New England Hurricane Threat?

[Sam Sagnella]

Some of the more recent models (most notably the 20/00z NOGAPS) have shown Wilma moving up the eastern seaboard and into New England. Now I know the models have been rather divergent in their solutions of late, and that this isn't something that should cause immediate alarm, but this isn't a scenario I can completely discount. This is a situation definitely bears watching, as the 00z NGP has a hurricane (or strong extratropical low) directly over NYC in 5.5 days.

I don't know whether to be excited or concerned, but I'm definitely feeling more of the former.

 

[MClarkson]

Im thinking something along the lines of a strong extratropical low. The waters are cold. Both the 1938 and 44 storms were in the middle of september, a full month ago. Coastal locations on the south shore of new england or the cape might be worth a scouting next weak, depending on if it comes at us or goes off shore.

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm chasing if it heads up this way. Yesterday I was thinking it was going to happen by Monday, but now its getting dragged out. Who knows. I guess we'll discuss more if comes closer.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Actually, it looks like there could be some impact on the New England Region. Some models are suggesting (at this time), that Wilma, will hit FL, and then go NNE, in the mean time, it will take a swing west, and potentially slam New England.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Actually, now that it appears that the first trough will bypass Wilma, the threat to New England seems to have diminished significantly. I doubt the second system will acheive the negative tilt necessary for a New England landfall with this type of setup.

Because the timeline will be delayed for the reasons mentioned above, and therefore any potential New England landfall would occur around mid-week, I am now hoping that Wilma doesn't impact the region. I'm flying to Okla on Thursday to visit friends and will be really pissed if it gets cancelled.

 

[HAltschule]

18z GFDL gives a Wilma landfall in Central Maine in a few days as a CAT 2/3 hurricane. While likely not that strong, a 3rd lanfall in New England looks more likely...esp. with th further north and west track she is on.

 

[B Ozanne]

Its great to see the continuity between NWS office. Taunton, MA and Mount Holly, NJ both have special weather statments up regarding the complex storm system while Upton, NY has done nothing yet.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Its great to see the continuity between NWS office. Taunton, MA and Mount Holly, NJ both have special weather statments up regarding the complex storm system while Upton, NY has done nothing yet.

I'm in Upton's CWA and it is frustrating to say the least. This is what they had to say in their latest AFD:

WE WANT EVERYONE IN THE ENTIRE CWA TO STAY ABREAST OF THE SITUATION AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT DEFINITE BY ANY MEANS...THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE WITH STRONG WINDS HIGHER THAN FORECAST...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING.

 

[B Ozanne]

The problem is that there is going to be very little time for preparations if this thing pans out. Nobody in my area is on board with this. Its a brief blurb in the weather update, but nothing else.

I'm all in for a nasty nor'easter. Coastal flooding, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Which is normally not a big deal. Should the track of Wilma change by a fraction of a degree the impacts could be much worse. Instead of a fall nor'easter we'll have a significant hurricane-like storm. Some might even call it a hurricane.

Edit: What do you know. Upton just came around with a HWO for the area. They want us to "stay tuned."

 

[HAltschule]

If the computer models don't forecast the track of the storm to affect the area that way, how can you justify them forecasting it? I think they are saying that recent observed trends may call for a closer brush to the NE coastline. If that happens, then they may change the forecast to be more pessimistic. I see no problem with their forecast or discussion....

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by HAltschule
If the computer models don't forecast the track of the storm to affect the area that way, how can you justify them forecasting it? I think they are saying that recent observed trends may call for a closer brush to the NE coastline. If that happens, then they may change the forecast to be more pessimistic. I see no problem with their forecast or discussion....

At the time of the original post, Upton had strong wording in their AFD (stating that they want everyone to keep abreast of the situation), but failed to issue an HWO. It was issued minutes after the post by Bill.

 

[B Ozanne]

The big problem right now is that everyone is looking at the official hurricane track which is well offshore. I am confident that it will stay offshore too. The threat of a nor'easter bombing out is still there. While the NWS has a good handle on this complex system that is going to evolve. The national media doesn't quite grasp the nor'easter part of the equation, and they just focus on the hurricane.

Upton NWS is coming around and they are treating the event over the next few days with some respect now.