and the fact that the changed scale no longer will suggest what kind of surge to expect.

To read the full article that was posted on the NHC's site just click the following link.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

 

[rdale]

Looks like a continuation of this proposal: http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18713

 

[Jason Bolt]

Yeah, what were you thinking starting a new thread! You should have gone digging in the attic to pull out rdale's thread from a year ago

From a warning standpoint, the proposal makes sense. The problem is going to be in the "proper education of the public". I'm not convinced more than 10% of the public understands the current scale, and I don't think more education will be successful. It seems all the masses understand is "1, meh I don't care", "3, hmm I might watch the news tonight!" "5, it gonna be bad!". Don't count on pubic education. Still, anything that improves the classification based on true danger to the public will be a good thing.

 

[rdale]

You should have gone digging in the attic to pull out rdale's thread from a year ago

That wouldn't have made much sense. But it does make it easier to continue the discussion to have the previous chatter around. Horses only live once

 

[Bart_Comstock]

That wouldn't have made much sense. But it does make it easier to continue the discussi to have the previous chatter around. Horses only live once

The article I posted is not announcing a new scale all together or a full on replacement of the Saffir-Simpson Scale which your article was discussing. Rather it is just pointing out the proposed changes that will most likely be installed into the current scale. That is why I did not post in the existing thread you made last year or tag it for continuation as it seemed to be a thread that was discussion the proposal of an entirely new scale and this is just to discuss the changes to the existing one.

 

[rdale]

That is why I did not post in the existing thread you made last year or tag it for continuation as it seemed to be a thread that was discussion the proposal of an entirely new scale and this is
just to discuss the changes to the existing one.

Actually if you read over the earlier thread, there were suggestions about modifying the current scale too. The link you posted was first added about 6 months ago, they are still taking comments until the end of this month if you want to submit official input.

 

[Scott Overpeck]

From a warning standpoint, the proposal makes sense. The problem is going to be in the "proper education of the public". I'm not convinced more than 10% of the public understands the current scale, and I don't think more education will be successful. It seems all the masses understand is "1, meh I don't care", "3, hmm I might watch the news tonight!" "5, it gonna be bad!". Don't count on pubic education. Still, anything that improves the classification based on true danger to the public will be a good thing.

I understand where you are coming from, but "proper education of the public" as you put it, is really the foundation of hurricane preparedness. Training county officials and EMs is the easy part because they want to know how to be prepared ahead of time. The public needs to have this attitude as well, and some do. We had over 2000 people attend a hurricane preparedness workshop in Houston last May where the changes to the SS scale were discussed. I even discussed these changes in several preparedness talks this past summer. My point is that you need to give the public a little more credit in trying to understand how to be prepared for hurricanes. There is a segment of the population that does care and wants to be prepared. As a meteorologist who gets out to talk about hurricane preparedness, I have to trust that the people I am talking to care about what I have to tell them. The segment of the population who do not care usually will try to be prepared a day or two before landfall and it is too late. They then blame us for their roof being torn off by the wind or them losing the bottom floor of their house due to surge or them not having enough time to evacuate, etc. Unfortunately it takes a hurricane strike to get people's attention to be prepared ahead of time for the next hurricane. I wish it were not this way, but that is what we are up against in the business of hurricane preparedness. We do the best we can with what we got. And trust me, we put a lot of emphasis not only on the new wind scale but on new products that better convey the threats of storm surge. It is a up hill battle, but you keep trying to educate in hopes that more people will be prepared well in advance of a hurricane threat.