NCAR MPAS pulls out of completion for next gen model?

[Randy Jennings]

The following was posted in Cliff Mass’s blog yesterday (see bottom of page at http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/us-numerical-weather-prediction-is.html):

I disappointed by a NOAA presentation this morning regarding testing between the two global model finalists: the NOAA/GFDL FV3 and the NCAR MPAS. I will blog further about this, but a few major points:

1. NCAR has pulled out because they feel the testing is inappropriate, and I have to agree.
2. All test models had to use the old GFS (current model) physics which are completely inappropriate at high resolution. In fact, GFS physics doesn't work well at any resolution. Like testing new racing cars on a muddy road--you can't do it.
3. The future of global prediction is at convection-allowing resolution (4 km or less grid spacing). But these resolutions were hardly tested (48 out of the 50 tests were at 13 km grid spacing or more).
4. Some of the results were clearly bogus, like the radically poor results of a 13-km forecast run and a hurricane simulation that had rain in the eye of the MPAS hurricane). Something was clearly wrong with the tests.
5. The testing had no vision of testing a configuration that might be used operationally in ten years (e.g., convection allowing over the globe). It was all about testing a configuration nearly identical to the current GFS.

It isn't clear to me if they pulled out of only this round of testing or the entire competition.

 

[rdale]

It's pretty much a done deal. NCEP isn't interested in the best modeling - they're interested in their modeling. FV3 for the win (well, for the US as a whole it's a loss.)

 

[Mark Blue]

As the excuses are eliminated one by one eventually someone has to be held accountable. Partnering with academia to leverage expertise in certain areas only makes sense to me. Keeping future development under wraps and in house sounds like someone is trying to prolong their substandard methodologies as long as possible because they simply don't know any better. Why not hire Panasonic as a consultant who would fill the obvious knowledge gaps and help get us back on track? It makes no sense having super computers in place if they're being underutilized. Man, what a cluster!


Sent from my iPad using Stormtrack mobile app