Price collapse or 5 dollar gas…

[Robert Edmonds]

So for the past few years when I’ve been planning for storm chasing, I’ve been thankfully over budgeting. If I thought the price for gas would be ~3 dollars a gallon, I would budget for 3.50, thinking it would never get that high. Somehow, I’d always end up paying for the price that I thought would never get that high. So what scares me about next year, I started thinking if it was 4 dollars a gallon this summer I should budget for 5 dollars a gallon next year. However, with prices currently falling, while yet on average still higher than last year, there have been whispers of perhaps a coming price collapse on oil. One article even suggested we have small chance of seeing the return of less than 2 dollar a gallon gas. While, I am certainly not thinking this is highly likely, I thought the discussion on future gas prices may this time be interesting (i.e. maybe we will not all be forecasting the price to keep going up).

While I don’t think this is likely, looking back I could see this as marginally possible. Why? Well, consumers have changed their driving habits. Using myself as an example, unless it’s a long distance trip, I now drive a scooter everywhere. Combined with the possible economic slow down, this might slow oil demand globally.

So what is your take on the situation? I’ll still likely be over budgeting, but it would sure be nice to be chasing the plains with gas prices back when I started chasing, only six years ago.

 

[rdale]

Chasing with a scooter would be a little fun - but otherwise I don't think there's any way to predict what the economy / gas prices will look like in a year.

Although this is the "advanced" meteorology room vs the beginner

 

[Robert Edmonds]

Although this is the "advanced" meteorology room vs the beginner

Though I'll get more comments on this subject than my computational modeling thread...

 

[Jason Boggs]

Although gas in getting cheap right now, You know the bigwigs will find a reason to up it in the spring and summer when more motorists are traveling. I guarantee you gas will be at least 3.50 a gallon by May 1st. I don't see a reason why it wouldn't be that high. In my opinion, people aren't really driving any different than they have in years past. Sure, you see a few people going slower and driving smaller vehicles, but as a whole it hasn't changed. Again, I will be budgeting for at least 3.50 a gallon by May 1st.

I just see this cheap gas as a ray of hope, and the bigwigs are just doing this to shut up the average American consumer. Were already used to high gas prices, so why would they remain cheap for very long?

As far as gas getting below 2.00 a gallon.... THIS IS WHAT I THINK

 

[Shane Adams]

I've always had to scrape chase to chase, so budgeting isn't even a concept for me. The only difference is, as gas prices rise, that just means I eat less and less after fuel. Eventually I'm sure it will get to the point where, to sustain my chasing, I'll have to give up the one remaining luxury I afford myself in life, which is booze. Oh well.

 

[Tony Laubach]

As far as gas getting below 2.00 a gallon.... THIS IS WHAT I THINK

it scares me to think you would look for this.. now this catchy 80s tune is stuck in my head.. LOL

I'm enjoying the prices as they fall.. regardless the politics or reasoning behind it, its now and its a relief. What happens next summer will happen next summer, and while I attempt to budget, its never something I do very accurately. So with that, I am just going to enjoy the savings now and let it fall as it may in the coming months.

 

[Joel Wright]

I'd just continue to budget for $3.50-$4.00/gal gas. Even with the prices declining now, and the possibility that they will continue to decline. There's still a good possibility they will jump way back up next spring. Possibly even higher than what they were this past season. Best case scenario is the prices stay lower than this past season, and you'd have some extra funds for whatever. Maybe a few more steaks after chases.

 

[Jason Boggs]

it scares me to think you would look for this.. now this catchy 80s tune is stuck in my head.. LOL

Yeah, I was a big Debbie Gibson fan when I was younger. Shhh, don't tell anyone. I agree though, it is a catchy tune.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

For me Budgeting and Chasing don't even belong in the same sentence. How can I budget for a "chase season" when I can't tell you the day of a chase where I am going to end up and how much I'm gonna spend. Depending on the year you could chase 50 times and put on 30,000 miles or you might chase 20 times and put on 10,000 it just seems there are far to many other variables to worry about the price of gas.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

For me Budgeting and Chasing don't even belong in the same sentence. How can I budget for a "chase season" when I can't tell you the day of a chase where I am going to end up and how much I'm gonna spend. Depending on the year you could chase 50 times and put on 30,000 miles or you might chase 20 times and put on 10,000 it just seems there are far to many other variables to worry about the price of gas.

The majority of chasers chase a set number of day (usually 2 or 3 weeks) so budgeting for gas is rather simple and very useful.

This past spring I budgeted 750 miles per day at $3.50/gal and it worked out fairly well. I try to budget slightly higher than the avg. miles I travel per day and I usually end up over-budgeting, but that leaves more money for other stuff.

 

[Jason Boggs]

For me Budgeting and Chasing don't even belong in the same sentence. How can I budget for a "chase season" when I can't tell you the day of a chase where I am going to end up and how much I'm gonna spend. Depending on the year you could chase 50 times and put on 30,000 miles or you might chase 20 times and put on 10,000 it just seems there are far to many other variables to worry about the price of gas.

Yeah, I really don't have a budget system either. I usually just take out about $300 a month from my check and put it away. At the start of the season I'll have about $1500-$1800 saved up which is usually more than enough. I also carry more than enough cash with me in case of emergencies such as breakdowns or other mishaps.

It sure would be nice to have under $3 a gallon gas this spring, but it won't happen. Prices will go up on the excuse that consumers will be traveling more, thus the higher demand for gas.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

The majority of chasers chase a set number of day (usually 2 or 3 weeks) so budgeting for gas is rather simple and very useful.

I second that, except for one or 2 extra chase days that I can sneak in...

 

[rdale]

The majority of chasers chase a set number of day (usually 2 or 3 weeks)

Majority? I'd think it's minority... Most chasers probably chase when conditions are ripe. Interesting poll question?

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'm actually thinking about buying this for a chase vehicle. Then I won't have to budget at all!!! Of course I will modify the upholstery to a more "suitable" color. Not only will I get sick gas mileage, I will be able to plow down vehicles and tripods in the middle of the road without missing a step.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

The majority of chasers chase a set number of day (usually 2 or 3 weeks) so budgeting for gas is rather simple and very useful.

Perhaps, but the majority, actually ALL plains chasers I know, don't chase a set number of days, they chase when its worth chasing, so budgeting for gas is not simple nor important.

Though for the vacationers, even if you know how many days you are gonna chase, you have no idea how many miles you are gonna put on, using your 750 miles a day (which I can definitely see being high) would merely mean a $400 or so difference in your budget for every $1 change in the price of gas. I'd say its pretty likely for a $400 error in budget to occur due to your 750 miles a day prediction being off, so rather gas is $3.00 a gallon or $4.00 is really no big deal.