Pacific: Hurricane Jova (Mexico)

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Besides the disappointments in the Atlantic the past Month, the Eastern Pacific is alive and kicking with Hurricane Jova - Poised to slam into Mexico (probably north of Manzanillo and 100 miles south of Puerto Vallarta) late Tuesday (Oct 11-12).

Jova is now at 120 MPH / 960 MB and is about 36 hours from Landfall as of Oct 10 at 5 AM.

I was looking at flights into Puerto Vallarta and they were not too bad. I can't go because of work commitments, but I am wondering who else is? Josh M - You are probably already there ;-)

LOL ... Ofcourse he is: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/27089-chasing-jova

Unfortunately, the storm looks like it may come in at night, but can be Cat-4 and very - VERY dangerous. Highway Mex-200 is the only route south out of Puerto Vallarta and winds through mountainous coastal terrain between there and Manzanilla. This is prone to mudslides and can easily be made impassible.

If I were to choose a target, I would head into Manzanilla (or even as far south as Manzanillo Municipality) where there is substantial population, hotels, and both are fairly safe tourist-type cities (safe from corruption but I'm sure stuff will be flying when Jova changes that)!

Satellite presentation is "as good as it gets" ... Symmetrical "buzz-saw" and red donut CDO with a clear 15-20 nm wide eye.

LOL ... Only DREAMING to see something like this in the Atlantic basin (and LESS than 1,500 miles away from any land) this year ;-(

 

[MClarkson]

Not speaking spanish and being a poor grad student I am not going after this one, although it is tempting. A 20 hour drive south from Tucson? Real tempting. I have been in the large lumbering surge storms, I want to see a compact windstorm, and this looks like it has the potential for a fairly decent landfall. The model spread has increased a bit and jogged west, so I would go to Puerto Vallarta and scout south along route 200 from there as necessary. Just glancing at google maps its not the most populated region with few good buildings to use as shields once you get away from the tourist section of the city(especially for a slight chance of upper end hurricane winds!). Also a little bit concerning(for chasers) is the latest GFS staying offshore. The eye has also become a bit ragged in the last few frames.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Chasers Jim Edds, Josh Morgerman, and even Mike Theiss were chasing Jova in Mexico.

Landfall was near Midnight PDT on Oct 11-12 and near Careyes (NW of Manzanilla / Playa de Oro) at a bit under 100 MPH sustained.

All three chasers (such as Josh on http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.p...9-chasing-jova) are in their "blackout" period "after the storm". This is where cell service down / power outages prevent any outbound communicates, explaining why their posts just "died" the past few hours.

Most likely they're OK.

Update (10/13): Wow ... This site is really - really slow.

Anyway, here's Josh M's post on hurricane Jova...

Hey, guys--

I'm back in Puerto Vallarta, and I'm going to get some R&R this evening.

I'll post a full report tomorrow, but the basic headline is that we got squarely in the right eyewall (in Emiliano Zapata) and got totally raked. I estimate the gusts were over 100 kt and Jim-- who shot that legendary footage in Charley's eyewall and knows a good storm-- estimated them even higher. In fact, he even described it as "Charley-like". Comparing it to 'canes I've done, Jova made Cat-3 Karl last year seem like a complete joke. I was actually caught off guard by the severity of it. Driving up the coast, I was kind of expecting the cyclone to be a non-event, so it was odd to find myself panicking and ready to drop the camera and get under the car just an hour or so later, as the cyclone's small, violent wind core passed over us. I talked with residents afterward. People were surprised by Jova's severity, and multiple folks described being scared by it. (Context: Mexicans tend not to overreact to hurricanes-- they're the opposite of drama queens.)

The cyclone's center actually passed just to our W, so we weren't in the eye. But what I got out of this was even better than that-- it was awesome to be in the wind max of a strengthening 'cane. The lowest sea-level pressure the Kestrel recorded was 985.2 mb at 12:33 am. This roughly coincided with the max winds, which were blowing from the S-- so Jova's center must have been passing a few miles to our W. By 1:30 am it was easing up.

The hurricane itself was only half the adventure. Getting back to La Manzanilla was an odyssey I won't soon forget. I won't get into details now, but let's just say I walked into the hotel lobby 12 hrs later, scratched, bruised, bloodied, covered in mud, and limping. Total hurtyhurtz. :lmao:

Jova might be my best chase ever. I don't care that it wasn't a major, I don't care that it was at night-- it was a violent, scary storm. Pure awesomeness. For those who want more than the Cliffs Notes, I'll post the full report tomorrow.

P.S. I got it all on video. It was at night and I could only get what was illuminated by the car headlights-- so I pretty much shot only one view for the entire storm-- but I kept the camera rolling almost the entire time. I got a tree blowing down, a big sign post getting bent, lethal flying debris, and a bunch of other goodies-- hopefully the video captures the experience. (I haven't reviewed it yet.)

Note: Josh M, Jim E, and Mike T may not update their sites often, so you might have to check back often.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Hey, Chris!

Ha ha ha, you know me too well-- you know how I love my Mexican 'canes.

Mexico is tough chase turf-- no doubt-- and it's not for everybody. But being a Southern Californian dude, I see the Pacific coast of Mexico as my own backyard, and all those coastal resorts are very short flights for me-- so it makes sense that I'm going to go down there whenever something threatens.

Thanks for posting my chase summary from American Weather Forums. I was just about to post it here, so you saved me the trouble.

I have to say, Jova was surprisingly awesome after kind of unraveling then night before landfall. Since I got back to Puerto Vallarta this evening, I've been reviewing the satellite and microwave imagery, and it looks like the cyclone's eyewall tightened and closed off again just as it was coming ashore. It had that feeling, because the wind core was small but very strong and very sharply defined-- i.e., it wasn't preceded by hours of gales (like most hurricanes). It was a solid little system.

Heading back to California tomorrow.

Thanks for the encouragement along the way, Chris-- it was much appreciated.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Sounds like a good 'cane! It seems the days of legit and good chasing hurricanes in the US are starting to really dwindle (for many reasons). It sounds like intercepting them in Mexico is much better, obviously depending on the area. It is a challenge I imagine with water and the language barrier and can't comprehend. Some day when I am not spending countless hours studying for exams and doing homework, hopefully I will get the opportunity.

Good job Josh! I look forward to your write up and video man!

Chip

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Sounds like a good 'cane! It seems the days of legit and good chasing hurricanes in the US are starting to really dwindle (for many reasons). It sounds like intercepting them in Mexico is much better, obviously depending on the area. It is a challenge I imagine with water and the language barrier and can't comprehend. Some day when I am not spending countless hours studying for exams and doing homework, hopefully I will get the opportunity.

Good job Josh! I look forward to your write up and video man!

Chip

Thanks, Chip! I much appreciate it.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I got back to L.A. Friday and Jim finally got back to Florida last night!

I just posted a very detailed account of the chase on American Wx forums: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/27089-chasing-jova/page__view__findpost__p__1034163. It's kind of long but it has lots of nice pictures.

I consider this chase a huge success. It’s become my tradition to punch the eye. This time I didn’t get the eye, but what we got was better: the maximum winds (or close to it). It was awesome to hit the sweet spot of the right eyewall.

Here's the part Re: the meteorological aspects:

Optimal Location in Right Eyewall
I believe Jim and I were located about as optimally as possible to see the highest winds. I plotted Jova’s center positions before, during, and after landfall, as well as our position. (See diagram: .) The shortest distance from our location (19.386N 104.965W) to the vector connecting the 10-pm-CDT position (19.0N 105.2W) and the 1-am position (19.5N 105.1W) is ~9 nmi. However, Jova’s track between those two points would have been more of a curve, and when you plot that curve, it suggests we were ~8 nmi E of the center. This put us well inside the 64-kt radius (15 nmi) and probably either in (or very close to) the RMW. So I feel we pretty-much hit the bull’s eye with Jova.

• A small hurricane like this usually has an eye diameter in the 5-8-nmi range, meaning an eye radius of ~3-4 nmi. This suggests we were probably ~4-5 nmi from the E edge of the eye. I don't recall any pronounced calming or lessening during the peak.

The Center’s Closest Approach
Based on all evidence, it’s clear Jova’s center passed just to our W at about half past midnight:

• The Kestrel’s lowest pressure was 985.2 mb at 12:33 am CDT, with the pressure essentially below 986 mb from 12:26 to 12:39. (The barometer was calibrated using an altitude of 73 ft, which is what the car’s GPS system indicated.)
• The wind was blowing from the S and pretty-much maxed out between this time and about 1 am.

This corroborates perfectly with the NHC’s advisory positions, which suggest the center was just W of us at this time.

Pre-Landfall Intensification
Clearly, Jova cranked up in the final hours. Who knows why? But these images are so revealing: look at that closed eyewall just before landfall. It explains why conditions at the surface were so severe. It’s something for me to remember on future chases: significant intensity/structural fluctuations may occur between the time we lose communication and landfall.

Unfortunately, we’ll probably never know how strong Jova was at landfall, with almost no surface obs from the landfall region (except for mine and Jim’s), no recon data, no radar, and no high-res microwave imagery, even.

Vigorous Convection
Unlike other canes I've been in recently (i.e., Karl, Irene), heavy rain accompanied the highest winds in Jova. Watching those terrific eyewall gusts, you could almost feel that heavy precip mixing those high winds down to the surface. I felt like I was really seeing an illustration of how convection brings high winds.

Elevation & Terrain
Jim suggested-- and I think it’s possible-- that our elevation (~73 ft) and the nearby mountainous terrain might have played some role in augmenting the winds we experienced. This is certainly possible. That having been said, Emiliano Zapata is not Blue Hill Observatory (at 635 ft). The town is located within ~2 nmi of the ocean and was in the right eyewall, and it’s not like 73 ft is that high. Given this, the conditions we experienced were a good-- although obviously not perfect-- indicator of the cyclone’s intensity.

Microcane
Jova’s wind core felt very tight. We experienced minimal winds in La Manzanilla and as we drove up Highway 200 toward Emiliano Zapata. In fact, the cyclone felt like nothing until it was practically on top of us-- and really strong winds lasted maybe 2-3 hours in total. A real microcane-- very unlike Ike, where we had 12 solid hours of gales.

Large Rain Shield
The wind field was small, but the rain shield wasn't-- it rained very hard many hours before the center arrived and for many more hours after the winds had died.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Awesome post from Josh.

The "American WX" forum has it's issues though. I tried to sign-up and mityped my birthday. I got the "you need to submit a COPPA form if you are under 13" (although my birthday is in 1969, so I assume i'm a bit older than 13) ;-)

I emailed their admin / support, a few days went by, nothing.

Then I tried the same thing on a different computer. Ah, it worked ... I guess it set a cookie or something, that'll TEACH you not to fat-finger, ey?

I registered and got the confirmation email. All I wanna see is Josh's stuff, LOL, cuz I was NOT there.

Ahh, I got on with my new password and looked around, clicked on Josh's "jimand me.jpg" and BAM ... You do not have the permissions to view.

Error: You do not have permission to view this attachment

What the? Why not just keep it in good old tried and true stormtrack?

I check Jim's and Mike T's sites, nothing ... Wishing more and more I did not have to work so hard last week.

Anyway, good job on your chase, Josh ... Too bad the site you post to is garbage.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Hey, Chris!

Thanks for the kind words. I am really happy with this chase: it was a surprise treasure-- after I expected it to be crap.

I really should start publishing my accounts on my site (www.icyclone.com), but I like the interaction and peer group of a forum. I am sorry that you had these problems registering with American. I've been with the American Weather forum for years (it was previously called Eastern Weather), and I've found it to be a terrific community-- great people and really well-run. I'll bet the issue with your registration will clear up any time!

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Too bad the site you post to is garbage.

That's a little harsh. It sucks that you had such a bad experience getting onto American, but it's certainly one of the rarer issues.

I really should start publishing my accounts on my site (www.icyclone.com), but I like the interaction and peer group of a forum.

Do both! Putting it on your own site makes finding it a lot easier later compared to trying to search through a forum archive.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

That's a little harsh. It sucks that you had such a bad experience getting onto American, but it's certainly one of the rarer issues.

Do both! Putting it on your own site makes finding it a lot easier later compared to trying to search through a forum archive.

Hey Mark! At least we got Irene ;-)

Anyway, yeah I was frustrated but I am sure it's a program / setup issue that would be worked out eventually. Sorry for the harshness ... I do hear alot about American, so I'll see what happens.

As for Jova ... The higher-than-expected winds can most likely be the terrain and / or an intense band reforming around the rather small center of the storm. These can take a 100 MPH sustained wind and not only allow it to reach the surface efficiently (good mixing in convective environment), but downdrafts can effectively bring frequent 120+ MPH gusts out of a "seemingly" benign hurricane.

Josh describes an interesting shift in the winds (coming from the N, then resuming from the S) during the eyewall ... This had to be either an intense mini-swirl, or even a rain-wrapped tornado / vortex embedded in the eyewall.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,
As for Jova ... The higher-than-expected winds can most likely be the terrain and / or an intense band reforming around the rather small center of the storm. These can take a 100 MPH sustained wind and not only allow it to reach the surface efficiently (good mixing in convective environment), but downdrafts can effectively bring frequent 120+ MPH gusts out of a "seemingly" benign hurricane.

Josh describes an interesting shift in the winds (coming from the N, then resuming from the S) during the eyewall ... This had to be either an intense mini-swirl, or even a rain-wrapped tornado / vortex embedded in the eyewall.

Yeah, I noticed in Jova that the really big bursts of wind in the eyewall were accompanied by exceptionally heavy downpours, so it was almost like you could "see" that mixing to the surface.

That wind shift was just weird-- still puzzled by it. You'll see it when I post my video, because I caught that tree blowing down, and also the reversal.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Good day all,



Hey Mark! At least we got Irene ;-)

Anyway, yeah I was frustrated but I am sure it's a program / setup issue that would be worked out eventually. Sorry for the harshness ... I do hear alot about American, so I'll see what happens.

As for Jova ... The higher-than-expected winds can most likely be the terrain and / or an intense band reforming around the rather small center of the storm. These can take a 100 MPH sustained wind and not only allow it to reach the surface efficiently (good mixing in convective environment), but downdrafts can effectively bring frequent 120+ MPH gusts out of a "seemingly" benign hurricane.

Josh describes an interesting shift in the winds (coming from the N, then resuming from the S) during the eyewall ... This had to be either an intense mini-swirl, or even a rain-wrapped tornado / vortex embedded in the eyewall.

S'all good, and yeah Irene was fun... just wish I had more time off to get the full experience. Highly anticipating the next U.S. landfall. Watching Jova head towards Mexico gave me the chasing itch!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Hey, guys! My footage of Hurricane Jova is live-- check it out!

Jova was a violent hurricane, and its wind core passed right over us. As ferocious as it was, the cyclone was quite small-- we didn't really experience heavy winds until the center was very near. The center passed just a few miles to our W at about 12:30 am CDT, and just after that, we were pounded particularly hard by the SE eyewall. All of the footage is time-stamped, and you'll notice the winds start to really pick up around 12:44 am, steadily building in ferocity to a roaring climax at 12:57 and 12:58 am CDT.

Enjoy!

Watch video >